Ideas
Short weak alts versus Bitcoin
Many crappy altcoins are backed by teams loaded with bags waiting to dump, and unlike 2021 there is no illusion that a new wave of retail buying will bail them out. Participants who were traumatized will sell rallies into U-shaped recoveries. He screens the top 100 assets by negative Sortino/Sharpe for steady selling and expects those to be good shorts versus Bitcoin after they appreciate, rather than versus USD. He is not touching them immediately and says he might even buy trash first, but sees entry points over the next few months.
Rotate BTC into HYPE, Syrup
Bitcoin has been outperforming some of the better altcoins, and these things cycle: during BTC runs, everything else pauses. If Bitcoin hits $130 while HYPE is still at $47, or while Syrup remains down/paused since BTC started running, that offers an opportunity to sell a little Bitcoin and rotate into HYPE and Syrup. He still thinks this is primarily a Bitcoin rally.
Bitcoin follows lagged M2 higher
Bitcoin is following lagged M2 money supply tick-for-tick because money is too easy and governments are debasing fiat; Bitcoin is the greatest debasement hedge since gold. He argues profit-taking around $110k is exhausted, short liquidations have cleared, and there is an air pocket upward with little resistance. He sees no reason to take profit yet, treats $150k as a call level to reassess, and uses the MVRV Z-score as his exit metric: if it gets above 4-5 he would consider de-risking, otherwise he stays long. He also notes probability-weighted scenarios where BTC flips gold keep expected value above $150k.
Dead biotech shells become crypto vehicles
Many crypto treasury vehicles are coming out of dead biotech shell companies. Failed single-drug biotechs often dissolve into shells with value, and their best exit may now be selling to crypto treasury promoters. Sonnet BioTherapeutics tripled after announcing a merger to buy Hyperliquid. He is looking to bet that these dead biotech shells sell out one by one.
Treasury company buying is froth
All these Bitcoin treasury companies are buying at the same time, which is pumping BTC, and they will all sell at the same time too. The commodities saying 'escalator up, elevator down' applies; when they rush for the exits, there will be a red candle for the ages. It is a sign of froth, though not cause for concern just yet. He wants to monitor for cracks in credit or a crypto selloff, and thinks broader macro contagion is more likely to catalyze the treasury-company unwind than the reverse.
Long cheap treasury cos, short rich
German Bitcoin treasury companies are trading at a discount to NAV while US ones trade at incredible premiums. As more treasury companies are created, the discount/premium on all of them should compress because investors have more options. He suggests a delta-neutral pair trade: buy the cheaper treasury companies and short the richer ones, expecting inefficiencies to converge.
Long cheap treasury cos, short rich
German Bitcoin treasury companies are trading at a discount to NAV while US ones trade at incredible premiums. As more treasury companies are created, the discount/premium on all of them should compress because investors have more options. He suggests a delta-neutral pair trade: buy the cheaper treasury companies and short the richer ones, expecting inefficiencies to converge.
Bitcoin extends, then de-risk at targets
Bitcoin may extend into the 137-158 zone based on extended Bollinger bands, and he plans to take some off for the long run there. His longstanding target is 10-25% of gold's market cap, though he says he may need to update that to 30-50%; at roughly 10% of gold now, Bitcoin is at the bottom of that range, so he remains long but prepares to de-risk into strength. He also notes extreme Bitcoin volatility could delay the process of Bitcoin cannibalizing gold by years.
Rotate Bitcoin into gold to de-risk
When Bitcoin looks too good or reaches the middle of the gold market-cap range (e.g., around 17% of gold), he would rotate some Bitcoin into gold rather than dollars to de-risk while keeping a debasement hedge. Gold is a moving target, up from about $10T to $22T market cap, so if the concern is dollar debasement, gold is a better place to rotate than USD.
Dollar going straight down
The dollar is going straight down for the foreseeable future, so he does not want any dollars in his portfolio. He prefers stocks, real estate, Bitcoin, and gold—anything that holds value against the dollar. He also says he would rather sell Bitcoin to buy gold than sell Bitcoin to buy USD.
No broad-based alt season
There will not be a broad-based alt season because there were too many coins a year ago and there are even more now; money cannot lift everything. Any alt rally has to be targeted and selective, with names like Hyperliquid and Syrup rather than a beta basket.
This 1000x Podcast video, published July 14, 2025,
features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman
discussing Weak altcoins vs Bitcoin, SYRUP, HYPE, BTC, Dead biotech shell companies, Bitcoin treasury companies, German Bitcoin treasury companies, US Bitcoin treasury companies, GLD, USD, Broad altcoins.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Jonah Van Bourg,
Avi Felman
· Tickers:
Weak altcoins vs Bitcoin,
SYRUP,
HYPE,
BTC,
Dead biotech shell companies,
Bitcoin treasury companies,
German Bitcoin treasury companies,
US Bitcoin treasury companies,
GLD,
USD,
Broad altcoins
