Bloomberg Surveillance 2/23/2026
Speakers
Christian Love — Analyst at Piper Sandler
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Trade Policy Chaos: The Supreme Court struck down the "IEEPA" tariff authority, leading President Trump to immediately invoke "Section 122" (balance of payments authority) to impose a 15% global tariff (up from the previous 10%). This is a temporary 150-day measure, acting as a bridge to more durable Section 232/301 investigations.
- Market Reaction: The "Liberation Day" rally from Friday has been killed. Markets are entering a "Plateau of Uncertainty" regarding refunds for past tariffs ($170bn potential) and the durability of new ones.
- Geopolitics: Tensions with Iran are at an inflection point with a massive US military buildup; a strike is viewed as increasingly likely if talks fail Thursday.
- AI & Tech: Despite macro noise, the AI capex narrative remains robust. Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to outperform after recent underperformance relative to memory stocks like Micron (MU).
- Private Credit Stress: Concerns are mounting around liquidity in private credit (specifically Blue Owl), though analysts argue the asset class has dry powder.
Trade Ideas
NVDA has underperformed year-to-date while memory stocks like MU are up ~50%. Vinh notes NVDA has secured a workaround for China, contributing $3-4 billion in revenue, and faces no viable competitor to its GPU. The underperformance is a positioning issue, not a fundamental one. As investors rotate back to AI leaders ahead of earnings, the valuation gap between NVDA and the high-flying memory sector will close. The "China risk" is now better understood and priced in. LONG NVDA and MU (as part of the broader AI hardware trade). Disappointing guidance on Wednesday or tighter export controls from the Trump administration.
Tchir observes that Bitcoin "seems closer and closer to looking down further" amidst the messy market signals. In a risk-off, high-uncertainty environment where liquidity is being questioned (private credit, tariff refunds), speculative assets like Crypto lose their bid. SHORT / AVOID Bitcoin. A sudden return of "risk-on" sentiment or specific pro-crypto regulatory news.
Blue Owl (OWL) is facing scrutiny regarding retail liquidity and exposure to AI/Software lending. They recently sold assets to return capital. While Love maintains an overweight rating, the commentary highlights a "sentiment divide" and potential "headline risk" for retail-heavy private credit firms. The gating of funds or forced asset sales creates a negative feedback loop for the stock price in the near term. WATCH / AVOID until liquidity concerns stabilize. If the asset sales are viewed as highly accretive or if the Fed cuts rates aggressively, alleviating pressure on borrowers.
Priya Misra
Portfolio Manager, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Misra notes we are in a "plateau of uncertainty" regarding Section 122 tariffs and potential refunds. Tchir adds that the "Liberation Day" trade (tariff removal) was killed by the immediate reimposition of 15% tariffs. Uncertainty kills hiring and CapEx (outside of AI). The economy is resilient but not re-accelerating. If uncertainty persists, the Fed is more likely to cut rates to cushion the labor market. Bonds provide the necessary ballast in a portfolio during policy chaos. LONG US Treasuries. Yields have room to fall as the "no landing" scenario gets priced out in favor of a "soft landing" or policy-error slowdown. A sudden resolution to trade policy or a spike in inflation data.
Peter Tchir
Head of Macro Strategy, Academy Securities
Tchir states, "Right now I could probably sell China on the pop, more nastiness to come I think." While the IEEPA ruling initially looked good for China, the immediate pivot to Section 122 and the threat of "embargoes" or license revocations means the trade war is escalating, not ending. The "pop" in Asian markets is a false dawn. SHORT Chinese Equities. Significant stimulus from Beijing or a surprise diplomatic breakthrough during Trump's April visit.
Darrell White
CEO of BMO Capital Markets (Mining/Metals Conference Host)
There is a "confluence of forces" driving demand for critical minerals (power up, AI, re-industrialization). Capital providers are active, and M&A pipelines are full. Despite tariff noise, the structural demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths is agnostic to short-term policy. The "friend-shoring" narrative (US/Canada integration) favors North American miners. LONG Critical Minerals and North American Mining. Global recession crushing commodity demand.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 23, 2026, features John Vinh, Peter Tchir, Christian Love, Priya Misra, Darrell White discussing NVDA, MU, BTC, OWL, TLT, IEF, GOVT, MCHI, FXI, REMX, XME, COPX. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: John Vinh, Peter Tchir, Christian Love, Priya Misra, Darrell White · Tickers: NVDA, MU, BTC, OWL, TLT, IEF, GOVT, MCHI, FXI, REMX, XME, COPX