Market Top Alert: Is 40% Crash Next? Trader Reveals Why He’s Short | Gareth Soloway
Speakers
Gareth Soloway
— President of Verified Investing
David Lin
— Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News
Summary
Gareth Soloway argues the stock market has topped and expects a 10-15% correction, with semiconductors and AI-related stocks especially vulnerable. He is short Nvidia, SanDisk, and broad semis, while expecting near-term downside in Bitcoin and gold before longer-term recoveries. He favors gold over Bitcoin structurally, sees Ethereum as a swing buy near $2,700-$2,800, and warns on altcoins and the US dollar.
- Gareth Soloway says the S&P 500 has already topped and expects at least a 10-15% correction, with risk of larger declines.
- He shorts broad semiconductors/SMH because the ETF is 102% above its 200-week moving average, a setup that preceded 40-45% corrections.
- He is short Nvidia and SanDisk, citing parabolic charts and downside toward moving-average support.
- He expects Bitcoin to fall to $73,000-$75,000 but plans to accumulate for the long term, and sees Ethereum as a swing buy at $2,700-$2,800.
- He expects gold to pull back to $3,500-$3,600 before new highs and $5,000 next year; he prefers gold over Bitcoin structurally.
- He warns long-term altcoin holds are risky and expects the US dollar to continue lower amid de-dollarization.
- He cites AI bubble dynamics, circular financing, data-center pauses, and hyperscaler depreciation as key risks.
Ideas
Stock market topped; expect 10-15% correction.
The stock market has already topped. AI has driven 75% of the S&P's two-year upside, but valuations are pulling forward revenue not due until 2030, circular financing between AI companies resembles a Ponzi, data centers are being paused, and hyperscalers understate chip depreciation. With buy-the-dip conditioning and only a 2-3% expectation, he expects at least a 10-15% correction and sees risk of a 30-40% decline over years, so he is positioned with more shorts.
Semis due for sizable correction.
SMH has gone 102% above its 200-week moving average for the third time; the prior two 102% extensions led to 45% and 40% corrections. He views moving averages as a rubber band and expects a sizable correction in the semiconductor trade. Semis are intertwined with tech and the broader market, and any big semi stock falling could drag the whole market down, so he is short the broad semis/SMH.
Short Nvidia on downside risk.
He has been shorting Nvidia as part of the overextended AI/semiconductor complex. Nvidia earnings could cause a 10-20 point pop first, making it risky, but the chart has large downside toward the 200-week moving average, so he is attacking Nvidia on the short side and favors broad semis as a safer short.
Short SanDisk parabolic chart retrace.
SanDisk has gone parabolic on the weekly chart after a huge move. He calls it a great company but wants to short the retrace back to prior levels and take a 20-30% gain, treating it as a classic parabolic short.
Bitcoin pullback then accumulate long-term.
Bitcoin is at a pivotal support after a clear technical rejection from the 2017/2021 high resistance line. If bears win, he expects downside to $73,000-$75,000, with institutional de-risking and crypto treasury funding constraints adding pressure. However, he bought a small nibble below $94,000 and will add heavily at $73,000-$75,000 to accumulate a longer-term hold, believing Bitcoin remains digital gold and will eventually outperform stocks.
Avoid long-term altcoin holdings.
Altcoins are tough because the market constantly rotates to new hot technologies, making it hard to know which will retain value, and he lacks the knowledge base to pick long-term winners. He remains very careful on long-term altcoin holds and focuses mainly on Bitcoin, allowing only small speculative positions.
Buy ETH at 2800-2700 support.
Ethereum needs to come down a bit more, and he has isolated a swing-trade buy range of $2,800-$2,700, which he expects to be a huge support area. He remains cautious on long-term altcoin holds but views this as a tactical Ethereum long.
Gold dip then 5K next year.
Gold likely has more near-term downside to $3,600-$3,500 to flush out weak hands, following the 1979 analog where gold pulled back to the former consolidation pivot before a big bull move. However, he holds a large long-term gold position, sees the current fiscal/rate backdrop as more bullish than 1979, and expects new all-time highs with $5,000 next year a no-brainer; he would allocate the most to gold among the discussed assets because it is least risky.
Dollar likely continues lower.
US debt and money printing will eventually dilute the currency and reduce foreign demand for US debt. Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar at breakneck speed, the dollar has already fallen significantly over the past year, and he expects it to continue lower; investors should focus on assets that diversify away from US dollars.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published November 17, 2025, features Gareth Soloway discussing SPY, SMH, NVDA, SNDK, BTC, ALTCOINS, ETH, GLD, USD. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Gareth Soloway · Tickers: SPY, SMH, NVDA, SNDK, BTC, ALTCOINS, ETH, GLD, USD