Chinese Stocks Can't Wait for Holiday Break, Except Zhipu | The China Show 2/13/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Asian markets are decoupling from the US "scare trade" primarily due to strength in the memory chip sector (Samsung, SK Hynix) and a "wall of liquidity" moving into Emerging Markets.
- J.P. Morgan has set a bullish target for the KOSPI (Korea) at 6,000 (base) to 7,500 (bull), driven by memory shortages and corporate governance reforms.
- BofA Global Research nearly doubled its Taiwan GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 8% for 2026, citing a CapEx supercycle and AI demand.
- A bifurcation is emerging in Chinese Tech: Legacy giants (Tencent, Baidu) are losing favor due to a lack of AI progress and margin-eroding subsidy wars, while new AI players (Zhipu, MiniMax) and hardware suppliers surge.
- The Chinese property market shows signs of stabilization in secondary sales, with a potential rescue package for Vanke acting as a catalyst for quality developers.
Trade Ideas
J.P. Morgan set a base case target of 6,000 and a bull case of 7,500 for the KOSPI. Samsung and SK Hynix are warning of supply shortages in memory chips. The memory sector is lifting the entire Asian benchmark, insulating it from the US "scare trade." The bull case assumes capital repatriation and a broadening rally beyond just two stocks (Samsung/SK Hynix) into defense and shipbuilding. LONG. The sector is benefiting from a supply/demand imbalance and rising prices across all memory categories (DRAM/NAND). Global equities entering a prolonged downturn would drag Korea down regardless of sector strength.
J.P. Morgan has a price target of 6,300 on Gold (likely non-USD denomination or index value given context, but direction is explicit). Supply is constrained while demand from central bankers and individuals is "so strong that physical supply and deliveries is just very, very constrained." LONG. Structural supply/demand imbalance supports higher prices despite short-term volatility from systematic selling. Crowded positioning and volatility selling from systematic investors.
BofA raised Taiwan's 2026 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 8%. Taiwan is riding a "once in a generation" CapEx supercycle. TSMC's monthly sales track closely with this CapEx boom. The US-Taiwan trade deal removes policy overhang for the tech sector. LONG. The economy is "supercharged" by external demand for AI and hardware. A "K-shaped" economy where non-tech sectors falter could force the central bank into a difficult policy dilemma; currency swings.
Tencent is down 22% off highs and its 14-day RSI is at 26 (oversold). Investors perceive Tencent as "missing" from the AI conversation compared to peers like Zhipu or Alibaba. Tencent is engaging in subsidy wars (red packets) to gain users, which investors fear will compress margins without the upside of a clear AI strategy. AVOID. Capital is rotating out of legacy consumer internet stocks into hardware and new AI pure-plays. The stock is technically oversold (RSI 26), which could trigger a mean-reversion bounce.
Zoe Wang
Global Infrastructure Ratings Director, Fitch Ratings
The Lunar New Year holiday is 9 days long (longest ever). There is a shift toward "experience-led travel." While luxury goods consumption is down, spending on services and travel is up. Flight capacity is shifting from Japan (due to geopolitics) to domestic and Southeast Asian routes. Trip.com (referenced as "Trip") is up 17%. LONG. Volume-driven growth in the travel sector despite broader economic headwinds. Geopolitical tensions affecting specific routes (e.g., Japan).
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 13, 2026, features Mixo Das, Sharon Ping, Lanting Tu, Zoe Wang discussing SSNLF, EWY, SOXX, GOLD, EWT, TSM, TCEHY, BIDU, TCOM, JETS. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mixo Das, Sharon Ping, Lanting Tu, Zoe Wang · Tickers: SSNLF, EWY, SOXX, GOLD, EWT, TSM, TCEHY, BIDU, TCOM, JETS