Ideas
Treasuries lose safe-haven status.
Willem warns US Treasuries are losing their safe-haven role. In April 2025 investors did not flee to bonds and the dollar during market stress, foreign countries have stopped buying Treasuries, the US must refinance over $9 trillion and runs large deficits, and a failed auction or rising long-end yields could trigger a sovereign debt crisis. Central banks may ultimately buy bonds again, implying further currency debasement.
Dollar debasement drives structural weakness.
Willem argues the dollar is in a structural downtrend as the dollar-based system cracks. DXY fell 13% under Trump, foreign central banks are shifting from Treasuries to gold, the dollar has been weaponized, fiscal deficits and Fed pressure hurt trust, and buying gold is described as the anti-dollar trade. Debasement of the dollar and other fiat currencies continues.
Gold keeps rising on monetary reset.
Willem expects gold to continue higher because the dollar-based monetary system is cracking: the dollar is weak, investors no longer flee to Treasuries, central banks have become net buyers and bought over 1,000 tons annually for three years, foreign central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996, and gold is the last man standing. He allows a technical correction but says it should hold north of $3,000 and then continue higher in a multi-year commodity bull market.
Commodity supercycle is just starting.
Willem sees a multi-year, possibly decades-long commodity bull market driven by deglobalization, financial and economic World War III, weaponization of commodities, currency debasement, higher inflation, and shortages from underinvestment and insufficient discoveries. Commodities are becoming a geopolitical weapon, and the West's need to build its own supply chain supports higher prices.
Listed stocks hedge currency debasement.
Willem says when investors see relentless currency debasement they move into real assets, including listed stocks, which cannot be printed by governments. In Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela listed stocks became safe havens, explaining why stocks keep going up even as the economy cracks. This is a flight out of paper money and bonds.
Bitcoin is modern virtual gold.
Willem treats Bitcoin as virtual or digital gold and as portable, 24/7-tradable hard money. He has changed his model allocation so the cash sleeve can include Bitcoin, his fund owns some Bitcoin because it sees where this ship is heading, and he recommends digital assets as diversification for investors with more money.
Critical minerals are hard to monetize.
Willem cautions that critical and specialty minerals get too much publicity because most markets are very small and hard for investors to monetize, even though they have become geopolitical weapons and China controls 80-90% of many specialty metals. He sees government interest but not an easy public-market investment.
Copper deficit and weaponization drive breakout.
Willem is bullish copper because it is almost a monetary metal and a key geopolitical battlefield; China is storing copper, Western decoupling requires new supply, and production deficits are expected next year. Copper is on the verge of a breakout within the broader commodity bull market.
Junior miners offer discovery-driven upside.
Willem's fund focuses on junior mining and discovery companies because the world is entering an era of metal shortages and insufficient new discoveries. These small companies making big gold, silver, or uranium discoveries can create large value, and institutional money that previously relied on China may now be forced into Western mining supply.
Uranium deficits support long-term breakout.
Willem likes uranium because it is the only fuel for nuclear reactors and faces production deficits for years to come, with the market on the verge of a breakout. This is part of his broader commodity shortage thesis.
Battery metals benefit from EV demand.
Willem includes nickel and lithium in the commodity bull market because they are important battery metals for the EV revolution and batteries; nickel is also a high-grade war metal. He sees demand and the need for Western mining discoveries supporting these metals.
Monetary metals fund includes platinum/palladium.
Willem says his fund concentrates on monetary metals, with half its investments in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. He frames platinum and palladium as part of the hard-asset and monetary-metal allocation even though those markets are very small.
Silver shortages could drive massive spike.
Willem calls silver the most undervalued asset in the commodity space. It has not made new all-time highs after inflation, industrial demand consumes 60-70% and is rising while world production falls, shortages are guaranteed, and the silver market is tiny. Once investors recognize the physical shortage, demand could spike and silver could go to $100 in a week and hundreds of dollars over 5-10 years.
Western miners benefit from onshoring.
Willem expects Western-based mining companies, especially those making discoveries in the US or Nordics, to benefit greatly from decoupling from China and Trump administration efforts to cut red tape and open mines. This is a long-term trend as Europe and the West seek independent military and industrial supply chains.
EU rules threaten German autos.
Willem believes the German car industry cannot survive the EU's 2035 ban on combustion-engine cars and that harsh Brussels environmental regulation is already forcing German manufacturers to revolt. With over 10% of Germans employed in the auto industry, this is a major structural threat to the sector.
Miners are undervalued as margins expand.
Willem is bullish precious-metals miners because the gold breakout improves producer margins, yet valuations remain low: Newmont and Barrick trade around 10-12x earnings, the whole mining industry is cheap versus Nvidia and other high-tech stocks, reserves and production are falling, and capital rotation into gold miners is just beginning. He says his fund is up almost 50% year to date and 'you ain't seen nothing yet.'
This The David Lin Report video, published September 23, 2025,
features Willem Middelkoop
discussing TLT, USD, DXY, GLD, DBC, Listed stocks, BTC, REMX, COPPER, GDXJ, Commodity Discovery Fund, URA, NICKEL, LITHIUM, PPLT, PALL, SILVER, US/Nordic mining companies, Western mining companies, German auto industry, GDX, XLB, NEM, B.
16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Willem Middelkoop
· Tickers:
TLT,
USD,
DXY,
GLD,
DBC,
Listed stocks,
BTC,
REMX,
COPPER,
GDXJ,
Commodity Discovery Fund,
URA,
NICKEL,
LITHIUM,
PPLT,
PALL,
SILVER,
US/Nordic mining companies,
Western mining companies,
German auto industry,
GDX,
XLB,
NEM,
B
