MacroVoices #516 Craig Tindale: Critical Materials, A Strategic Analysis
Speakers
Craig Tindale
— Private investor and author
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Erik Townsend
— Founder & Host, MacroVoices
Summary
MacroVoices #516 features Craig Tindale discussing his viral critical-materials analysis. He argues China dominates midstream refining and separation for rare earths and many critical metals, leaving the West strategically vulnerable and making scarcity, not reshoring, the key investment theme. The postgame covers Patrick Ceresna's rare-earth REMX hedged trade and the hosts' technical views on stocks, dollar, oil, gold, uranium, copper, and Treasuries.
- Craig Tindale warns China controls 50-98% of critical-metals midstream refining, separation, and magnet production.
- He sees silver as structurally undersupplied and increasingly strategic for electrification and AI/defense.
- Specific critical-materials names discussed include MTM, IPX/IperionX, UCU/Ucore, and Lionus Metals.
- Patrick Ceresna structures a rare-earth trade as a hedged long in REMX.
- Postgame equities view: S&P 500 bullish near term, small caps and equal-weight strong, MAG7 a drag.
- Dollar and oil are range/setup watches; gold is a long-term bull with short-term pullback risk.
- Uranium is breaking out and less overbought than gold; copper is long-term bullish but tactically extended.
- 10-year Treasury yields are sticky higher and worth watching.
Ideas
Ucore Louisiana rare-earth refining funded and starting
Ucore/UCU has received roughly $100 million to develop rare-earth capacity in Louisiana and has entered initial production. Its closed-loop system avoids heavy rare-earth pollution and has lower-cost throughput than the old metric, making it a Western rare-earth reshoring winner.
IperionX titanium cost breakthrough with DoD funding
IperionX/IPX is producing titanium in Virginia using a University of Utah process that can make titanium powders at about 80% less cost. It has received roughly $115 million from the Department of Defense to scale titanium capabilities, and Craig says it has virtually reached commercialization. Titanium is critical to F-35s and defense supply chains.
China copper control warns against simple long
China is weaponizing copper pricing by running copper smelting at negative cost, which undermines Western refiners. Even though copper demand is rising for AI data centers and electrification, investors should not assume that demand automatically pushes copper prices higher, because China controls much of the supply chain and can lower its own costs while raising Western costs.
Silver deficit and China control drive upside
Silver is in a multi-year structural deficit of about 5,000 tons per year and 24,000 tons since 2020. China controls roughly 60% of silver supply as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead refining, and new licensing could cut off Western supply, potentially doubling the deficit. Because silver is essential to electrification, AI data centers, missiles, and robotics, demand is relatively price-insensitive and supply would have to come from vaults or scrap, which should drive prices much higher.
Lionus Texas rare-earth refining project advancing
Lionus Metals is building a rare-earth refining project in Texas. It had ESG/permitting problems, but those obstacles are now being removed and the project is going forward, though it still depends on Chinese machinery. It is a watch-list reshoring play rather than a clean current buy.
China midstream choke makes critical materials scarce
China controls 50-98% of critical-metals midstream refining, separation, and magnet production, while the West would need trillions and many years to reshore. The investable opportunity is not the reshoring itself but scarcity and the Western state-backed critical-materials supply chain, especially companies receiving Department of War/Energy and allied government funding.
Owns MTM for critical-metals recycling upside
MTM is one of the Western critical-materials companies using flash joule heating and chlorination to process e-waste and fly ash into metals, including gold and silver. Craig says he bought at about 8 cents, the stock is near $1, and he would not be surprised if it eventually reaches $50, making it a high-upside circular-economy play.
REMX hedged long for rare-earth scarcity
The rare-earth choke point is midstream separation and magnet production, not mining, so Patrick expresses the theme through a basket, REMX, rather than picking a single winner. Because REMX is already up about 20% year-to-date, he would own REMX shares and pair them with a March 20, 2026 $84 put, about 10% out of the money and around $3.28, to dampen near-term downside while keeping upside.
Bullish stocks until Trump pendulum reverses
The Trump perceptual pendulum has swung back to a risk-on mode after Davos/Greenland headlines, and Erik thinks that is bullish for the stock market until the pendulum swings the other way. The key question is whether the rally delivers a new all-time high or forms a topping pattern, which should be clear within a week or two.
Equal-weight S&P breakout on breadth
The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading right along its 52-week high and looks like it wants to break out, confirming that market breadth is widening despite weakness in the largest leaders.
Small caps outperform on market rotation
Small caps are showing material outperformance and continue to make fresh 52-week highs, which Patrick views as part of healthy sector rotation and market accumulation rather than broad selling.
MAG7 leadership breaks down; avoid
The MAG7 remain a substantial drag on the S&P 500 and are breaking to lower lows as leadership stocks lag. Patrick treats this as a reason to avoid or underweight the mega-cap leadership complex while the broader market rotates.
Financials watch dip after earnings misses
Financial stocks have started to break down after earnings misses, but they have not yet violated key technical levels. Patrick says they could still be bought on a dip and remain in primary trend, so this is a watch rather than a confirmed sell signal.
Dollar range-bound; watch headlines for direction
The US dollar has retraced its geopolitical rally, but the breakdown was mainly euro-driven and other crosses are not moving meaningfully. Patrick sees the 98-99 DXY area as fair value and wants to stay neutral until the dollar breaks out of its consolidation range.
WTI needs breakout above 62.50
WTI is struggling at its 200-day moving average around 60.49, and it needs to clear 62.50 to confirm a bull move. With geopolitics calming, Patrick sees increasing risk of a downside retrace toward $59 and then $55, so he would watch rather than chase.
Gold bull intact but pullback likely
Gold's long-term bull market remains intact and measured-move targets from the fresh all-time high point to 4,900-5,100. However, there is a large unfilled gap at 4,600, about $250 below the market, so Erik expects a possible sharp pullback to fill that gap before gold moves higher. He would hedge existing longs rather than abandon the bull market.
GLD collar protects gold longs from pullback
Patrick agrees gold is in a long-term bull market but sees a short-term tactical high and consolidation risk after a parabolic move toward $5,000. For existing longs, he recommends a GLD collar—hedge about 5% below the market and sell a covered call about 10% higher into March for about $1.50 per share—or taking profits on GLD LEAPs and replacing them with bull call spreads to restore convexity.
Uranium bull run continues after nuclear catalyst
Uranium and uranium miners are in a brisk bull market, helped by Trump reaffirming the nuclear renaissance at Davos. Erik warns that the rally may invite a vicious pullback, but he is convinced it has a long way to run, so new money should wait for a pullback rather than chase.
Uranium breakout has room to run
Uranium U308 futures have broken out to a new 52-week high, establishing a new trend, and uranium equities have also broken out. Unlike gold and gold miners, uranium is not as overbought, so Patrick sees room for the move to continue.
Copper long-term bullish; wait for dip
Copper's long-term fundamentals remain strong, but after a rapid run from $5 to $6 in two months it has become heavy near $6 and failed twice to close above that level. Patrick expects a pause or reversion toward the 50-day moving average, which would create a new tactical buy-on-dip opportunity.
Treasury yields sticky higher; watch duration
The 10-year Treasury yield has woken up, spiking above 4.20% and reaching 4.30%, and longer-duration yields have reacted negatively. Yields are staying sticky at higher levels even as stocks recover, so Erik treats this as a rate setup worth watching.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published January 22, 2026, features Craig Tindale, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend discussing UCU.V, IPX, COPPER, SILVER, Lionus Metals, SETM, REMX, MTM, SPY, SP:SPXEW, IWM, MAG7, XLF, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA, Uranium Equities, IEF. 21 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Craig Tindale, Patrick Ceresna, Erik Townsend · Tickers: UCU.V, IPX, COPPER, SILVER, Lionus Metals, SETM, REMX, MTM, SPY, SP:SPXEW, IWM, MAG7, XLF, DXY, WTI, GLD, URA, Uranium Equities, IEF