Ideas
Long REMX basket hedged with put
The rare earth choke point is midstream separation and magnet production, which China dominates, so the strategic supply-chain trade is not simple commodity beta. Express it through the REMX rare earth and strategic metals basket rather than trying to pick a single winner. Because REMX is already up about 20% year-to-date, pair long REMX shares with a short-dated downside put—the March 20, 2026 $84 put, roughly 10% out of the money at about $3.28 or just over 3% of spot—to dampen near-term downside volatility while keeping upside.
Bullish stocks until Trump pendulum reverses
The Trump perceptual pendulum has swung from tariff and Greenland confrontation toward no-tariff deal optimism, which should keep the stock-market rally going until the pendulum swings back. Breadth is widening, the equal-weight S&P 500 is near a 52-week high, small caps are making fresh highs, and the market has not broken key levels, so retesting highs remains on the table even though MAG7 leadership is a drag.
Equal-weight S&P 500 poised to break out
Equal-weight S&P 500 is trading right along its 52-week high and looks like it wants to break out, evidence of broadening market breadth rather than narrow leadership.
Small caps outperform with fresh highs
The small-cap sector is showing material outperformance and continues to make fresh 52-week highs, supporting the case for broad market participation and further upside.
MAG7 drag as leadership breaks down
MAG7 leadership stocks remain a substantial drag on the S&P 500 and are breaking to lower lows, so the index's strength is coming from rotation rather than mega-cap leadership.
Financials buyable on dip if trend holds
Financial stocks have started to break down after earnings misses, but they have not yet violated technical support; they could still be bought on a dip and remain in their primary uptrend if that holds.
Dollar trapped in 98-99 fair-value range
The dollar's rally was driven by Trump geopolitical headlines and has retraced as those tensions eased; DXY is back in a 98-99 fair-value range with no clear directional trend, and headlines will determine the next leg.
Yen breaks down on JGB stress
The Japanese yen continues to break down while the JGB market remains under substantial stress, reinforcing yen weakness even as the broad dollar index is range-bound.
WTI needs 62.50 to confirm bull
WTI is struggling at the 200-day moving average around 60.49 and needs a move above 62.50 to confirm the bull move. As geopolitics calm, downside retrace risk toward $59 and then $55 is increasing, so headlines will drive the next move.
Oil constructive but must clear 200-day
Oil stopped going down on bad news and has held above its 50-day moving average through the consolidation, so the price action is constructive; watch closely for a bullish continuation, though the 200-day still needs to be cleared.
Gold bull intact; gap-fill pullback possible
Gold's fresh all-time high activated measured-move targets to 4,900-5,100, and the bull market remains intact. However, a large $23-wide unfilled gap at 4,600 sits about $250 below the market, and calming geopolitics could trigger a pullback to fill that gap before gold moves higher.
Collar GLD longs to lock gains
With gold short-term overbought and a tactical high likely, existing long gold investors can collar GLD—buy a put about 5% below the market and sell a covered call about 10% higher, with March expiry—for about $1.50 per share to reduce delta exposure and lock in gains while retaining upside.
Replace GLD LEAPs with bull call spreads
For investors willing to tactically sell down gold, GLD LEAPs that are up several hundred percent and now near delta 1 can be profit-taken and replaced with bull call spreads, restoring convexity and asymmetry instead of holding gold in a delta-1 manner at this stage.
Uranium bull intact; wait to chase
Uranium and uranium miners are in a brisk bull market, helped by Trump reaffirming the nuclear renaissance at Davos. The move is extended enough to invite a vicious pullback, so new money should wait for a pullback rather than chase, but the bullish trend still has a long way to run.
Uranium breakout has room to run
Uranium U308 futures have broken out to a 52-week high and uranium equities have also broken out; uranium is working and is not as overbought as gold or gold miners, leaving room to run.
Copper may pause before buyable dip
Copper has gotten heavy at the $6 level, with two failed attempts to close above it, and after a fast run from $5 to $6 in two months it may pause or revert to its 50-day moving average. Long-term fundamentals remain strong, so a pullback would be a new tactical buy-on-dip opportunity.
10-year yields sticky at higher levels
The 10-year Treasury market had been quiet but yields spiked above 4.20% and reached 4.30%, longer-duration yields reacted negatively, and yields have stayed sticky at those higher levels even as stocks recovered, keeping the rates setup important to watch.
This Macro Voices video, published January 22, 2026,
features Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend
discussing REMX, SPY, RSP, US Small Caps, MAG7, XLF, DXY, FXY, WTI, GLD, GLD bull call spreads, URA, COPPER, IEF.
17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Patrick Ceresna,
Erik Townsend
· Tickers:
REMX,
SPY,
RSP,
US Small Caps,
MAG7,
XLF,
DXY,
FXY,
WTI,
GLD,
GLD bull call spreads,
URA,
COPPER,
IEF
