Commodity Supercycle? How to Invest Without Speculating | Jonathan Wellum
Summary
- The "Commodity Supercycle" is driven by long-term structural deficits: deglobalization, re-shoring, AI/data center build-outs, and the green energy transition.
- A massive disconnect exists between the S&P 500 and commodity prices; the S&P-to-Commodity ratio is currently ~25x (historically 12-14x), suggesting commodities are undervalued relative to the tech assets they support.
- Investors should look beyond raw metals to "pick and shovel" plays: the companies building the data centers, upgrading the grid, and supplying the energy (nuclear/fossil fuels) required to power AI.
- Warning: Avoid leveraged ETFs (2x/3x) in the commodity space; recent volatility has wiped out 60-70% of value in days. Stick to high-quality businesses with moats.
Trade Ideas
Wellum acknowledges these are the core drivers of the cycle but notes, "buying it today is tougher based upon just the value because you are paying a premium." While the fundamental growth story is intact (AI demand), the valuation risk is high. These are great businesses, but the entry price requires caution or hedging (options) rather than blind buying at current levels. WATCH. Wait for a pullback or use protection strategies; do not chase blindly. Valuation compression; cyclical downturn in semi demand.
Wellum states that data centers "have to be owned by somebody, they have to be run by somebody" and specifically names Digital Realty and Prologis as beneficiaries. The AI and robotics revolution requires physical infrastructure. While tech stocks are expensive, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) that own the physical server farms and logistics hubs provide a tangible way to play the digital growth theme with hard assets. LONG. These are the landlords of the AI revolution. Interest rate sensitivity affecting REIT valuations.
Wellum argues fossil fuels are "hated" but necessary, and notes a shortage of uranium because "nuclear has become back in vogue" for powering data centers (citing big tech investing in nuclear). The energy demand from AI is massive. Renewables cannot provide sufficient baseload power. Therefore, capital must flow back to traditional energy (Oil/Gas) and dense energy (Uranium) to keep the lights on for the digital economy. LONG. Contrarian play on "hated" assets that are critical for grid stability. Political/Regulatory pushback against fossil fuels; safety incidents in nuclear.
Wellum suggests looking for businesses that will "profit from efficiencies" of AI, naming Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, and ServiceNow. Beyond the chipmakers, the real value of AI lies in productivity gains. These companies are integrating AI to lower costs (Amazon), improve healthcare outcomes (Intuitive Surgical), or streamline enterprise workflows (ServiceNow), which drives margin expansion. LONG. These are the "users" of AI that will monetize the technology through efficiency. High valuations; execution risk in AI integration.
Jonathan Wellum
CEO and CIO at Rocklink
Wellum highlights the need for construction, engineering, and grid updates, mentioning Schneider Electric, Brookfield Infrastructure, Carlisle (roofing), Johnson Controls, "Verta" (Vertiv), and "Quant services" (Quanta Services). You cannot have AI without electricity and cooling. These companies provide the essential infrastructure (HVAC, roofing, grid engineering, power management) required to build and maintain the new data centers and re-shored manufacturing plants. LONG. These are the industrial enablers of the tech supercycle. Cyclical downturns in construction spending or government permitting delays.
Jonathan Wellum
CEO and CIO at Rocklink
Wellum identifies silver as a "strategic metal" with a chronic shortage, essential for weapons, conduction, and electronics, alongside its role as a monetary debasement hedge. Silver has a dual-demand driver: industrial use (solar/AI/electronics) and monetary protection (debt/inflation). The supply-demand imbalance suggests prices must rise to incentivize new mining production. LONG. Buy the metal (SLV) or the miners (SIL) to capture the repricing. High volatility; industrial recession reducing demand.
Up Next
This Wealthion video, published February 10, 2026, features Jonathan Wellum discussing NVDA, TSM, DLR, PLD, CCJ, XOM, CVX, AMZN, ISRG, NOW, SBGSY, BIP, CSL, JCI, VRT, PWR, SLV, SIL. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jonathan Wellum · Tickers: NVDA, TSM, DLR, PLD, CCJ, XOM, CVX, AMZN, ISRG, NOW, SBGSY, BIP, CSL, JCI, VRT, PWR, SLV, SIL