When Will Bitcoin Bottom?
Speakers
Jonah Van Bourg
— Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol
Avi Felman
— Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Summary
Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss why crypto remains weak despite a bullish political backdrop. They debate Bitcoin's bottoming setup, the unwind of the Trump pump, and why altcoins are in a savage bear market. The hosts outline trades including buying Bitcoin on value, shorting weak alts, a Cardano/Litecoin pair, and watching RWA tokenization, with macro risks from Trump policy and Iran in focus.
- Bitcoin has lagged despite pro-crypto political developments; hosts remain bullish but expect macro-driven volatility.
- Jonah sees Bitcoin attractive at 75K and expects an S&P floor around 10% lower before rate cuts help risk assets.
- Avi views Bitcoin as undervalued with institutional inflows still coming, while altcoins face a different, much weaker market.
- Altcoins are in a severe bear market; Jonah favors shorting weak alts and ran a Cardano/Litecoin pairs trade.
- Avi sees green shoots in RWA tokenization and stablecoin-driven value transfer.
- Iran/Strait of Hormuz tail risk could spike oil and hurt risk assets; a Ukraine ceasefire could lower commodities and inflation.
- Trading is dominated by macro correlation and algo flows; fundamental pair-trade P&L would signal a turn.
Ideas
Bullish Bitcoin; buy 75K with both hands
Remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin despite the macro selloff. He argues Bitcoin is holding up better than expected, with the Bitcoin/S&P ratio stable, so much of the weakness is macro-driven rather than crypto-specific. Because he thinks the S&P is floored about 10% lower by policy support, Bitcoin might dip another 10-20% at most before rate cuts or stimulus buoy risk assets. He sees attractive risk-reward in the low 80s and especially high 70s, calls 75K the top of the pre-election range and a level to buy with both hands, and notes the political/regulatory backdrop is much better than before the election.
S&P floored 10% lower by policy
Trump's tax and GDP realignment is causing volatility, but he does not think the administration has a mandate to tank asset prices. If the S&P drops another 10%, it enters real correction/recession territory, and policymakers will likely put a floor under the market using rate cuts, ample cash, and private credit. He thinks the S&P is floored roughly 10% below current levels, after which stimulus or rate cuts should buoy risk assets.
Bitcoin undervalued; institutional inflows still coming
Sees Bitcoin as attractive on value despite no momentum. If the US government buys even a small amount of Bitcoin, BTC could reach 150K, making 75K roughly a 2x setup; the main risk is equity-market volatility, and once VIX sustains below 20 and the S&P grinds higher, Bitcoin should do well because investors are underallocated relative to positive developments. He also argues institutions are still coming: the SEC stopped suing institutions and new pools of capital from sovereign wealth funds, states, and sovereigns should benefit Bitcoin, so he is not worried about new capital entering Bitcoin.
Iran war could spike oil massively
Flags a kinetic war in Iran as an underpriced exogenous macro risk, which he puts at about 5% probability. Iran could shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world's oil flows, causing oil to spike to $200-$300 per barrel, tanking the S&P and discouraging crypto/altcoin buying. Worth monitoring as a tail-risk setup.
Altcoins in savage bear market; avoid
Altcoins are in a savage bear market with dire sentiment; retail is tapped out and it is unclear where new funds will come from. Unlike Bitcoin, non-BTC crypto cannot be held passively because it is open-source, has low switching costs, and can be disrupted quickly, requiring constant underwriting. New capital is coming into Bitcoin, not altcoins, making altcoins unattractive to own.
Ethereum TVL bleeding; avoid ETH
Ethereum's total value locked has declined over four years both in USD and in ETH terms, meaning usage is bleeding even after adjusting for price. With altcoin fundamentals now mattering and changing quickly, ETH looks unattractive.
Inverse alt season; short garbage altcoins
The old alt-season model is broken: thousands of tokens, infinite new supply as blockchain/token creation is commoditized, finite capital, and most ex-BTC assets are down or flat since the election. Altcoins no longer act as beta to Bitcoin; fundamentals matter and deteriorate quickly. In this environment, shorting garbage alts has worked and should continue for another two to three months until fundamental stories reemerge.
Short Cardano, long Litecoin pair
At the Trump crypto summit, it was clear Cardano's strategic-reserve inclusion was being walked back and no sovereign buying of Cardano would happen; meanwhile Litecoin was well off highs ahead of potential ETF approval. He put on a notional-neutral pairs trade short Cardano / long Litecoin. P&L has been flat so far, which he interprets as algo/correlation violence, but when fundamental pair P&L emerges it should signal a market turn.
Short Cardano, long Litecoin pair
At the Trump crypto summit, it was clear Cardano's strategic-reserve inclusion was being walked back and no sovereign buying of Cardano would happen; meanwhile Litecoin was well off highs ahead of potential ETF approval. He put on a notional-neutral pairs trade short Cardano / long Litecoin. P&L has been flat so far, which he interprets as algo/correlation violence, but when fundamental pair P&L emerges it should signal a market turn.
RWA tokenization sector at growth inflection
Sees green shoots in the RWA sector. Stablecoin growth shows blockchain is better for moving value, and the next step is tokenizing real-world assets. Tokenized US Treasuries have grown to about $4.6B, and RWA platforms are at an inflection point with rapid growth likely, making the sector more attractive than lottery-ticket meme coins.
Short Dogwifhat; lottery ticket failing
Dogwifhat is just a lottery ticket and is not working; he says it was a good short and likely will continue to be a good short as meme-coin mania fades.
Up Next
This 1000x Podcast video, published March 19, 2025, features Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman discussing BTC, SPY, WTI, ALTCOINS, ETH, ADA, LTC, RWA, WIF. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonah Van Bourg, Avi Felman · Tickers: BTC, SPY, WTI, ALTCOINS, ETH, ADA, LTC, RWA, WIF