Bitcoin Breaks $95k, Crypto’s Valuation Problem, & The Path To Real On-Chain Users
Speakers
Santiago R. Santos
— Co-Host, Empire / Founder, Inversion Capital
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Summary
The hosts and Santiago Roel Santos discuss Bitcoin near $95K amid a broad crypto selloff, arguing most non-Bitcoin crypto is overvalued relative to revenue and active users. Santiago favors Bitcoin, AI, cash-flow businesses, and applications over infrastructure, while warning of 80-90% drawdowns in many altcoins. Jonah and Avi add trading views on a Bitcoin bounce, short altcoins, DeFi relative value, Hyperliquid buybacks, and a year-end stock-market bounce.
- Bitcoin is discussed as a distinct asset with digital-gold and macro-hedge appeal and institutional adoption.
- Most non-Bitcoin crypto is criticized for high valuations, insufficient users and revenue, and weak value capture.
- The guest argues blockspace and infrastructure are commoditized and value should accrue to applications and deployers.
- AI and cash-flow businesses such as Nvidia and Western Union are presented as better value than crypto.
- Altcoins and Ethereum are seen as vulnerable to large drawdowns, with shorting altcoins discussed.
- Hyperliquid and select DeFi protocols are mentioned as possible quality or real-revenue exceptions.
- Macro stimulus and debasement are cited as reasons to hold Bitcoin, and a short-term bounce is expected.
- The hosts also expect a stock-market bounce into year-end despite the broad deleveraging.
Ideas
AI offers better cash-flow value than crypto
Crypto is no longer the main character; AI is. AI has clearer cash-flow and valuation stories, and he would rather own AI than crypto. He specifically cites Nvidia trading at 30-40 times earnings versus Ethereum at roughly 200 times sales.
Ethereum overvalued; value capture broken
He cannot justify Ethereum at a roughly $400B valuation: the $1-2B of fees are non-recurring and dry up in bear markets, users and liquidity churn and get liquidated, L2s capture value away from the L1, and ETH trades at an absurd roughly 200x sales versus Nvidia at 30-40x earnings. It is priced to perfection with no margin of safety.
Bitcoin digital gold, institutions keep adopting
Bitcoin is in a class of its own: the macro hedge and digital-gold narrative is intact, it is less than 10% of the gold market cap, and institutional/ETF adoption should lower volatility and bring secular flows. He is comfortable holding and rotating into BTC even if it goes to $1M, which would still be a fraction of gold.
Non-Bitcoin crypto overvalued, expect drawdowns
The roughly $1.5T non-Bitcoin crypto market cannot be justified by current revenue or users. There are only about 40M active users, valuation is hyper-financialized and self-referential, every narrative is already priced in, L1/L2 value capture is getting harder, and he expects 80-90% drawdowns in most tokens.
Short altcoins as dream valuations unwind
Tokens do not file for bankruptcy, so altcoin valuations supported by the dream of future revenue can remain elevated for a while. But now insiders, crypto natives, and bagholders are throwing in the towel, which can take altcoin valuations down a lot, and shorting tokens may finally be the trade.
Hyperliquid buybacks could squeeze illiquid token
Hyperliquid has real economic activity from leveraged trading of stocks and tokens. If the Hyperliquid Foundation uses trading fees to buy back tokens in an illiquid market, the token could squeeze hard upside; he views it as a quality crypto asset that could be sold hard and then recover as real activity accrues.
Quality DeFi revenues outperform in drawdown
In a crypto drawdown, capital should rotate out of vaporware and Cardano-like assets into DeFi protocols with real revenues. Uniswap, Hyperliquid, and Syrup look reasonably priced on revenue, and they could rise while the rest of the market falls.
Stimulus and adoption support Bitcoin bounce
The affordability crisis likely forces stimulus rather than socialism, while blockchain adoption is moving from illegal to legal. That should drive short-term inflows and a long-term adoption cycle. After broad deleveraging, BTC is likely to bounce, and he remains bullish BTC while much less optimistic on crypto ex-BTC.
Western Union cheap, stablecoins cut costs
Western Union trades around 4x P/E while the market trades at 25-30x, has a trusted brand with immigrants and remittance users, and much of its cost structure is local liquidity/FX sourcing that can be cut if recipients use digital wallets and stablecoins. He is excited about the margin of safety and potential technology transformation, though it is too big for Inversion right now.
Applications capture value over infrastructure
Value capture in crypto will accrue to deployers and applications that control the user, not to the infrastructure layer. The last decade saw roughly $100B overinvested in infrastructure and blockspace has become commoditized; he wants businesses that can use open crypto rails to lower costs and monetize users, not L1/L2 infrastructure tokens.
Applications capture value over infrastructure
Value capture in crypto will accrue to deployers and applications that control the user, not to the infrastructure layer. The last decade saw roughly $100B overinvested in infrastructure and blockspace has become commoditized; he wants businesses that can use open crypto rails to lower costs and monetize users, not L1/L2 infrastructure tokens.
Killer apps beat infrastructure investments
The infrastructure investment era is over. Applications and killer apps driving real activity are the only investable crypto area; infrastructure tokens are analogous to Cisco, AT&T, and local broadband in 2000, which did not recover. He prefers apps over infrastructure, though current prices are still scary.
Killer apps beat infrastructure investments
The infrastructure investment era is over. Applications and killer apps driving real activity are the only investable crypto area; infrastructure tokens are analogous to Cisco, AT&T, and local broadband in 2000, which did not recover. He prefers apps over infrastructure, though current prices are still scary.
Stock market bounce, good end year
The broad selloff across gold, Nasdaq, AI, uranium, and other assets looks like general repositioning and deleveraging rather than the end of the stock market bubble. Once that is over, he expects at least a bounce and a good end of the year for stocks.
Ethereum hater; crypto ex-BTC fades
He is much less optimistic on crypto ex-BTC and back to being an ETH hater. Alt/token valuations were supported by the dream of future revenue rather than revenue, insiders and bagholders are capitulating, and in a liquidity downturn these assets can draw down 80-90%.
Buy Bitcoin below 90K for debasement
He likes Bitcoin here and plans to add below $90K, believing forced and OG selling will not materialize. Longer term he believes the Bitcoin-to-$1M thesis because the affordability crisis will force government debasement and stimulus, and he wants to hold BTC through that.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published November 17, 2025, features Santiago R. Santos, Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing AI-SECTOR, NVDA, ETH, BTC, Crypto excluding Bitcoin, ALTCOINS, HYPE, SYRUP, UNI, WU, Crypto applications, Crypto infrastructure / L1-L2 tokens, Crypto applications / killer apps, SPY. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Santiago R. Santos, Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: AI-SECTOR, NVDA, ETH, BTC, Crypto excluding Bitcoin, ALTCOINS, HYPE, SYRUP, UNI, WU, Crypto applications, Crypto infrastructure / L1-L2 tokens, Crypto applications / killer apps, SPY