This Weekend | Trump on Iran, Oil Price Outlook, Mullin Replaces Noem
Speakers
**Kevin Hassett** — White House Economic Advisor (via clip)
— NEC Director
Summary
- War Escalation: The conflict in Iran ("Operation Epic Fury") has entered its second week. President Trump is threatening "complete destruction" and targeting previously off-limits areas. The US claims to have destroyed 42 Iranian naval ships and neutralized their air force.
- Energy Crisis: The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to shipping. Brent Crude is over $92/barrel and expected to hit $100 shortly. Kuwait has halted production due to storage constraints.
- Geopolitical Realignment: To mitigate oil price spikes, the US is easing sanctions to allow India to buy Russian oil. Russia is providing intelligence to Iran regarding US troop locations.
- Defense Industrial Base: Major US defense contractors are ramping up production of "exquisite" munitions (Tomahawks, SM6, PrSM) as stockpiles deplete.
- Domestic Policy: Kristi Noem has been ousted from DHS; Markwayne Mullin is the presumptive replacement. Trump has launched a "Shield of America" coalition to use lethal force against cartels in the Western Hemisphere.
Trade Ideas
Novo Nordisk has agreed to sell its weight loss drugs on the Hims & Hers platform. This resolves a major overhang (the dispute over copycat medications) and legitimizes HIMS as a distribution channel for GLP-1s. The "battle is over." Long. This partnership secures supply and regulatory safety for HIMS' most important growth vertical. Execution risks on the partnership details; margin compression if Novo demands high take-rates.
McKee notes that rising pump prices are a tax on the consumer, and jet fuel (tied to oil) is spiking. Lisa Mateo notes airlines in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain have halted operations. Airlines face a double whammy: exploding input costs (fuel is their biggest expense) and route disruptions/cancellations in a key transit corridor (Middle East). Short. Margins will be crushed by $100 oil, and global travel sentiment is hit by war fears. Government bailouts or a sudden drop in oil prices if the Strait reopens quickly.
Lee reports that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has "virtually" stopped. 20 million barrels/day usually pass through; now almost nothing is moving. Kuwait is cutting production because storage is full. This is a physical supply shock, not just speculation. While the US is energy independent, oil is a global commodity. The removal of Middle Eastern supply forces Asian buyers to bid up global prices. $100/barrel is explicitly forecast "within days." Long. The physical constraint on egress routes forces prices higher regardless of US production. US releasing SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) aggressively; demand destruction from recession fears.
The US is issuing waivers allowing India to buy Russian oil to keep global prices stable. Lee states Russia is the "only clear winner" and this allows India to boost purchases. While the rest of the world pays a war premium for energy, India is securing discounted energy inputs. This structural cost advantage boosts Indian industrial margins and economic stability relative to peers. Long. India benefits from the geopolitical arbitrage. Secondary sanctions if the US changes its mind; global risk-off sentiment hurting Emerging Markets generally.
Sanders explicitly names Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX Corp (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) as the primary providers of the munitions being expended (PrSM, Tomahawks, SM6, solid rocket motors). He notes a consensus to "ramp up" production to highest levels. The war in Iran is a rate-of-consumption event. The US must replenish stockpiles not just for this conflict, but to maintain deterrence against China (2027 timeline mentioned). This guarantees long-term government contracts and revenue visibility for these specific primes. Long. These companies are the "picks and shovels" of the current kinetic escalation. Supply chain bottlenecks preventing rapid production scaling; potential ceasefire reducing urgency (though unlikely given Trump's rhetoric).
Reporting confirms the US military is using a digital mission control platform called "Maven Smart System," produced by Palantir, which integrates Anthropic's Claude AI for targeting in Iran. This is "battle-testing" Palantir's software in a high-intensity conflict. Successful deployment serves as the ultimate proof-of-concept for Western militaries, likely accelerating adoption and contract awards. Long. Operational success in "Operation Epic Fury" validates the valuation premium. Ethical backlash or software errors leading to civilian casualties that cause political fallout.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 07, 2026, features Lisa Mateo, Michael McKee, Julian Lee, Wayne Sanders discussing HIMS, JETS, USO, INDA, LMT, RTX, NOC, PLTR. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Lisa Mateo, Michael McKee, Julian Lee, Wayne Sanders · Tickers: HIMS, JETS, USO, INDA, LMT, RTX, NOC, PLTR