AI Nerves, Crypto Realism, Privacy Coins, & Lessons From Trading

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  November 11, 2025 at 09:01  |  1:03:59  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management

Summary

The hosts discuss Bitcoin holding 100K, the market impact of a potential end to the government shutdown, tariff refunds or a tariff dividend, and nervousness around the AI trade and Sam Altman/OpenAI. They debate crypto's K-shaped recovery, the death of broad altcoin seasons, and the need to pick quality applications like Aerodrome, Hyperliquid, and Syrup. Privacy coins, especially Zcash and Monero, are a major theme, alongside tactical shorting and lessons from trading losses.

  • Bitcoin defended 100K and sentiment remains cautious after a sharp selloff.
  • Tariff refunds or a tariff dividend could act as a fiscal stimulus wildcard.
  • The AI trade is a dominant market driver but faces unease over Sam Altman/OpenAI promises.
  • Crypto is seen moving toward a K-shaped recovery with winners and many losers.
  • Aerodrome, Hyperliquid, Syrup, and privacy coins are highlighted as favored themes.
  • Shorting crypto is described as tactical and flow-dependent, with Worldcoin as an example.
  • Trading lessons emphasize forgetting losses, changing your mind, and surviving volatility.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 4:50
AI trade fragile on Altman risk.
The AI trade is becoming uncomfortable because the entire market is levered to AI and Sam Altman/OpenAI, whose revenue is only $10-20B while spending promises are in the trillions. The vibe resembles SBF/FTX with unfulfilled promises and a single main character, making the setup fragile even though he is not short.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 13:03
Bitcoin risk-reward still favorable.
Bitcoin's heavy OG selling looks like an IPO moment where early insiders transfer wealth to new entrants, which does not preclude further upside. At 100K the risk has fallen more than the reward, he does not expect a 30% drawdown without a quantum/51% event, and he would allocate 80-90% of liquid net worth if BTC traded to 70K on idiosyncratic selling.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 14:44
Most altcoins will go to zero.
Most crypto tokens will not survive the shift to stock-market-like dispersion; only a few winners will go up while most tokens go straight to hell, so blanket altcoin exposure is dangerous and shorting is too tactically difficult to be a clean short.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 16:53
Maple growth supports long.
Maple Finance's outstanding loans are hitting all-time highs and the protocol keeps attracting capital and growing. If that growth continues over the next 6-8 months, the market should eventually appreciate it, and he is willing to stomach volatility and buy more on a 50% drawdown.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 18:29
Short Worldcoin on weekly dumps.
Worldcoin has persistent token emissions/dumps of roughly $40 million per week, creating a flow-driven short opportunity. He would short it tactically and buy Bitcoin against it to reduce broad crypto market risk.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 21:43
Long Aerodrome, avoid ENA.
Aerodrome is a better long-term DeFi play than ENA because it benefits from institutional uptake and more assets traded onchain, while ENA requires large institutions to park capital on a public protocol with insufficient yields. Aerodrome is still cheap at a 1-2B valuation versus ENA's much higher valuation; he is long AERO and has no ENA position, though he did not short ENA because it requires too much attention.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 21:43
Long Aerodrome, avoid ENA.
Aerodrome is a better long-term DeFi play than ENA because it benefits from institutional uptake and more assets traded onchain, while ENA requires large institutions to park capital on a public protocol with insufficient yields. Aerodrome is still cheap at a 1-2B valuation versus ENA's much higher valuation; he is long AERO and has no ENA position, though he did not short ENA because it requires too much attention.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 24:34
HYPE buyback supports holding dips.
Hyperliquid has tokenomics where fees are used to buy and burn HYPE, creating an exogenous foundation buyer rather than relying only on VC and retail flows. This gives him confidence to hold through volatility and buy dips as long as the product does not die; he is long HYPE from lower prices.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 27:10
Quality crypto apps win K-shaped recovery.
Crypto is entering a K-shaped recovery with less correlation, where high-quality applications with real usage and tokenomics can rise even if Bitcoin draws down to 80K; he views current prices as an opportunity to buy and hold the good assets.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 27:38
Buy Syrup for low correlation.
Syrup barely trades with the broader crypto market except during liquidation wicks, making it a high-quality DeFi asset to buy and hold as the market bifurcates into winners and losers.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 29:02
L2 tokens are uninvestable.
L2 tokens are uninvestable because block space is abundant and commoditized; there is no shortage of blockspace, and another L2 like MegaETH will not matter in two years. The world needs applications, not more L2s.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 38:29
Buy violent dips in majors.
Market structure has shifted to larger, slower, more methodical participants, so sharp 2-3 sigma sell-offs in majors are buying opportunities. He specifically says for Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana, you can buy even a violent dip and expect higher prices over time.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 40:57
Zcash good, but don't chase.
Zcash has a superior privacy architecture with fully shielded transactions and has captured mindshare, so he thinks it is here to stay and was undervalued. However, after the sharp rally he missed the move and thinks buying at current highs is unattractive; patience or earlier-stage privacy investing is better.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 46:35
Buy more Monero for privacy.
The privacy narrative is investable, and Monero is the coin actually used in privacy circles. He explicitly says to buy more Monero and notes Kraken is the only non-sketchy venue he knows to buy it.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 52:28
Ether Rocks better than CryptoPunks.
Ether Rocks are a better investment than CryptoPunks because they are the first NFT and have scarcity; he loves his rock, will not sell it, and thinks people underestimate its value.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 53:46
CryptoPunks likely leak lower.
CryptoPunks are likely to leak lower because there are too many, there is always someone selling, and the 2021 PFP meta is a fad that likely will not return. He sold his punk to free liquidity for better investments.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published November 11, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing AI-SECTOR, BTC, ALTCOINS, MPL, WLD, AERO, ENA, HYPE, Quality crypto applications, SYRUP, Ethereum L2 tokens, SOL, ETH, ZEC, XMR, ETHERROCK, CRYPTOPUNKS. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: AI-SECTOR, BTC, ALTCOINS, MPL, WLD, AERO, ENA, HYPE, Quality crypto applications, SYRUP, Ethereum L2 tokens, SOL, ETH, ZEC, XMR, ETHERROCK, CRYPTOPUNKS