Ideas
Gold is becoming new Treasury market.
Gold is benefiting from the Japanese bond selloff and concerns about fiscal sustainability. With markets not treating Treasuries as the usual safe haven, gold is increasingly acting like the new Treasury market.
Avoid long USD/JPY on intervention risk.
USD/JPY is flirting with 2024 intervention levels around 158-162. If Japan intervenes, long dollar-yen positions could see a 3-5% drawdown, so investors are staying light on dollar-yen exposure.
Watch JGB flows as BOJ clarity nears.
Foreign investors are buying JGBs because hedged yields are attractive, with dollar-based investors getting around 6-6.5% on the first year. Domestic investors are net sellers while waiting for BOJ rate-cycle clarity, but domestic flows should return once uncertainty resolves.
Digital assets gain supportive US regulation.
The administration passed historic stablecoin legislation and is working on clarity legislation to bring digital assets and innovation onshore. The goal is to make the US the best regulatory regime for digital assets and reverse the prior administration's hostile stance.
Canada is energy superpower.
Canada is an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy. The first LNG shipment left Canada's west coast last summer, and countries are asking for more Canadian energy as Canada diversifies trade relationships and grows domestic sectors where it is a superpower.
Defense spending is rising globally.
Canada is increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, consistent with NATO allies, with $80 billion in the last budget and doubled troop deployments. Arctic security and NATO's northern and western focus are becoming priorities.
Short JGBs as yields head higher.
The JGB selloff is an underappreciated macro event. Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP in the G10, fiscal expansion is worsening the debt trajectory, and the BOJ may need to hike multiple times, so JGB yields should ultimately be much higher and have not found a floor yet.
Yen carry trade faces unwind.
When JGB yields rise enough to attract Japanese capital back home, Japanese investors will repatriate money from global assets, which will blow up the yen carry trade. The global consequences are large and not yet fully appreciated.
Large-cap tech offers strongest earnings growth.
Tech remains the fastest-growing earnings area, with Q4 earnings expectations of 23-24% versus 4.5% for the S&P ex-tech. Strong balance sheets make large-cap tech less sensitive to higher rates than small caps, so investors should focus on profitable large-cap technology.
Software is weakest spot in tech.
Software is one of the weakest spots within tech. The focus should remain on companies with strong profits rather than software names facing challenges.
Avoid unprofitable tech after recent run.
Unprofitable tech has performed well recently, which is a concern. Investors should prefer profitable large-cap tech with strong earnings rather than unprofitable technology names.
Small caps need to prove earnings.
The early-year rally in small caps and mid caps is common, but these companies still need to prove earnings delivery. So far they have not, so it is a show-me-the-money moment rather than a confirmed rotation.
Prosus is best AI-services play.
Prosus is just getting started, has at least $10 billion more to invest, and sees many opportunities. It aims to connect real-world services to AI for one billion customers, and it can finance buybacks from non-Tencent assets while keeping the Tencent stake.
Tech growth broadens beyond US.
A new world order and decoupling will drive much more technology growth outside the US. Prosus is investing heavily in India, Latin America, and Europe to capture that broadening opportunity.
India tech offers growth opportunities.
Prosus is investing heavily in India, completed five IPOs there this year, and is ready for more acquisitions, investments, and IPOs. India is the fourth-biggest economy and growing more than 7%, offering substantial technology growth.
Latin America tech has room.
Prosus has made acquisitions in Latin America, now has a very big tech group there, and believes it can do much more. Latin America has space for further technology investment.
Prosus committed to European technology investments.
Prosus is committed to Europe and has invested $6 billion in assets such as Just Eat Takeaway and La Centrale. Despite regulatory frustration, the company sees room for much more European technology investment.
Tencent remains an amazing AI asset.
Prosus remains a big believer in Tencent, calling it the biggest company in China and an amazing asset in the artificial intelligence world. It is keeping and even increasing buybacks while selling other assets with less future potential.
Uber will lead AV fleet financing.
Uber knows the revenue generated by human drivers, can sign up fleets on a revenue model with high certainty, and is working with large financial institutions to prove fleet financing. Uber will take initial balance-sheet risk and expects to be a very big part of public and private AV fleet ownership.
Autonomous vehicle market is not overheated.
The autonomous vehicle investment market is not overheated. Potential incremental transportation spend is trillions of dollars, every new vehicle sold ten years from now will be L3 or L4 ready, and hardware costs are falling toward mass-market pricing.
Equities vulnerable to profit-taking on positioning.
The BofA fund manager survey is the most bullish in five years, with 48% of investors having no protection, record-low cash levels, and a hyper-bullish bull-bear ratio. Any trade or geopolitical friction is therefore likely to trigger profit-taking, leaving equities vulnerable.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 20, 2026,
features Guy Johnson, Jordan Rochester, Scott Bessent, Anita Anand, Mark Cudmore, Marija Veitmane, Fabricio Bloisi, Dara Khosrowshahi, Michael Mercieca
discussing GLD, USD/JPY, Japanese government bonds, STABLECOINS, BITO, Canadian energy, ITA, Yen Carry Trade, XLK, IGV, Unprofitable tech, IWM, PRX.AS, Technology outside the US, India technology, Latin America technology, European technology, TCEHY, UBER, Autonomous vehicles, VT.
21 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Guy Johnson,
Jordan Rochester,
Scott Bessent,
Anita Anand,
Mark Cudmore,
Marija Veitmane,
Fabricio Bloisi,
Dara Khosrowshahi,
Michael Mercieca
· Tickers:
GLD,
USD/JPY,
Japanese government bonds,
STABLECOINS,
BITO,
Canadian energy,
ITA,
Yen Carry Trade,
XLK,
IGV,
Unprofitable tech,
IWM,
PRX.AS,
Technology outside the US,
India technology,
Latin America technology,
European technology,
TCEHY,
UBER,
Autonomous vehicles,
VT
