Why Property Values Are Tanking And What’s Next | Ron Butler

Watch on YouTube ↗ | November 17, 2025 at 19:24 | 33:59 | The David Lin Report

Speakers

Ron Butler — Principal, Butler Mortgage

Summary

Ron Butler discusses Canadian real estate, focusing on how a BC Supreme Court ruling granting dual Aboriginal title in Richmond creates title uncertainty and value erosion. He criticizes Canada's housing affordability plans, warns the GTA condo crash is ongoing, and forecasts Canadian variable mortgage rates will fall further. He also covers the US market, including foreclosure normalization, low-rate lock-in, AI unemployment risks, and why he would not short New York real estate.

BC court ruling creates dual title on Richmond private land, raising property-value and mortgage-renewal concerns.
Canada's Build Canada Homes plan is criticized as slow and focused on rentals, not for-sale affordability.
Toronto/GTA condo market remains in a crash with appraisals well below purchase prices.
Ron expects Canadian fixed rates under 4% and further Bank of Canada cuts, favoring variable-rate mortgages.
In expensive Canadian cities, falling rents make renting financially better than buying.
US foreclosures are rising but remain below historical norms, not an emergency.
Low 3% mortgage rates are locking US homeowners in place, supporting housing supply constraints.
He would not short New York real estate despite political migration talk.

Ideas

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 7:13

Dual title clouds Richmond property values.

The BC Supreme Court awarded the Kwikwetlem Nation dual title over private fee-simple lands in Richmond, creating uncertainty over who actually owns the property. This cloud on title makes buyers reluctant and private lenders potentially unwilling to renew mortgages, leading to severe value erosion for properties that were worth $2M. The Richmond decision is the concrete negative catalyst because other claims have not yet produced a court decision.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 19:43

Purpose-built rentals grow outside Ontario, BC.

The CHC Select program has seen a huge uptick, and the budget added $20B while raising the program limit, because the government expects continued purpose-built rental construction. This supply growth will be concentrated in Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the Prairie provinces, not mainly Ontario or BC. This is a developing investment/development theme worth monitoring.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 20:57

GTA condo crash continues, prices falling.

The GTA condo crash continues, with more units completing and creating a pricing problem. A recent file bought at $1,350 per square foot appraised at $950 per square foot, forcing buyers to bring more down payment; resale prices are $950 and falling. This is bad for anyone who bought GTA condos in 2020-2022.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 21:55

Favor Canadian variable-rate mortgages over fixed.

Canadian fixed mortgage rates will likely stay mainly under 4%, but variable-rate mortgages are already lower—the best CHC variable rate is as low as 3.45% versus fixed around 3.64-3.69%. He expects the Bank of Canada to cut at least two more times next year (possibly Feb/Mar/Apr) despite the governor's pause, so prime-based variable rates should fall further, giving variable an advantage.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 25:45

Rent beats buying in expensive Canada.

In expensive Canadian markets like Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver, rents have fallen almost 10% over the last 30 months while purchase prices remain high. From a pure financial point of view, renting is now better than buying, and studies show this can hold over 25-30 years. The true value of home ownership is long-term stability/family, not investment return.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 30:56

Low-rate lock-in supports US home prices.

Many US homeowners have 3% mortgage rates. Even if rates come down, 3% is far better than 5.79%, so these owners are strongly incentivized to stay put unless forced by family, economic, or job reasons. This lock-in effect limits housing supply and supports US home prices.

Ron Butler Principal, Butler Mortgage 33:25

New York real estate remains a hold.

Despite political migration talk after Mamdani's win, such reactions are emotional and unlikely to cause a lasting exodus; New York remains the financial capital of the world, so he would not short New York real estate.

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This The David Lin Report video, published November 17, 2025, features Ron Butler discussing Richmond, BC residential real estate, Atlantic Canada purpose-built rental housing, Quebec purpose-built rental housing, Prairie provinces purpose-built rental housing, GTA condo market, Canadian variable-rate mortgages, Toronto residential real estate, Calgary residential real estate, Vancouver residential real estate, US residential real estate, New York Real Estate. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ron Butler · Tickers: Richmond, BC residential real estate, Atlantic Canada purpose-built rental housing, Quebec purpose-built rental housing, Prairie provinces purpose-built rental housing, GTA condo market, Canadian variable-rate mortgages, Toronto residential real estate, Calgary residential real estate, Vancouver residential real estate, US residential real estate, New York Real Estate