Investor's Picks Up 50% In 3 Months, Called TSLA Crash, Here Are His Next Buys | Emmanuel Lemelson

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  July 10, 2025 at 21:39  |  46:14  |  The David Lin Report
Speakers
Emmanuel Lemelson — CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest
David Lin — Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News

Summary

David Lin interviews Fr. Emmanuel Lemelson, CIO of Lemelson Capital Management, about market fraud, Tesla, his value-investing process, and updated stock picks. Lemelson remains bearish on Tesla, says markets are entering a golden age of fraud, and argues shorting is dangerous. He favors Centene after a Medicaid-driven selloff and Flower Foods as a defensive, cheap staple, while revisiting prior picks including Nike, Kohl's, and Big Five. The discussion emphasizes financial-statement analysis, intrinsic value, margin of safety, independent thinking, and caution toward narrative-driven stocks.

  • Lemelson warns of rising fraud and a market cycle that will eventually stop.
  • He remains negative on Tesla and critical of Elon Musk.
  • Centene is his high-conviction new value pick after a sharp Medicaid-related selloff.
  • Flower Foods is presented as a cheaper defensive staple-food pick.
  • He revisits prior picks: Big Five was acquired, while Nike and Kohl's had strong quarterly returns.
  • He outlines a value process based on financial statements, free cash flow, and margin of safety.
  • He says short selling is structurally difficult and often a terrible business.
  • The interview also covers politics, consumer weakness, inflation, and dollar devaluation.
Ideas
Emmanuel Lemelson CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest 10:33
Tesla fundamentals fail to justify premium.
Tesla is not a buying opportunity. Lemelson views it as a politicized/meme stock driven by narrative, promotion and government subsidy rather than fundamentals. He says sales are falling in Europe and North America, Chinese EV competition is formidable, 51% of Tesla vehicles are made in China, subsidies are going away, and the stock still trades at a super-premium valuation. He has repeatedly been negative on Tesla and criticizes Musk’s promotion and political entanglements.
Emmanuel Lemelson CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest 17:09
Buy Centene after Medicaid selloff overreaction.
Centene sold off about 40% after the proposed Medicaid/Medicare reimbursement changes in the big, beautiful bill, which could remove about $20B of revenue and $2.75 per share of EPS. Lemelson says the hit is calculable: on revised numbers CNC trades around 4.5x earnings, or roughly 6-7x after adjustments, while the company has a long history of consistent earnings and free cash flow. He has been backing up the truck because the market overreacted and the price offers a large margin of safety.
Emmanuel Lemelson CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest 21:24
Nike was a discounted global brand bargain.
Nike was a screaming bargain at its cheapest price in 15 years. Lemelson argues the tariff-related selloff and strategic missteps obscured an iconic global brand with real R&D and disposable, repeat-purchase footwear. The Vietnam tariff issue was resolved, the stock traded at a discounted cash flow, and he saw little risk of the brand falling out of favor; it returned about 30% in the quarter.
Emmanuel Lemelson CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest 22:55
Kohl's was low-risk tangible-book cigar butt.
Kohl’s was a boring old-school retailer and a Graham-style cigar-butt trading at only about 24 cents on the dollar of tangible book value. Lemelson liked its long operating history, free cash flow and limited downside, with asset value providing coverage even if it were acquired, broken up or sold. It returned almost 27% in the quarter, although he does not think Kohl’s has a great long-term future.
Emmanuel Lemelson CIO of Lemelson Capital Management; Orthodox Priest 36:46
Buy Flower Foods on staple-demand weakness.
Flower Foods makes bread products including Dave’s Killer Bread and Nature’s Own and is getting cheaper and cheaper. Lemelson has been buying because demand for staples like bread, milk and eggs persists through economic cycles; earnings have been remarkably good despite a heavy acquisition that likely overpaid, creating a bump-in-the-road opportunity. He calls it not as screaming a bargain as Centene but a boring, defensive value holding.
Up Next

This The David Lin Report video, published July 10, 2025, features Emmanuel Lemelson discussing TSLA, CNC, NKE, KSS, FLO. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Emmanuel Lemelson  · Tickers: TSLA, CNC, NKE, KSS, FLO