Here's how to trade the surge in stocks
Speakers
Stephanie Link — Chief Investment Strategist, Hightower
— Hightower CIS
Joe Terranova — Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners
— Virtus strategist
Josh Brown — CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
— Ritholtz Wealth CEO
Summary
- The panel dismisses a weak Retail Sales print, favoring real-time bank data (BofA/JPM) showing consumer spending is actually up (Jan spend +5% YoY).
- Mag-7 CapEx is projected at $761 billion this year (up 75% YoY), acting as a massive stimulus regardless of Fed policy.
- Bond market volatility has collapsed, which Joe Terranova argues is the most critical green light for credit availability and equity stability.
- The consensus is that the economy has decoupled from the need for immediate Fed cuts; growth is driven by productivity and AI investment rather than monetary easing.
Trade Ideas
Mag-7 capital expenditure is hitting $761 billion this year, a 75% increase year-over-year. This massive spending is effectively a private-sector stimulus package that dwarfs government policy. This capital must flow somewhere—specifically to hardware, data centers, and productivity software. Long the mega-cap tech names spending the money and the semiconductor/infrastructure plays receiving it. ROI on AI spend disappoints, causing a rapid contraction in CapEx budgets.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan stated January spending was up 5%. JPM explicitly stated on their call that after 12 quarters, there is still no sign of credit stress. The banks possess the "real" data (debit/credit flows) which contradicts the lagging/noisy government Retail Sales reports. If spending is up and credit quality is holding, banks are undervalued relative to the "recession" risk being priced in by bears. Long Money Center Banks as the most accurate reflection of economic health. Regulatory changes or a delayed wave of defaults in commercial real estate.
Despite "consumer cracking" narratives, high-end travel remains robust. Brown notes people are "crisscrossing the country" and JPM data shows no explosion in credit card delinquencies. The recovery is K-shaped. While low-end retail misses, the upper-middle class (the target demo for Hilton/Marriott) continues to spend on experiences. If the consumer were truly broken, travel would collapse before retail; it hasn't. Long premium hospitality chains as a play on the resilient, wealthy consumer. A sudden spike in unemployment affecting the white-collar sector.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published February 10, 2026, features Stephanie Link, Josh Brown discussing FNGS, BOTZ, JPM, BAC, WFC, MAR, HLT. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stephanie Link, Josh Brown · Tickers: FNGS, BOTZ, JPM, BAC, WFC, MAR, HLT