Martin Ritchie 5.0 2 ideas

Iranian attacks targeted aluminum plants in the UAE (Emirates Global Aluminum) and Bahrain (Aluminum Bahrain), causing aluminum futures to rise 6%. The global aluminum market was already tight, and the Middle East accounts for 9-10% of production. Further damage could lead to prolonged supply disruptions, pushing prices higher. LONG on aluminum due to supply-side shocks and potential for continued price increases from escalating war impacts. If plant damage is minimal and production resumes quickly, price gains may not sustain.

BHP named Brandon Craig, a 25+ year company veteran, as its new CEO. He emphasized "discipline" regarding M&A and underlined a strategic pivot towards growing in copper, mentioning a "shift in the centre of gravity" towards copper-rich regions like the US, Chile, and Argentina. The appointment signals continuity and a safe pair of hands to execute the long-term shift from iron ore to future-facing commodities like copper, which is critical for electrification. The leadership transition is smooth and reinforces a focused growth strategy in copper, but the immediate M&A outlook is cautious. A sustained slowdown in Chinese demand for iron ore (half of BHP's earnings) before copper growth offsets it. Execution risk on copper projects.