Ideas
Early-cycle reacceleration favors manufacturing and cyclicals.
The 2025 labor market was revised much weaker than initially reported, suggesting a spring recession, but recent data including January payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI above 50, and positive manufacturing payrolls point to an early-cycle reacceleration. Historical backtests show the best 12-month returns after these manufacturing triggers, so he favors cyclicals and manufacturing exposure.
Passive and QQQ are vulnerable.
Over-diversification and passive strategies are only working now because the index is flat amid exploding dispersion; eventually this will pay the piper. QQQ is flat or down while currency debasement causes real losses, and regime change makes passive and programmatic strategies vulnerable.
Short AI spenders, long AI bottlenecks.
AI capex spending is not going away tomorrow, but hyperscaler AI spenders are not good stock investments because they will keep issuing debt and equity, and their cost of capital may rise. The correct expression is to sell what they are selling, their securities, and buy what they are buying, the bottlenecks with fixed supply constraints.
Short AI spenders, long AI bottlenecks.
AI capex spending is not going away tomorrow, but hyperscaler AI spenders are not good stock investments because they will keep issuing debt and equity, and their cost of capital may rise. The correct expression is to sell what they are selling, their securities, and buy what they are buying, the bottlenecks with fixed supply constraints.
AI threat compresses software multiples.
Even if AI is not an immediate existential threat to software, a 30x multiple industry that has never been threatened can see multiple compression on just the threat. This supports avoiding software on a secular view.
Avoid retail favorite speculative stocks.
Retail favorite stocks got wiped out; many are fake companies without revenues that benefited from a gamma squeeze in frontier speculative themes. With Fed policy changing, investors should rotate away from these crowded retail favorites.
Rotate to old tech, transports, staples.
The rotation favors old school tech, Dow transports, and consumer staples over high-implied-vol retail favorites. These sectors are acting better and the Fed policy shift supports the rotation, though staples are stretched short term.
Software/staples flow extreme will mean-revert.
Software pessimism and consumer staples optimism hit a fever pitch, with a year's worth of flow leaving software for staples in a very short period. He expects this extreme to mean-revert over the next week or so.
Software/staples flow extreme will mean-revert.
Software pessimism and consumer staples optimism hit a fever pitch, with a year's worth of flow leaving software for staples in a very short period. He expects this extreme to mean-revert over the next week or so.
Own gold as anti-fiat secular inflation hedge.
In a secular inflation regime where governments can print fiat, assets that cannot be printed, like gold and resources, are attractive. Gold has detached from the 10-year yield, and every 36 hours brings another reason to own gold.
Long real assets, short digital.
Long real assets and commodities and short digital and software is a multi-year trade with room to go, supported by geopolitical chaos, inflation, and sovereign resource hoarding.
Long Japan and non-US over US.
He is relatively bullish on Japan and anything non-US because US market-cap concentration is toppy and capital should flow abroad. However, local markets are overbought and a liquidity air pocket through mid-March could hurt even longs.
Long Japan and non-US over US.
He is relatively bullish on Japan and anything non-US because US market-cap concentration is toppy and capital should flow abroad. However, local markets are overbought and a liquidity air pocket through mid-March could hurt even longs.
Long AI bottlenecks, short AI disruption.
The Citi AI bottleneck basket is trending straight up while the basket of companies at risk of AI disruption trends down. This dispersion reflects a secular shift where AI needs physical inputs that cannot be prompted into existence, so the trend likely persists despite short-term overbought conditions.
Long AI bottlenecks, short AI disruption.
The Citi AI bottleneck basket is trending straight up while the basket of companies at risk of AI disruption trends down. This dispersion reflects a secular shift where AI needs physical inputs that cannot be prompted into existence, so the trend likely persists despite short-term overbought conditions.
Metals and commodities are next bottleneck bull.
Memory companies are booming because AI needs memory, and their key inputs such as silicon wafers, rare metals and compounds, copper, aluminum, and chemicals are in fixed supply. The metals trade is not close to done, with geopolitical chaos, inflation, and sovereign resource hoarding as tailwinds.
Uranium and power are next AI bull.
Uranium and power sources are key AI bottlenecks and the next bull market. If the AI trade corrects, they may pull back, but longer-term AI adoption supports them.
Avoid long duration bonds and TLT.
Early-cycle reacceleration and fiscal expansion make long-duration bonds the worst asset to own. The dollar is being debased, inflation is naturally higher, and Fed policy is reversing, so overstaying the safe-haven trade in TLT is dangerous.
Bitcoin is dead money for six months.
Bitcoin has quantum risk and horrific liquidity; the Fed is reversing policies that supported markets since 2022, and capital is rotating to real assets. The macro and micro are poor, making Bitcoin a dead asset for the next six months, though he is not actively shorting.
Watch Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI power.
Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI infrastructure and power because the economics are better than mining. This is a battle between centralization and decentralization; if Bitcoin does not rally, miners will increasingly sell power to AI companies.
Avoid digital asset treasury companies.
Digital asset treasury companies have debt refinancing risk, as illustrated by Saylor's inability to answer where he would refinance if Bitcoin fell 90%. The sector needs to absolve its sins and will take a while to recover.
This Forward Guidance video, published February 13, 2026,
features Felix Jauvin, Quinn Thompson
discussing XLI, QQQ, Passive index funds, AI hyperscaler equities, AI bottleneck basket, IGV, Citi Retail Favorite Basket, Frontier speculative stocks, Old School Tech, IYT, XLP, GLD, GDX, Real Assets/Commodities, EWJ, non-US equities, SPY, AI disruption basket, Metals/Commodities, COPPER, Aluminum, REMX, URA, Power Sources, TLT, BTC, WGMI, Digital asset treasury companies (DATs).
21 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Felix Jauvin,
Quinn Thompson
· Tickers:
XLI,
QQQ,
Passive index funds,
AI hyperscaler equities,
AI bottleneck basket,
IGV,
Citi Retail Favorite Basket,
Frontier speculative stocks,
Old School Tech,
IYT,
XLP,
GLD,
GDX,
Real Assets/Commodities,
EWJ,
non-US equities,
SPY,
AI disruption basket,
Metals/Commodities,
COPPER,
Aluminum,
REMX,
URA,
Power Sources,
TLT,
BTC,
WGMI,
Digital asset treasury companies (DATs)
