Labor Market Collapse? What Trump's New Policies Mean For Jobs | Steven Camarota

Summary

Steven Camarota of the Center for Immigration Studies joins David Lin to discuss the Trump administration's new $100,000 H-1B visa fee and broader immigration changes. Camarota argues that the H-1B program is oversubscribed and often used to lower tech wages, while also saying the data show a 2.2 million decline in the foreign-born population. He expects less immigration to tighten low-skilled labor markets, raise bottom-end wages, and lower aggregate GDP and job growth in the short term without necessarily reducing per capita GDP. The discussion also covers the gold card, birthright citizenship, and how AI could complicate future immigration policy.

• New H-1B policy imposes a $100,000 one-time fee, making the visa program less attractive for employers.
• Camarota says H-1B is concentrated in computer and engineering roles and has sometimes been used to undercut U.S. wages.
• His research points to a 2.2 million drop in the foreign-born population from January to July 2025, mostly illegal immigrants.
• He expects reduced immigration to tighten low-skilled labor markets and raise wages at the bottom end.
• He also expects lower aggregate GDP and job growth short term, but not necessarily lower per-capita GDP.
• The interview covers the $1 million gold card investor visa and debate over birthright citizenship.
• AI could reduce lower-end jobs, making large-scale immigration harder to reverse later.