Nvidia Fails to Wow & Cuba Shootout With US Boat | Daybreak Europe 02/26/2026
Speakers
Chris Beauchamp — Chief Market Analyst, IG Group
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- Nvidia Fatigue: Despite beating earnings and guidance ($78B sales vs expectations), NVDA stock reaction was lukewarm. Analysts cite high expectations, concerns over "supply commitments" (hinting at memory shortages), and lack of clarity on the China license for H200 chips.
- Rotation to Asia: A clear rotation is emerging from US Big Tech into Asian hardware. Strategists argue the "AI trade" is moving to Samsung and SK Hynix, offering a "double whammy" of equity upside and currency appreciation (Won/Yen) against a weakening Dollar.
- Japan Policy Shift: The BOJ Governor hinted at rate hikes, strengthening the JPY and boosting Japanese banks, causing the Topix (finance-heavy) to outperform the Nikkei (tech-heavy).
- European Corporate Strength: Major European firms (AXA, Schneider, Airbus) are delivering beats, buybacks, and securing large orders (China), contrasting with the lukewarm reaction to US tech.
- Geopolitical Risk: Tensions are escalating with Cuba (shootout) and Iran (nuclear talks/military threats), keeping a bid under oil and defense assets.
Trade Ideas
NVDA delivered a "blockbuster" quarter ($2B data center beat), but the stock was flat. Campling notes a massive jump in "supply commitment" (from $450M to $90B) suggesting a scramble to secure memory supply. The market is suffering from "AI Derangement Syndrome" (fatigue). While fundamentals are intact, the massive capital outlay required to secure supply (memory) and the lack of finalized OpenAI contracts create short-term hesitation. WATCH. The easy money has been made; future gains depend on the successful deployment of Blackwell/Rubin chips. Supply chain bottlenecks (HBM memory); China export restrictions.
Cranfield notes that investors are "looking to put money into Samsung, SK Hynix" because these stocks are roaring while local currencies (Won) appreciate. He calls this a "double whammy" return (equity + FX). As NVDA faces high expectations and valuation fatigue, capital is rotating into the upstream memory providers in Asia who are essential for AI but trade at lower valuations. LONG Asian Memory/Chip manufacturers as the "catch-up" AI trade. Global recession dampening chip demand; US trade restrictions on Asian tech.
The BOJ Governor stated they will look at the impact of the December hike to determine the next one, which the market interprets as "reinforcing bets on further tightening." Higher rates benefit Japanese banks (net interest margins). Consequently, the Topix (heavy on financials) is outperforming the Nikkei (heavy on tech/exporters who dislike strong Yen). LONG JPY and Japanese Financials. BOJ reverses course or delays hikes; global deflation.
AXA reported record results and announced a €1.25B buyback. The CEO explicitly stated their private credit exposure is "far below competitors." The buyback provides a floor for the stock. Low exposure to private credit removes a key overhang that is plaguing other insurers/financials in the current macro environment. LONG AXA as a defensive financial play with capital return catalysts. Climate/Catastrophe claims exceeding models (though CEO claims balance sheet is insulated).
Schneider Electric reported a revenue beat (11.1B Euro vs 10.89B est) and 10.7% organic growth. This confirms the "electrification/data center infrastructure" thesis is still robust, independent of the volatility in pure-play AI chip stocks. LONG Schneider as a "picks and shovels" play on data center buildouts. CapEx slowdown by hyperscalers.
US is ramping up pressure on Iran (sanctions, military threats) ahead of Geneva talks. Separately, a shootout occurred between Cuban forces and a US boat. Multiple geopolitical flashpoints (Middle East + Caribbean) increase the risk premium for energy markets. LONG Oil and Energy stocks as a geopolitical hedge. Diplomatic breakthroughs de-escalating tensions.
Oliver Crook
Chief European Correspondent, Bloomberg
German Chancellor Scholz is in China, and Airbus is "set to secure a major order" for 120 planes. This confirms strong demand from China despite geopolitical tensions, solidifying Airbus's order book relative to Boeing. LONG Airbus on confirmed order flow. Geopolitical deterioration between EU and China; production delays.
Vonnie Quinn
Anchor, Bloomberg
Salesforce gave a "lukewarm growth outlook" that failed to impress investors. The forecast fuels worries that the software giant is "losing out to new competitors in the AI space." AVOID legacy SaaS companies that are vulnerable to AI disruption until they prove their AI agents can monetize. Unexpected beat in future quarters; successful pivot to Agentforce.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 26, 2026, features Neil Campling, Mark Cranfield, Winnie Hsu, Thomas Buberl, Vonnie Quinn, Oliver Crook discussing NVDA, SSNLF, KOSPI, TOPIX, JPY, AXA, SCHNEIDER, XLE, EADSY, CRM. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Neil Campling, Mark Cranfield, Winnie Hsu, Thomas Buberl, Vonnie Quinn, Oliver Crook · Tickers: NVDA, SSNLF, KOSPI, TOPIX, JPY, AXA, SCHNEIDER, XLE, EADSY, CRM