Gold Hits $3,000: 'Things Are Breaking', What's Next For Markets? | Ryan King
Speakers
Ryan King
— EVP of Capital Markets at Equinox Gold
Summary
Ryan King, Senior VP of Corporate Development and IR at Calibre Mining, discusses gold breaking $3,000 amid recession fears, tariffs, global debt concerns, and fiat currency debasement. He argues gold and hard assets are early in a major supercycle and that gold mining equities, especially well-run producers, remain undervalued versus bullion. He also details the proposed all-stock Calibre/Equinox Gold merger, emphasizing complementary Canadian assets, scale, deleveraging, and a valuation re-rating opportunity.
- Gold briefly broke $3,000 as recession and tariff concerns mounted.
- Ryan King attributes gold strength to fiat debasement, central bank buying, and global debt risks.
- He sees hard assets, including gold, silver, and copper, as early in a major supercycle.
- He argues gold mining equities are undervalued relative to physical gold.
- He says well-run gold producers have cleaned up balance sheets and are generating strong free cash flow.
- Calibre and Equinox Gold announced an all-stock merger creating a larger Canadian-focused gold producer.
- The pro forma company is expected to produce about 950koz in 2025 and reach 1.2Moz per year, with rapid deleveraging and price-to-NAV re-rating potential.
- Macro risks include tariffs, DOGE/debt reduction limits, and stretched US equity valuations.
Ideas
Hard assets in major supercycle.
Fiat currencies are losing purchasing power, central banks are buying gold broadly, and global debt, inflation, tariff, and geopolitical risks are driving investors toward physical stores of value. Gold is at all-time highs against most currencies, and Ryan King believes this is the early stage of a major supercycle for gold and hard assets, specifically naming silver and copper as part of the opportunity.
US stocks overvalued versus global equities.
US stocks have dominated since the GFC, but Ryan King says they are now incredibly overvalued versus global equities. This relative valuation gap supports diversifying away from US equities toward cheaper global equities and hard assets.
US stocks overvalued versus global equities.
US stocks have dominated since the GFC, but Ryan King says they are now incredibly overvalued versus global equities. This relative valuation gap supports diversifying away from US equities toward cheaper global equities and hard assets.
Gold miners undervalued versus bullion.
Gold mining equities have lagged physical gold and are still trading as if gold were roughly $2,000-$2,500/oz, below their 2011 levels even though gold is now around $3,000. With portfolio managers heavily underweight gold and gold equities versus historical norms, he sees a significant catch-up and re-rating opportunity as miners generate strong cash flow.
Merger creates undervalued gold producer.
The all-stock Calibre/Equinox merger combines complementary Canadian cornerstone assets—Equinox's Greenstone and Calibre's Valentine—to create a roughly 600koz/yr Canadian gold producer, the second largest in Canada. The pro forma company is expected to produce about 950koz this year toward 1.2Moz, with about $450M cash and $1.4B debt that can be rapidly deleveraged at $1.5-$1.9B EBITDA; it trades at the bottom quartile of price-to-NAV versus peers, offering an attractive entry point and re-rating opportunity as assets ramp and teams integrate.
