Ideas
S&P 500 heads toward 7,500 next year.
Adam expects the S&P 500 to rise to roughly 7,500 next year as a base case. He argues the Fed is cutting rates despite inflation staying above 3%, AI capex remains robust from mega-cap tech, post-cut history with the S&P at record highs has been positive (average ~15% one-year gain), and a deregulatory/supportive administration plus retail/institutional flows create a powerful momentum backdrop. Near-term drawdowns of 5-10% are possible but should be bought rather than derailing the bull market.
AI revolution still has room to run.
Adam believes the AI boom is still in its early innings and has substantial room to run, comparing it to the internet bubble where the technology outlasted the equity mania. He says AI capex remains robust, large-cap AI leaders have proven revenue/operating metrics, and even if parts of the sector are speculative, investors could have traded the trend for years; Nvidia could become the first $10 trillion company.
Mega-cap tech leaders remain a bullish holding.
With the top 10 stocks at a record 41% of the S&P 500 and tech effectively driving the market, Adam remains bullish on the mega-cap tech cohort as a whole. He names Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft as companies evolving the global technology/business landscape and at the forefront of AI; concentration is a risk to monitor but not a reason to be bearish on these leaders.
Gold is heading above $4,000.
Adam has been long gold and now sees it heading above $4,000, following his prior $3,500 call. He expects a pullback is possible because gold has run hard, but the bigger driver is Fed easing into above-3% inflation and continued investor search for yield; gold is also viewed as a lower-beta hedge relative to Bitcoin.
Oil offers opportunities but remains range-bound.
Adam sees oil as a tradable but currently neutral/opportunistic market around $65. The Trump administration wants oil below $60, while inflation and dollar dynamics can support higher oil prices; he was short, then long, and recently closed longs. He expects opportunities in oil markets rather than a clean sustained directional trend.
Bitcoin may hit $150,000 by year-end.
Adam expects Bitcoin to remain very strong and make more record highs, with a possible $150,000 by year-end. The thesis is tied to Fed rate cuts, inflation staying above 2%, and investors continuing to search for yield in both risky and safe-haven assets.
Avoid Treasuries; yields likely stay elevated.
Adam is not chasing the bond rally after the 10-year yield fell toward 4%. He argues deficits are out of control—2025 YTD deficit at $2 trillion, monthly deficits near $300 billion, tariff revenue less than 10% of the deficit—so the Treasury market is flooded with supply while inflation remains high. Yields may fall a little, but not to 2-3%, making long Treasuries unattractive.
Nvidia could become first $10 trillion company.
Adam is bullish on Nvidia as a core AI leader. He argues it could become the world's first $10 trillion company, and its forward multiples are actually falling as the stock rises because operating metrics are growing so rapidly; this supports the view that large-cap AI leaders are not as speculative as bubble calls suggest.
Small-cap AI names look overhyped.
Adam distinguishes large-cap AI leaders, which are supported by proven revenue and operating metrics, from smaller/niche AI names, which he says are overhyped and may resemble a bubble. He warns that even if the broad AI bubble can run further, speculative small-cap AI is the riskier part of the theme.
US home prices will rise further.
Adam expects higher US home prices over the next year because mortgage rates are falling modestly, which should revive demand, while supply remains structurally tight. Existing homeowners are locked into low sub-4% mortgages and won't sell, builders are the main source of new supply, and there is no 2008-style foreclosure shock. Rates won't return to 3%, but lower rates should be enough to push prices higher.
This The David Lin Report video, published September 26, 2025,
features KobeissiLetter
discussing SPY, AI-SECTOR, MAGS, GLD, WTI, BTC, TLT, NVDA, Small-cap AI stocks, US home prices.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
KobeissiLetter
· Tickers:
SPY,
AI-SECTOR,
MAGS,
GLD,
WTI,
BTC,
TLT,
NVDA,
Small-cap AI stocks,
US home prices
