Ideas
Rotate into U.S. cyclicals and small caps
The U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate because of tax cuts and rebates, Trump's push to run the economy hot, and extraordinary AI capex; this supports a rotation out of big tech into cyclicals and small caps.
AI hardware value across semiconductor stack
In 2026 not all AI is created equally; investors should look across the stack for value, and TSMC's chip manufacturing and hardware story is gaining with a three-year horizon of increased capex.
Watch Microsoft double top and software weakness
Microsoft has formed a technical double top and software stocks have had a weak start to the year, a setup worth monitoring for further downside.
ASML is key TSMC capex beneficiary
ASML can be a key beneficiary of TSMC's capex because it ships lithography and chipmaking equipment into TSMC's foundries.
Oil is geopolitical with excess supply
Oil is mainly a geopolitical play with a long-term overhang of excess supply; near-term supply constraints and Iran risk had supported prices, but Trump holding off an immediate attack removes pressure and oil has fallen.
Silver bubble overextended, avoid adding exposure
Silver's move away from the U.S. dollar is fundamentally attractive, but the metal has doubled and gone far ahead of itself, creating an extraordinary bubble; investors who are onboard may want to reduce exposure, though he is not convinced precious metals have topped.
Small caps continue to outperform
The AI capex bubble is not finished trading and the AI inflation/growth trade may have more months to run; he is enthusiastic about small caps continuing to outperform, though he is unsure of the horizon.
Richemont results lift luxury sector
Richemont reported better-than-expected sales on strong Cartier holiday demand, which is likely to lift its shares and bodes well for the broader luxury sector's early recovery.
Swedbank probe closure lifts shares
The U.S. DOJ closed its money-laundering investigation into Swedbank without enforcement action, removing a long-standing overhang and opening the door to more shareholder returns, which could lift the shares.
ASMI benefits from TSMC demand
TSMC's better-than-expected profit signals strong AI demand despite bubble concerns, a positive read-through for European chip stocks, especially ASM International as a key TSMC supplier.
ASML benefits from TSMC capex
If TSMC increases capex, spending should flow to the Dutch semiconductor supply chain and ASML is a key beneficiary, making it a positive read-through.
Broaden internationally beyond U.S. tech
Broadening out of tech and international diversification are key themes for early 2026, supported by improving macro conditions outside the U.S., valuation arguments, catalysts such as Japan's election, and new money seeking laggards.
Buy U.S. banks on regulatory noise
U.S. banks are a buying opportunity because the market is overreacting to credit-card rate-cap noise, which still needs Senate approval; investors should focus on fundamentals despite continued noise.
European banks benefit from diversification
Within Europe, he favors buying the stocks you like, including banks, as part of the broadening trade; a few large stocks such as ASML and banks may need to perform for European indices to advance.
European small caps need domestic growth
European small caps would benefit from a stronger domestic growth cycle; they need liquidity to return, growth to improve and sentiment to get better, and there is potential for broader European domestic growth pockets to perform.
Overweight Japan, hedge currency exposure
Barclays is overweight Japan because growth is decent, the reflationary policy agenda and weaker yen help exporters, and domestic stimulus can support banks; they hedge the currency exposure.
Silver volatile, 100 target but risky
Silver's tariff-driven pullback is modest versus its spectacular surge above $90; prices remain high and geopolitics and the sell-America trade support precious metals, with investors and Citi targeting $100, but extreme volatility means it could reverse if AI equities turn.
Richemont recovery positive but cautious
Richemont's strong result is good news for luxury, with jewelry and Cartier shining, China stabilizing and the watch market improving, but investors should not get carried away on the recovery story.
UK tech poised to outperform
The U.K. innovation economy grew 35% and outpaced global growth, with AI funding up 80% year-on-year and larger, higher-valuation rounds; fintech and deep tech are poised to continue growing and outperform, and the U.K. is well placed to capture that.
TSMC capex validates AI demand, helps ASML
TSMC's 2026 capex guidance of about $54 billion and first-quarter revenue growth of 38% signal strong AI demand from Nvidia and hyperscalers; TSMC's outlook is robust and ASML is an integral beneficiary as it supplies equipment needed for TSMC's delivery to Nvidia.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 15, 2026,
features Guy Johnson, Tom Mackenzie, Mark Cudmore, Chloe Meley, Emmanuel Cau, Martin Ritchie, Andrea Felsted, Emily Turner, Matt
discussing U.S. cyclicals, IWM, TSM, SMH, MSFT, ASML, WTI, SILVER, Richemont, Luxury sector, SWED-A.ST, ASM, Non-U.S. equities, KBE, EUFN, IEUS, EWJ, UK deep tech, UK technology, UK fintech.
20 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Guy Johnson,
Tom Mackenzie,
Mark Cudmore,
Chloe Meley,
Emmanuel Cau,
Martin Ritchie,
Andrea Felsted,
Emily Turner,
Matt
· Tickers:
U.S. cyclicals,
IWM,
TSM,
SMH,
MSFT,
ASML,
WTI,
SILVER,
Richemont,
Luxury sector,
SWED-A.ST,
ASM,
Non-U.S. equities,
KBE,
EUFN,
IEUS,
EWJ,
UK deep tech,
UK technology,
UK fintech
