MacroVoices #537 Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back

Watch on YouTube ↗ | June 18, 2026 at 21:32 | 1:28:17 | Macro Voices

Speakers

Brent Johnson — Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital

Patrick Ceresna — Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices

Erik Townsend — Founder & Host, MacroVoices

Summary

Brent Johnson returns to discuss the Iran conflict, arguing a lasting resolution is unlikely and the Strait of Hormuz disruption will have delayed economic effects. He maintains that de-dollarization is a myth, with the US dollar remaining structurally strong, and highlights investment opportunities in agriculture, defense, and stablecoins. Hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna add market views, with Patrick executing a DBA bull call spread for delayed food inflation and Erik forecasting an oil rebound and eventual gold rally.

Brent Johnson expects the Iran kinetic conflict is paused but not permanently resolved, with oil supply disruptions causing delayed impacts into Q4/Q1.
He argues de‑dollarization is largely a myth and the US dollar will stay strong, supported by structural advantages and weaponization capabilities.
Brent sees a food cascade ahead from disrupted fertilizers and crop inputs during planting season, creating agricultural opportunities.
He also identifies global defense rearmament as a massive investment theme and stablecoins as a misunderstood but powerful dollar‑reinforcing tool.
Patrick Ceresna recommends a DBA January 2027 27/30 bull call spread to capture delayed agricultural tightening with defined risk.
Both Patrick and Erik see crude oil repricing higher after forced peace‑deal liquidations, with Erik targeting a rebound to $85–100 based on physical tightness.
Erik Townsend forecasts a spectacular gold rally once Iran oil dislocation and inflation knock‑on effects are fully resolved.
Erik expresses caution on SpaceX stock due to lockup expiry overhang, and remains long‑term bullish on uranium stocks with a seasonal pickup expected in late summer.

Ideas

Brent Johnson Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital 8:21

Oil supply effects will emerge later.

The peace-deal selloff in crude oil is overdone given that physical inventories are extremely tight, the SPR is at its lowest since 1983, and it will take months before strait traffic normalizes. As the market realizes the conflict may not be fully resolved and shortages persist, oil should retrace to fill the chart gap up to $85 and could return above $100 by year-end.

Brent Johnson Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital 40:08

Disrupted planting sets up food cascade.

The market focused on immediate energy and shipping disruptions, but the bigger opportunity is the delayed agricultural tightening from disrupted fertilizers, chemicals, and crop inputs during planting season. Positioning via an Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) January 2027 27/30 bull call spread offers defined risk with convexity to capture a potential food rally into Q4 and Q1.

Brent Johnson Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital 42:01

Massive defense investment opportunity ahead.

Every country will have to rearm, and money will be spent on national defense regardless of affordability. This creates one of the biggest investment opportunities ever, both in the U.S. and abroad, as defense spending becomes a structural priority.

Brent Johnson Founder & CEO, Santiago Capital 46:03

Dollar stays strong, de-dollarization myth.

Despite persistent predictions of de-dollarization, the U.S. dollar remains dominant in FX turnover, cross-border lending, and trade invoicing. The dollar's structural advantages, including the dual carry trade system that puts pressure on the rest of the world, will keep the dollar strong relative to foreign currencies. The 'milkshake theory' continues to work, drawing capital into the U.S.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 67:42

SpaceX lockup expiry risks heavy selling.

SpaceX IPO has an aggressive lockup schedule; a clause can unlock 10% of restricted shares as early as mid-July if the price stays above the IPO price. With further unlockings coming in December, there is risk that the market struggles to absorb heavy insider selling, making the stock unattractive.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 80:00

Gold rally once oil dislocation ends.

Gold is set for a spectacular rally once the Iran oil dislocation and its associated knock-on inflation effects are fully resolved. Current uncertainty and dislocation are temporary, and gold will surge when those pressures end.

Erik Townsend Founder & Host, MacroVoices 81:34

Uranium long-term bull, seasonal bid later.

Uranium remains a strong long-term bull market, and though performance has been lackluster, the market is seasonal. A pickup is expected as the World Nuclear Association conference approaches, with late August/early September likely to bring renewed buying interest in uranium stocks.

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This Macro Voices video, published June 18, 2026, features Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend discussing WTI, DBA, ITA, US Dollar Index (DXY), SPCX, GLD, Uranium Stocks. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Brent Johnson, Erik Townsend · Tickers: WTI, DBA, ITA, US Dollar Index (DXY), SPCX, GLD, Uranium Stocks