Ideas
Cautious on U.S. duration.
She expects two Fed cuts in 2026, but political pressure on the Fed keeps policy risk elevated, reinforcing a cautious approach to U.S. duration. She also sees fiscal debt and fiscal dominance driving curve steepening, so she is not positioning for clean long-duration exposure.
Prefer credit and equities over cash.
She scores risk appetite a six out of ten versus neutral five, citing ample liquidity, a resilient U.S. economy, potential broadening of EPS growth, and an accommodative central bank. In an environment with geopolitical risks, she prefers to stay invested through credit and equity.
Expect global yield curve steepening.
She expects curve steepening globally, from Japan to Europe and the U.S., because high fiscal debt and fiscal dominance are lifting long-end risk premiums while fixed-income volatility remains compressed. U.S. fiscal policy is particularly prominent in driving this steepening bias.
Expect ECB cuts despite hawkish talk.
She expects the ECB to cut rates, which she notes is not a consensus call, and argues that despite differing regional fundamentals, the ECB cannot move too far in the opposite direction while the Fed is cutting. Some policy asynchrony is justified.
Cautious on China; weak domestic demand.
She is cautious on China because domestic demand and the property and housing sector remain weak and this weakness is likely to persist. Policy support should be present but will not be a bazooka, limiting the scope for a strong rebound.
Stay constructive on gold; central bank demand.
She raised her gold target to 4750 and sees the 2028 target even higher. Gold acts as a portfolio diversifier while the U.S. dollar's reserve role is challenged, and central banks continue structural buying to diversify reserves. She remains constructive and fine-tunes the allocation.
Structurally bearish oil; may hit 50s.
He says the oil market is structurally bearish due to oversupply, including continued strength from South America and Venezuela, and expects oil could trade in the 50s this year. Geopolitical flare-ups in Iran, Venezuela, Ukraine and Russia, and the Black Sea keep a risk premium and cause traders to buy despite the bearish broader picture.
Red Sea reopening could reverse shipping gains.
He says the shipping market has been volatile and the key variable is whether the Red Sea reopens and shipping companies become more comfortable sailing there. If the Red Sea were to reopen, some of the gains in container and shipping rates could reverse.
TSMC shows AI demand still structural.
He says TSMC's strong results and record revenue, with a real capex number around 52 billion dollars that is 70 percent higher, show AI demand is structural and necessary for the next five years. Money spent in 2026 will not add supply until 2027, signaling the AI boom is not over.
Matt
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
30:15
Alibaba AI integration boosts ecosystem growth.
He says Alibaba linking its flagship online services to its AI plan is almost inevitable and should push more customers to buy more online purchases through the Alibaba ecosystem, likely boosting revenue and profit growth. The trend should build in 2026, though he warns to watch whether customers push back.
Investment banking upswing may be super cycle.
He says the upswing in capital markets activity can persist and there is a sense the market may be entering a super cycle of investment banking activity. Results from Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan reinforce a good outlook, pipelines are strong, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should give a positive narrative.
Credit card rate cap risks lender profitability.
He says a 10 percent credit card interest rate cap would not be a big driver for Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley, but for banks with credit card exposure it would have material and potentially devastating effects on profitability, forcing changes to business models, higher fees, and lower rewards. Management teams that have reported have been clear about the potential impact.
Prefer super regionals over universal banks.
He is not a bear on banks but is selective: super regionals have valuation support, have lagged considerably, and are pricing in a less favorable backdrop than universal banks, which he calls illogical. He likes all super regionals he covers and expects double-digit EPS growth, with buybacks and capital changes as tailwinds. He sees a favorable backdrop as already priced into universal banks, with possible profit-taking after results.
Prefer super regionals over universal banks.
He is not a bear on banks but is selective: super regionals have valuation support, have lagged considerably, and are pricing in a less favorable backdrop than universal banks, which he calls illogical. He likes all super regionals he covers and expects double-digit EPS growth, with buybacks and capital changes as tailwinds. He sees a favorable backdrop as already priced into universal banks, with possible profit-taking after results.
PNC positive outlook, 8% organic growth.
He is focused on PNC this quarter and expects a very positive outlook when it reports tomorrow, including about 8 percent organic growth in 2026 excluding an acquisition. He also sees buybacks increasing and capital changes as tailwinds, and expects double-digit EPS growth.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 15, 2026,
features Monica Defend, Will Kennedy, Charles, Matt, Saul Martinez
discussing TLT, Equities, U.S. Treasury curve steepener, Japanese government bond curve steepener, European government bond curve steepener, Eurozone Government Bonds, FXI, GLD, WTI, Container shipping rates, TSM, BABA, Investment banks, MS, GS, Credit card lenders, Universal banks, KRE, USB, TFC, PNC.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Monica Defend,
Will Kennedy,
Charles,
Matt,
Saul Martinez
· Tickers:
TLT,
Equities,
U.S. Treasury curve steepener,
Japanese government bond curve steepener,
European government bond curve steepener,
Eurozone Government Bonds,
FXI,
GLD,
WTI,
Container shipping rates,
TSM,
BABA,
Investment banks,
MS,
GS,
Credit card lenders,
Universal banks,
KRE,
USB,
TFC,
PNC
