Name: Why Isn't Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park
Uploaded: 2025-12-23T07:11:09+00:00
Duration: 2783 s

Speakers

Jeff Park — Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise

Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Jeff Park joins hosts Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg to discuss why Bitcoin is stuck despite gold and commodities making highs. Jeff argues Bitcoin needs volatility to return to drive upside, expects higher BTC volatility and more decoupling in 2026, and remains a long-term accumulator. The conversation also covers prediction-market growth, privacy as a 2026 meta, retail trading edges, and public beneficiaries such as Coinbase and Robinhood.

Bitcoin has lagged gold and commodities despite the debasement narrative.
Jeff says Bitcoin needs higher volatility to reignite reflexive upside.
He remains long-term constructive and says to accumulate BTC.
2026 predictions include higher BTC volatility, over $100 billion prediction-market volume, and a privacy revival.
Retail edge is framed around extreme-odds prediction markets and ideological or national-priority flows.
Coinbase and Robinhood are cited as public beneficiaries of 2026 crypto and prediction-market themes.

Ideas

Jeff Park Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise 3:01

Bitcoin needs higher volatility

Jeff argues Bitcoin needs both implied and realized volatility to rise for price to make meaningful new highs; without volatility, the reflexivity that draws young, retail, and institutional flow stalls. He predicts Bitcoin volatility will be higher in 2026 than in 2025 and hopes it becomes more decoupled from traditional assets.

Jeff Park Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise 12:50

Accumulate underpriced Bitcoin long-term

Jeff says he wants to continue accumulating Bitcoin because it is underpriced relative to other assets and the long-term thesis remains intact: Bitcoin offers a singular clearing price, true fungibility, easier self-custody and fractional spending, and wealth can be stored in your head in a way governments cannot tax, unlike physical gold. A structural flow catalyst, potentially rotation from gold or silver after the debasement trade, could trigger a reflexive move higher.

Jeff Park Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise 41:18

Prediction-market volume will double

Jeff predicts prediction-market volume will more than double to over $100 billion notional in 2026 as Gemini, Coinbase, Robinhood, and others enter. He views event betting as a natural human activity and thinks prediction markets can revive self-custody because users are betting on views without needing a custodian.

Jeff Park Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise 42:48

Privacy becomes a 2026 crypto meta

Jeff predicts privacy will become a more important crypto meta in 2026 after being compromised by institutionalization. He argues people want selective disclosure rather than full disclosure, and as zero-knowledge technology becomes useful it will solve regulatory-compliance problems; he names Zcash as a possible beneficiary but does not guarantee a run.

Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 44:12

Monero benefits from privacy revival

Avi says Monero is among the best-performing crypto assets over the last five years because it has a real, genuine privacy use case. He is heartened that the privacy narrative is returning to crypto's roots.

Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 44:55

Coinbase is obvious 2026 trade

Jonah calls Coinbase stock the most obvious trade if the 2026 themes of volatility, gambling and prediction markets, and privacy play out. He is also very bullish because Coinbase bought his angel investment in The Clearing Company.

Jeff Park Head of Alpha Strategies, Bitwise 45:06

Robinhood benefits from prediction-market growth

Jeff says not to discount Robinhood either, as it is another public beneficiary of the 2026 prediction-market, gambling, and retail-trading themes and has made a great acquisition.

Why Isn't Bitcoin Going Up? | Jeff Park

Summary

Ideas

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