Market's Worst Sell-Off In A Month, Will It Get Worse? Fund Manager Reveals What's Next

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  November 14, 2025 at 04:29  |  32:49  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
David Busch — Co-CIO, Traent Wealth

Summary

David Busch, Co-CIO of Trajan Wealth, joins David Lin to discuss the November 13, 2025 market selloff, why he expects more volatility into year-end, and how Fed policy, private credit, and consumer stress are shaping risks. He favors balancing large-cap growth with large-cap value and dividend payers, using intermediate high-quality bonds and managed futures as diversifiers, and watching private credit for credit-market cracks. He also sees a long-term AI infrastructure buildout benefiting suppliers and energy, while flagging Tesla and Nvidia valuation risk and viewing crypto ETFs as a speculative but usable allocation.

  • Equities sold off as tech valuations and Fed uncertainty weighed on risk assets.
  • Busch expects more volatility into year-end and says a December rate cut is not guaranteed.
  • He sees private credit spread widening as a potential credit canary but not yet systemic.
  • He favors intermediate high-quality bonds, large-cap value and dividend payers, and managed futures to dampen volatility.
  • He remains long-term positive on technology and AI infrastructure, with suppliers, energy, and materials as beneficiaries.
  • He flags Tesla and Nvidia valuations as high, while Apple's cash balance is a relative strength.
  • Crypto is viewed as speculative but suitable through limited-downside ETF exposure.
Ideas
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 3:07
Tech is a long-term positive.
Busch remains a long-term believer that technology is the wave of the future and that the AI infrastructure build will be hugely beneficial to the US economy; large-cap tech companies have cash and positive earnings, but near-term AI capex and high valuations can create volatility, so he would pair growth with value and fixed income.
XLK HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 7:04
Private credit cracks warrant watching.
Private credit spreads are widening, which Busch calls a possible canary in the coal mine. He worries about limited investor optics, cov-lite loans, collateral perfection and rehypothecation risk, and recent credit losses at First Brands, Tricolor, and BlackRock; he does not yet think the risk is systemic but monitors it closely.
BIZD HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 9:06
Intermediate high-quality bonds hedge volatility.
Bond yields are around the highest in 15 years, and Busch uses high-quality bonds for income and to dampen volatility because stock-bond correlation has been near zero. He advises staying up in credit quality, avoiding yield-chasing, and focusing on the intermediate 3-5 year part of the curve; if the Fed cuts quickly in a downturn, bond values should rise and offset equity risk.
Intermediate high-quality bonds (3-5 year) HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 14:10
S&P concentration raises volatility risk.
The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, with the top 10 names roughly 30-35% of the index, so a selloff in big tech can drag the whole index down. Busch says investors need to be tactical and diversified rather than relying only on the concentrated cap-weighted index.
SPY HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 14:55
Value and dividends cushion volatility.
To manage expected volatility and concentration, Busch pairs large-cap growth with large-cap value, specifically dividend payers. Dividends provide steady cash flow to dampen volatility, and value historically outperforms growth in selloffs and when inflation runs hot.
IVE Dividend-paying stocks HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 16:52
Tesla valuation is extraordinarily high.
Tesla's trailing P/E around 320 is extraordinarily high relative to peers and even versus Nvidia. For a value-oriented investor like Busch, that valuation is unattractive and leaves little margin of safety.
TSLA HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 17:25
Apple's cash supports valuation resilience.
Among megacap tech names, Apple stands out because its huge cash balance lets it weather a storm, and its valuation appears relatively reasonable versus the highest-multiple names.
AAPL LOW
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 17:40
Nvidia valuation looks a little high.
Nvidia at roughly 55x earnings looks a little high to Busch, even though other megacap tech valuations seem more in line. He is cautious on the high multiple.
NVDA LOW
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 25:25
AI buildout benefits suppliers and energy.
Busch looks beyond the Mag 7 to the businesses and services required for the AI infrastructure buildout. Construction, manufacturing, equipment rentals, energy production, natural gas producers, uranium miners, and rare earth minerals should benefit as data centers need power and materials, potentially driving a broader manufacturing and economic uplift.
Equipment rentals ITB Manufacturing XLE FCG URA REMX HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 28:14
Managed futures diversify and dampen volatility.
Busch uses managed futures and trend-following strategies in client portfolios because they are uncorrelated, can go long or short across interest-rate, commodity, and equity futures, and can make money in either direction, helping dampen volatility during selloffs.
Managed Futures HIGH
David Busch Co-CIO, Traent Wealth 29:47
Crypto ETFs have a speculative place.
Busch views crypto as speculative but sees a place and purpose for it. Digital currency ETFs make sense because they give exposure for investors who cannot buy a whole bitcoin, and some funds he uses seek upside while limiting downside through derivatives.
Digital currency ETFs MED
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This The David Lin Report video, published November 14, 2025, features David Busch discussing XLK, BIZD, Intermediate high-quality bonds (3-5 year), SPY, IVE, Dividend-paying stocks, TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, Equipment rentals, ITB, Manufacturing, XLE, FCG, URA, REMX, Managed Futures, Digital currency ETFs. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Busch  · Tickers: XLK, BIZD, Intermediate high-quality bonds (3-5 year), SPY, IVE, Dividend-paying stocks, TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, Equipment rentals, ITB, Manufacturing, XLE, FCG, URA, REMX, Managed Futures, Digital currency ETFs