Is Housing About To Crash? Where Are Mortgage Rates Headed? Redfin's Chief Economist Answers
Summary
- Mortgage Rate Outlook: Redfin forecasts 30-year fixed mortgage rates to average 6.3% for the year. Rates are expected to remain stable rather than drop significantly, as inflation remains sticky and the labor market is "wobbly."
- Regional Bifurcation: A sharp divergence is occurring. Florida and Texas are seeing price corrections and rent markdowns due to pandemic-era overbuilding (especially in condos/multifamily). Conversely, the Midwest and Northeast remain tight with stable or rising prices due to lack of supply.
- Construction Headwinds: National new construction is expected to be "pretty weak" this year due to high borrowing costs for builders, labor constraints (immigration crackdowns), and material tariffs.
- The "Standoff": A massive bid-ask spread exists. Sellers are "in denial" anchoring to pandemic highs, while buyers are constrained by rates. This leads to low transaction volume and properties lingering on the market for 2+ months.
- Institutional Regulation: The speaker argues that Trump’s executive order to curb institutional investors will be ineffective, as they represent <3% of the market. Banning them won't solve affordability.
Trade Ideas
"Sellers are kind of slow to catch up and a little bit in denial about reality... Pending home sales are declining and the homes that are selling are taking more than two months to find a buyer." Real estate tech companies (Redfin, Zillow, Opendoor) are volume-dependent businesses. They need transactions to occur to generate fees/ad revenue. A market characterized by a "standoff" between delusional sellers and rate-locked buyers results in transaction stagnation. AVOID. Without a surge in transaction volume (which requires lower rates or capitulating sellers), these stocks lack a growth catalyst. A sudden drop in mortgage rates (below 6%) could unleash pent-up demand.
"On a national scale, I think new construction is going to be pretty weak this year... They're facing labor constraints in part due to all the immigration crackdowns. They're also facing tariffs when it comes to some of their materials." The Home Construction ETFs (ITB/XHB) rely on volume and margin. The speaker outlines a "triple whammy" for builders: High financing costs, expensive/scarce labor, and tariff-induced material inflation. Weak construction volume directly translates to lower earnings for the sector. AVOID. While builders have been resilient, the macro headwinds described (specifically tariffs and labor) suggest margin compression ahead. Builders often offer mortgage rate buydowns that existing sellers cannot, potentially stealing market share even in a weak market.
Daryl Fairweather
Chief Economist at Redfin
"Condos in Florida... have come down in price a lot... Broadly in Texas and Florida, prices have come down too... We're seeing down housing markets where there has been a lot of multifamily construction." She explicitly notes landlords are marking down rents in these areas due to oversupply of 0-1 bedroom units. Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) and Camden Property Trust (CPT) are heavily exposed to the "Sunbelt" (FL, TX) multifamily market. If supply is exceeding demand and rents are being marked down to fill units, Net Operating Income (NOI) for these REITs will compress. SHORT/AVOID. The "Sunbelt Premium" trade has reversed; oversupply is now the dominant narrative in these specific geographies. Unexpected surge in migration to these states absorbs supply faster than anticipated.
Daryl Fairweather
Chief Economist at Redfin
Regarding Trump's move to curb institutional investors: "No, I don't think it will make a difference... Institutional investors represent a pretty small share... If you banned institutional large investors... they would probably just be replaced by smaller investors." The market recently sold off Single-Family Rental (SFR) names like Invitation Homes (INVH) on fears of regulatory crackdowns. The expert view here is that such regulation is toothless and won't materially impact the market structure. WATCH. If the stock price is depressed solely due to regulatory fear, the expert suggests that fear is misplaced. However, the underlying asset values in their core markets (often Sunbelt) are softening, making this a "Watch" rather than a "Long." Legislation could be more aggressive than the economist anticipates.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published February 10, 2026, features Daryl Fairweather discussing RDFN, Z, OPEN, ITB, XHB, MAA, CPT, EQR, INVH, AMH. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Daryl Fairweather · Tickers: RDFN, Z, OPEN, ITB, XHB, MAA, CPT, EQR, INVH, AMH