MacroVoices #545 Michael Howell: Warsh vs. The Markets
Спикеры
Michael Howell
— Основатель, CrossBorder Capital
Patrick Ceresna
— Специалист по деривативам, MacroVoices
Masel Begnan
— Market Strategist, BigPicture Trading
Erik Townsend
— Основатель и ведущий, MacroVoices
Michael Howell lays out his global liquidity framework, arguing that advanced-economy liquidity has peaked and the next phase favors higher policy rates, rising bond yields, commodities, gold, and defensive positioning over equities and risk assets, while crypto and the yen face pressure. Patrick Ceresna then translates the bullish gold follow-through into a GLD bull call spread, and the market desk reviews near-term setups in equities, oil, the dollar/yen, uranium, and wheat.
- The advanced-economy global liquidity cycle peaked at end-2025 and Howell expects the downswing to last into 2027.
- Howell expects the Fed to hike rather than cut, with front-end and long-end Treasury yields rising.
- Gold is a high-conviction long, driven by PBOC liquidity expansion and China's domestic debt debasement.
- Commodities, especially energy and oil, are favored by strong real-economy growth and likely Chinese stimulus.
- Crypto is seen under pressure as Fed and global liquidity fade.
- Patrick Ceresna structures a defined-risk GLD 410/450 October bull call spread.
- The market desk notes short-term S&P 500 strength, elevated oil, and watch setups in USD/JPY, uranium, and wheat.
Идеи
Liquidity downswing; reduce equity beta risk.
The advanced-economy global liquidity cycle peaked at the end of 2025 and its growth rate is now rolling over because strong real economies are draining liquidity from financial markets. This is the phase where central-bank tightening is still ahead, risk assets are vulnerable, and investors should scale back equity beta and move more defensively; he cites the 2021-2022 analog when the S&P 500 dropped 25%.
Rates must rise; short Treasury notes.
Central banks do not control interest rates; markets do. Rising bond yields are a global phenomenon driven by strong nominal GDP, and the 2-year Treasury note has broken above SOFR and predicts higher policy rates. He expects the Fed to hike, not cut, and sees the 10-year Treasury yield potentially testing 6%.
Commodities up on strong economy and China.
Strong western growth and a likely further Chinese stimulus are fueling commodity demand. The liquidity-cycle phase between the peak in liquidity and the peak in the real economy historically supports commodity markets, with industrial metals already outperforming gold and more room to go.
Precious metals turn; gold and silver rally.
Gold's correction is over because China is turning on the PBOC liquidity taps again. China needs to devalue its debt domestically, and that internal yuan devaluation is expressed through a much higher gold price. The yuan gold price bottomed at its 27,000 trend line, Shanghai is now the marginal gold pricer, and silver is starting to outperform as high-beta confirmation.
Crypto under cloud as Fed liquidity fades.
Crypto is much more attuned to global and Fed liquidity than to PBOC liquidity. With global liquidity fading and the Federal Reserve under pressure to tighten, crypto is under a cloud and gold has been outperforming; he expects that relative dynamic to continue over the near term.
Gold-oil ratio implies much higher oil.
The gold-oil ratio is strongly mean-reverting and has spiked again, implying oil must catch up. If gold is anchored near $4,000 and the long-run gold-oil ratio is 20-30x, oil could reach $135-$200. Energy is late in the commodity cycle, and he is very invested in energy stocks and expects oil prices to rise significantly.
Front-end funding may weaken dollar.
If the US Treasury is pushed to fund more at the front end and the bill share of federal debt approaches 30%, that would be significant and very bad for the US dollar, while also causing gold to shoot up. This is a conditional funding-policy setup to monitor.
Yen selloff persists until BOJ tightens.
Japan is reluctant to raise short-term rates even though the 10-year JGB is catching up to nominal GDP growth above 4%. That short-end funding and monetization causes a yen sell-off, and the sell-off is likely to continue until Japanese authorities genuinely tighten monetary conditions.
USD/JPY at inflection after intervention.
The US dollar is structurally in a bull trend but has been mean reverting after large yen intervention. USD/JPY fell from 164 to 155 and has now retraced about 50%, creating an inflection point: if the dollar continues to weaken, the yen should rally; if not, the dip is bought.
Uranium producers may be turning higher.
Uranium futures had been dead for three months, flatlining around $85-$87, but are now upticking. URA, the uranium producers basket, rallied about 25% trough to peak in two weeks and reclaimed its 50-day moving average, potentially marking the first turn toward a new accumulation cycle.
Wheat short-covering risk on Russian supply.
Large speculators built fresh wheat shorts just before the latest Black Sea escalation. Russia controls 22% of global wheat exports, and attacks on Russian grain infrastructure raise physical supply risk; if the situation worsens, those new shorts may be forced to cover, supporting wheat prices.
Далее
This Macro Voices video, published August 13, 2026, features Michael Howell, Masel Begnan, Patrick Ceresna discussing SPY, SHY, IEF, DBC, DBB, SILVER, GLD, BTC, WTI, XLE, USD, FXY, USD/JPY, URA, WEAT. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Howell, Masel Begnan, Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: SPY, SHY, IEF, DBC, DBB, SILVER, GLD, BTC, WTI, XLE, USD, FXY, USD/JPY, URA, WEAT