Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & NYC housing affordability - 02/10/26 | Audio Only
Speakers
Becky Quick — Anchor, CNBC
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Andrew Ross Sorkin — Anchor, CNBC
— CNBC Squawk Box host
Summary
- The AI CapEx Boom: Alphabet (Google) is raising $20B in debt to fund AI ambitions, with CapEx potentially hitting $185B this year. Amazon is also ramping spend. There is skepticism about whether this is a "high water mark" or the new normal.
- Chip Tariffs Waived: The Commerce Department is reportedly planning to waive tariffs for hyperscalers (Tech Giants) on chips bought from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), acknowledging that onshoring 40% of supply is "impossible."
- Housing Market Bifurcation: A clear distinction is drawn between "Top 20" public homebuilders and small regional builders. The latter are paralyzed because regional banks have stopped lending.
- NYC Contrarian Bull Case: Despite negative headlines, NYC office leasing is having its best quarter since 2019, and luxury housing sales are up 30%.
- Prediction Markets vs. Sportsbooks: Kalshi handled $1B in volume for the Super Bowl, signaling a shift where regulated prediction markets are competing with traditional sports betting, though the CEO argues they are fundamentally different products (hedging vs. gambling).
Trade Ideas
"The Commerce Department is planning to waive some of the taxes for the so-called hyperscalers on chips that they buy from Taiwan Semiconductor." The threat of tariffs was a major overhang for TSM. If the US government admits that onshoring 40% of supply is "impossible" (as stated by Taiwan's negotiator) and grants waivers, TSM retains its pricing power and volume without the friction of trade war taxes. Bullish for TSM as it removes a geopolitical regulatory cap on their sales to US Tech Giants. The waivers are voluntary or conditional on US investment, which could drag on margins.
Becky Quick
Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
"Alphabet tapping the US debt market to raise $20 billion... capital expenditures this year could reach up to $185 billion." This is an unprecedented level of spend. While it shows commitment to AI, it drastically reduces Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the short term. The trade here is ambiguous: it's bullish for the *suppliers* of that spend (NVDA, Energy), but potentially bearish for Google's margins if the ROI doesn't materialize quickly. Watch. The stock may struggle to appreciate if investors balk at the massive CapEx bill without immediate revenue spikes. AI becomes a commodity and the $185B spend results in margin compression.
Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
"They can't afford to compete with the big banks... they don't have the capacity to be able to be lenders there." Rechler, a board director at the NY Fed, is explicitly stating that the business model for regional banks is currently broken regarding commercial and construction lending. If they cannot lend, they cannot generate yield, and they lose their primary utility in the economy compared to "Too Big To Fail" banks. Avoid the sector until the yield curve normalizes or consolidation occurs. A sudden, aggressive Fed rate cut could rapidly repair regional bank balance sheets.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published February 10, 2026, features Becky Quick, Scott Rechler discussing TSM, GOOGL, KRE. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Becky Quick, Scott Rechler · Tickers: TSM, GOOGL, KRE