Monica Defend 5.0 3 ideas

Monica Defend states Amundi maintains conviction on the Industrials sector because of the AI tech revolution that will continue over time. The AI investment cycle requires significant physical infrastructure (e.g., manufacturing equipment, electrical systems, construction) which benefits industrial companies. This is a secular trend separate from near-term geopolitical shocks. Despite a tactically neutral overall stance, they see a long-term, structural growth driver in Industrials linked to AI capital expenditure, warranting a LONG positioning. A severe economic downturn that halts or significantly delays global AI capex spending.

Monica Defend says Amundi remains "convinced on Europe" as a long-term constructive position within their portfolio. This conviction appears to be strategic, looking through current geopolitical and inflation shocks to longer-term valuation or growth prospects in the region. Europe is identified as a region where they maintain a positive, LONG-term investment view despite near-term headwinds. A protracted energy crisis or a deeper-than-expected regional economic slump stemming from the war's aftermath.

Defend states Amundi retains a long-term constructive position on Emerging Markets (EM), with a current favorite in Latin America and Eastern Europe, while moving neutral on Asia (India, China). EM assets may offer value and growth potential. The preference for LatAm and Eastern Europe suggests a view that these regions are relatively insulated or attractive compared to Asia, which is more exposed to the current oil shock. EM is seen as a LONG-term allocation, with tactical preferences within the complex based on current risk exposures. A sharp, sustained rise in the USD or a global recession that disproportionately impacts emerging economies.