AI Angst Rocks Asia Markets | The Asia Trade 2/13/2026
Speakers
Chris Wright — U.S. Energy Secretary
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- AI Narrative Shift: The market sentiment has shifted from "AI Boom" to "AI Angst." Investors are now aggressively selling sectors perceived to be disrupted by AI (Logistics, Commercial Real Estate) rather than just buying AI beneficiaries.
- Venezuela Oil Expansion: The U.S. Energy Secretary explicitly confirmed that Chevron (CVX) is set to "massively grow" production in Venezuela over the next 18-24 months, signaling a geopolitical shift to secure oil supply.
- SoftBank's Concentration Risk: Analysts warn of "circular financing" risks regarding SoftBank's heavy reliance on OpenAI valuations to boost its own stock and Arm's (ARM) performance.
- Japan's Wealth Unlock: A major push is underway by global private equity firms (Blackstone, KKR) to tap into Japan's $7 trillion household cash pile, aided by a pro-growth Prime Minister (Takaichi).
Trade Ideas
Prime Minister Takaichi has a "mandate for growth" following a landslide election win and is pursuing fiscal expansion and industrialization. Political stability combined with explicit pro-growth fiscal policy removes the uncertainty that plagued Japanese markets previously. The "Takaichi tailwind" supports equities despite potential currency volatility. LONG. Fiscal stimulus and corporate governance reforms continue to drive the Japanese equity narrative. Rising JGB yields could pressure equity valuations if fiscal spending gets out of control.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated, "Chevron is being enabled to massively grow their business here [Venezuela]... we will see a pretty big put in rising Chevron production over the next 18 to 24 months." This is a direct government endorsement and regulatory green-light for Chevron to monetize Venezuela's vast reserves, which have been offline or underutilized due to sanctions. This adds a significant growth wedge to Chevron's upstream production. LONG. Explicit regulatory tailwind and volume growth guidance from a government official. Volatile Venezuelan politics or a reversal in U.S. foreign policy.
SoftBank's valuation uplift is almost entirely driven by its investment in OpenAI. Goyal notes, "Risk is essentially centered around OpenAI... circular financing concerns... buying Nvidia and others increasing Arm's [value]." The analyst highlights a "circular" risk where SoftBank invests in OpenAI, which buys chips, which boosts Nvidia, which boosts Arm (owned by SoftBank). If OpenAI's valuation falters or competition (Google/Meta) erodes its lead, the entire valuation loop for SoftBank collapses. AVOID. The stock is a leveraged bet on a single private asset (OpenAI) with opaque valuation metrics. OpenAI successfully dominates AGI, driving SoftBank stock significantly higher.
Samsung has sent its first shipment of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) to customers. Kioxia forecasts better-than-expected operating income due to strong data storage demand. The "AI Angst" trade does not apply to the hardware enablers. Data centers require massive memory upgrades. Samsung catching up to SK Hynix creates a broader supply base for Nvidia, validating the "supercycle" in memory chips. Additionally, the Korean government is incentivizing "Ants" (retail investors) to repatriate cash into domestic stocks. LONG. Strong secular demand for memory (HBM) combined with domestic liquidity flows in Korea. Oversupply if Samsung ramps production too quickly.
The "AI Scare Trade" has spread beyond tech into Logistics and Commercial Real Estate. The speaker notes that logistics firms rely on pricing inefficiencies and human error for margins. AI eliminates these inefficiencies. If logistics clients use AI to optimize truckloads and routes, they will no longer pay for the "inefficiencies" that previously padded the margins of logistics giants. Similarly, AI reduces the need for office labor, crushing demand for commercial space. SHORT. The market is repricing these sectors as "AI Losers" due to permanent deflationary pressure on their pricing power. The selloff may be an overreaction/panic selling before actual earnings erosion occurs.
Japan holds a $7 trillion cash pile. Blackstone and KKR are launching massive media blitzes and educating local brokerages to sell private market products to Japanese retail investors. With inflation finally hitting Japan, cash is no longer safe. The shift from savings to investments is a massive AUM growth opportunity for alternative asset managers who can capture even a fraction of that $7 trillion. LONG. A structural flow of funds story benefiting the largest asset gatherers. Japanese retail investors are notoriously risk-averse and may prefer domestic equities (Nikkei) over foreign private credit/equity.
Julia Wong
North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management
Chinese tech valuations are low. The country is focusing on "Industrial Robotics" and a "whole economy approach" to AI rather than just consumer chatbots. While the U.S. worries about AI monetization in software, China is integrating AI into manufacturing (hard assets). This creates a productivity lift that is currently unpriced in the beaten-down valuations of Chinese tech giants. LONG. A contrarian value play on AI implementation in the industrial sector. Geopolitical sanctions (e.g., U.S. action against DeepSeek) or trade war escalation under the Trump administration.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 13, 2026, features Julia Wong, Chris Wright, Atul Goyal, Peter Elstrom, Sheldon McLeod, Lisa Du discussing NIKKEI, CVX, SFTBY, SSNLF, MU, EWY, SOXX, FDX, XLRE, UPS, CHRW, KKR, BX, KWEB. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Julia Wong, Chris Wright, Atul Goyal, Peter Elstrom, Sheldon McLeod, Lisa Du · Tickers: NIKKEI, CVX, SFTBY, SSNLF, MU, EWY, SOXX, FDX, XLRE, UPS, CHRW, KKR, BX, KWEB