Ideas
Oil at $56 is very cheap.
WTI at $56 is one of the cheapest assets in the world and his favorite commodity for 2026. The consensus oversupply is exaggerated; at low-to-mid $50s much US shale does not make money and would shut down, while OPEC and Saudi Arabia are also unhappy with mid-$50s oil, making a supply response likely.
Small caps are left for dead.
Small-cap stocks have been left for dead and are not in a bubble, part of the broader market broadening beyond mega-cap tech. He likes some small- and mid-cap parts of the market, though tariffs are a risk because smaller companies have less ability to absorb or pass through costs.
AI tech trade is exhausting itself.
The AI tech trade is exhausting itself and the bell has rung multiple times. AI capex is the bubble, not everything. Oracle's selloff and Blue Owl financing pullback, CoreWeave questions, Gemini 3, and doubts about OpenAI economics highlight risk. Hyperscalers have shifted from asset-light, cash-generative models to capital-intensive businesses with more debt, lease obligations and depreciation, which pressures future cash flow and earnings growth.
Long-term bonds face continued bear market.
Long-term interest rates around the world are trending higher even as central banks cut short rates, showing that central banks have lost influence over the long end. After 175 basis points of Fed cuts, the US 10-year yield is down only about 10 basis points and the 30-year is slightly higher, so the bear market in long duration continues and long-term bonds remain unattractive.
Gold and silver remain long-term bullish.
Precious metals are not a bubble when measured against the rise in central bank balance sheets, global money supply and total financial assets. Silver at $65 is barely above $50 from 45 years ago. They have trimmed some exposure after vertical moves but remain very long and positive with more upside expected.
International stocks remain a bullish value play.
He remains bullish on international stocks after a strong year. The market broadened beyond the Magnificent Seven in 2025, and one year of outperformance does not make international markets a bubble. As a value-seeking investor he finds more opportunities abroad, and a weaker dollar should help international returns.
Oracle faces AI debt financing risk.
Oracle is the bellwether that rang the bell when it gave back its prior quarter spike. Its stock sold off before earnings as investors analyzed its debt and lease obligations and heavy reliance on OpenAI. The Blue Owl financing for a 1GW OpenAI facility fell through on concerns about Oracle's rising debt, highlighting higher cost of capital and financing risk.
US dollar will continue to weaken.
The US dollar has had a tough year and he expects it to continue weakening. Fed rate cuts, ongoing trade war, foreign investors hedging US asset exposure, and a softening AI tech trade are all negative for the dollar. A weaker dollar also helps international and emerging-market local-currency investments.
EM local bonds offer attractive real yields.
Local-currency emerging market bonds are really attractive because of the interest rate differential, very high real rates, and the expected weaker dollar, which provides a currency tailwind.
Cash provides yield and optionality.
Cash is always important to have because it provides yield in the current rate environment and optionality or dry powder if markets face difficulties or if the AI trade continues to lose dominance.
Commodities remain an attractive hard-asset allocation.
Commodities are an attractive place to invest as the commodity bull market continues and sticky inflation volatility supports hard assets. He prefers specific commodities like precious metals and oil, but the broad commodity allocation remains favorable.
Fertilizer stocks are a beaten-up value.
He owns some fertilizer stocks as a beaten-up group, viewing them as an attractive value and commodity-linked area.
Private credit is a risk to watch.
A huge amount of money has piled into private credit, and when too much money chases a market there may not be enough good loans for all that cash. This is a risk he is watching, with potential implications for financing conditions.
This The David Lin Report video, published December 18, 2025,
features Peter Boockvar
discussing WTI, IWM, AI-SECTOR, MAGS, TLT, GLD, SILVER, International stocks, ORCL, DXY, EMLC, CASH, DBC, SOIL, BIZD.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Peter Boockvar
· Tickers:
WTI,
IWM,
AI-SECTOR,
MAGS,
TLT,
GLD,
SILVER,
International stocks,
ORCL,
DXY,
EMLC,
CASH,
DBC,
SOIL,
BIZD
