Ideas
AI story remains alive and scalable.
He does not think the AI story is dead. He points to amazing things happening with AI globally, deregulation, and eventual AI scaling as positives that can make stocks cheap, though near-term tariff and policy uncertainty makes committing difficult.
Bitcoin is a favored volatile speculation.
He loves speculating with highly volatile assets like Bitcoin and holds a small Bitcoin weight in the commodities sleeve. He echoes Saylor's view that Bitcoin volatility is a feature not a bug, and he expects the crypto story to survive the current uncertainty.
Gold as flight-to-safety portfolio hedge.
Gold is a huge weight in the commodities sleeve and one of his favorite holdings. He likes it as a flight-to-safety asset that is separate from the financial system and less subject to daily policy whims, with the move toward $3,000 reinforcing that safe-haven demand.
Equal-weight permanent portfolio for drawdown protection.
He favors a permanent-portfolio approach with roughly 25% each in equities, commodities, bonds, and cash/alternatives. It is massively diversified by design, keeps him invested and provides dry powder, and while it will likely underperform VOO or the S&P 500 over 20 years, it should suffer much smaller drawdowns (about 5-10% versus 30-50% for the S&P) in major crises.
Long-term speculative allocation favors equities.
For the speculative part of his portfolio, long-term it is equities or equity derivatives. He is not a short-term trader and prefers active ETFs, but the permanent portfolio equity sleeve is deliberately risk-on because one of the four quadrants should do well and he wants to beat VOO when equities lead.
Granny Shots powers growth sleeve.
Within the equity sleeve, he uses the Granny Shots ETF for growth. It has a long track record, was converted into an ETF roughly four to five months ago, has already grown to almost $1 billion, and he views it as a strong growth allocation.
GVLU adds Greenblatt value exposure.
He uses Joel Greenblatt's Gotham value ETF, GVLU, for the value end of the equity sleeve, pairing it with the growth holdings. Greenblatt is a well-known value manager, and GVLU provides that value exposure in the portfolio.
Disruption at reasonable price via DARP.
He holds DARP for disruption at a reasonable price. Managed by the Grizzle team, it targets hard money and tech, aims at Cathie Wood-style innovation but with more attention to price and quality, and has been early on names like Nvidia and crypto miners.
SFY offers cheap large-cap beta.
He uses SFY as cheap beta in the equity sleeve. It is SoFi's version of the US large-cap 500 with a slight growth tilt and a 5-basis-point fee, making it a low-cost core equity holding.
Managed futures diversify via trend following.
He allocates to managed futures/trend following as a diversifier and prefers letting skilled traders like Jerry Parker run the strategy. The portfolio includes a managed futures product from a partnership between Jerry Parker and Meb Faber.
Short-duration fixed income limits duration risk.
In the cash/alternatives sleeve, he holds actual short-duration fixed income to generate income with less duration risk and to provide dry powder when other assets fall.
SPAC arbitrage captures low-risk spread.
He uses SPAC arbitrage as a low-risk fixed-income-like alternative, buying SPACs that have announced they will not do a deal to capture the small spread.
TAIL hedges S&P with bond-funded puts.
He holds the Cambria tail-risk fund TAIL, which owns bonds but uses the bond yield to buy puts on the S&P 500. This is intended to provide dry powder and protection when things go wrong in other buckets.
FIRE income ETF yields stable 4%.
He built a second FIRE ETF for retirement income that seeks a stable NAV and yields at least 4%, so retirees can take income without selling 4% of principal each year.
Residential real estate benefits from rent hikes.
Residential real estate is part of the commodities sleeve and has been a really good play for the portfolio, helped by rent hikes.
This The David Lin Report video, published March 14, 2025,
features Michael Venuto
discussing AI-SECTOR, BTC, GLD, FIRE, Equities, GRNY, GVLU, DARP, SFY, Managed Futures, BSV, SPAC arbitrage, TAIL, Second FIRE income ETF, REZ.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Michael Venuto
· Tickers:
AI-SECTOR,
BTC,
GLD,
FIRE,
Equities,
GRNY,
GVLU,
DARP,
SFY,
Managed Futures,
BSV,
SPAC arbitrage,
TAIL,
Second FIRE income ETF,
REZ
