Ideas
Copper uptrend remains intact; supply deficit.
Copper remains in a solid uptrend after its record tariff-driven rally. It exceeded his 2025 target of $5.00-$5.25. The tariff news highlighted copper's critical-mineral status and a dramatic supply-versus-demand deficit; even if Trump moderates the tariff, he does not expect copper to fall much below $5. Higher copper costs will be inflationary for builders and users, and the rally is opening generalist investors' eyes to metals and mining.
Physical gold will continue higher.
He remains bullish on physical gold and believes it will go higher. He first got bullish on gold partly due to BRICS/de-dollarization, and he sold general equities in 2021 to own physical gold because he expected it to outperform stocks and bonds, which it did by a factor of four. The dollar decline and commodity super cycle support gold.
Commodity run far from over.
The commodity super cycle is far from over. Despite strong moves in gold, silver, platinum, and other commodities, North American investors remain largely disinterested, which is a contrarian sign. The continuing decline in the US dollar is a major missing ingredient that will be bullish for commodities.
US dollar will eventually go lower.
The US dollar is in a long-term decline. It just had its worst first half ever and is due for a bounce, but eventually he expects it to go even lower. The beginning of the end of the US dollar is underway, which is bullish for commodities and is why he invested outside the United States in general equities.
Avoid US equities, favor non-US markets.
He wishes to own no US general equities and began the year invested outside the United States for general equity exposure. The decline of the US dollar and the potential for foreign capital to be pulled from US markets make non-US equity markets more attractive. He has felt more comfortable outside the US for almost two and a half decades.
Avoid US equities, favor non-US markets.
He wishes to own no US general equities and began the year invested outside the United States for general equity exposure. The decline of the US dollar and the potential for foreign capital to be pulled from US markets make non-US equity markets more attractive. He has felt more comfortable outside the US for almost two and a half decades.
Tech may lead final melt-up.
If Trump succeeds in forcing a Fed governor change and interest rates are cut regardless of need, that could be the last kick to the stock market and cause a melt-up. Technology and AI-related stocks would be the likely focus of such a melt-up, but he views it as a late-cycle last hurrah, not a sustainable bull market, and he personally prefers metals and mining shares.
Junior resource stocks offer higher leverage.
He focuses on the riskier junior resource stocks for higher leverage to the commodity bull market. He acknowledges substantial risk and potential loss of principal, but he believes the junior resource sector offers better leverage opportunities than physical metals and is benefiting from renewed M&A, financings, and interest in mining.
Mining shares outperform physical metals.
Mining shares should outperform physical metals because free cash flow leverage gives larger percentage gains to the companies that mine the metals. The metals and mining industry is in its best shape in over five years, with renewed interest, financings, and M&A. He prefers mining shares over high-flying technology stocks and thinks indexes like GDX and GDXJ will do as well or better than the stock market through 2026.
Silver to outperform gold near term.
He has changed his view on silver; about three months ago he concluded silver is now in the same ballpark as gold and is preparing to outperform gold over the next several months. A modest doubling of metals portfolio allocation from 0.5% to 1% would move markets, especially silver, because the silver market is only about one-fifth the size of the gold market.
This The David Lin Report video, published July 11, 2025,
features Peter Grandich
discussing COPPER, GLD, DBC, USD, non-US equities, US general equities, XLK, Junior resource stocks, GDX, GDXJ, SILVER.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Peter Grandich
· Tickers:
COPPER,
GLD,
DBC,
USD,
non-US equities,
US general equities,
XLK,
Junior resource stocks,
GDX,
GDXJ,
SILVER
