Inflation Softens, Nvidia's $500B Plan | Real Yield 8/13/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 13, 2026 at 20:33 | 42:12 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Matt Wrzesniewsky — Head of Fixed Income Client Portfolio Management, Vanguard

Gargi Chaudhuri — Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock

Anya Andrianova — Bloomberg Reporter

James Crombie — Senior Editor for Credit, Bloomberg News

Tony Rodriguez — Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Nuveen

Jerry Cudzil — Generalist Portfolio Manager, TCW

Ira Jersey — Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist

Amanda Lyman — Goldman Sachs

Michael McKee — International Economics & Policy Correspondent, Bloomberg

Laura Nahmias — Reporter, Bloomberg

Maranda Davis — Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode examines cooling US inflation and its implications for Fed policy. Guests argue that higher real and intermediate Treasury yields offer attractive income cushions while long-end Treasuries face fiscal and supply risks. The credit roundtable focuses on rising hyperscaler AI issuance and CCC stress, and Nvidia's $500 billion financing plan raises repricing questions. Japan's BOJ-yen setup and municipal policy issues are also discussed.

US CPI and PPI cool, but Fed officials remain split on inflation.
Real yields and intermediate Treasuries are highlighted as attractive income opportunities.
Heavy hyperscaler investment-grade issuance is expected to pressure credit spreads.
Nvidia's $500 billion AI financing plan raises questions about credit repricing.
Japan's BOJ may need to hike to support the yen, with risk to JGBs.
CCC-rated high yield shows stress, particularly in software and cable.
The 30-year Treasury auction faces fiscal deficit and global demand concerns.
Municipal policy issues include NYC's pied-a-terre tax and data center moratoriums.

Ideas

Matt Wrzesniewsky Head of Fixed Income Client Portfolio Management, Vanguard 8:22

Buy fixed income for attractive yields

The jump in yields gives investors another bite at the apple because high-quality bond yields are high relative to history and real yields are at their most attractive level since the global financial crisis. The coupon cushion is large enough that rates can rise substantially before investors lose money, so fixed income and credit offer an enduring income opportunity versus staying in cash.

Gargi Chaudhuri Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock 9:14

Intermediate Treasuries offer strong carry cushion

Real yields above 3% and intermediate Treasury yields near 5% provide carry that protects investors even if rates rise modestly. Global investors are increasingly buying products that give access to real yields and intermediate Treasuries because the income cushion is attractive relative to history.

Gargi Chaudhuri Head of iShares Investment Strategy, BlackRock 13:19

Prefer 7-10 year Treasuries over long end

With continued hyperscaler debt issuance expected, the yield curve can keep steepening and the long end faces supply and fiscal risks. Investors should stay in the belly of the curve, especially the 7-10 year part, where the carry cushion is strongest, and beware of the long end.

Anya Andrianova Bloomberg Reporter 16:12

BOJ hike would support yen, pressure JGBs

Japan's intervention bought time but only a BOJ rate hike can support the yen. If the BOJ hikes in September and signals more, that would support the currency, while JGB yields would face upward pressure, creating a delicate choice for the BOJ between supporting the yen and protecting the bond market.

James Crombie Senior Editor for Credit, Bloomberg News 20:34

AI credit debt needs cheaper pricing

AI-related borrowers will issue large amounts of debt across public and private markets, but debt will need to be repriced cheaper to attract long-term buy-and-hold investors, similar to SpaceX. AI credit is therefore a developing repricing story with uncertainty around chip values and financing structures.

Tony Rodriguez Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Nuveen 23:35

Hyperscaler spreads to widen; stay selective

Hyperscaler investment-grade issuance is moving from private and structured markets into public IG and is set to increase significantly, which should keep pressure on spreads. He is being cautious on complex structures away from the very high quality hyperscalers while keeping dry powder for selective high-quality opportunities.

Jerry Cudzil Generalist Portfolio Manager, TCW 28:50

CCC high yield stress; avoid risky credits

High-yield spreads are historically tight near 270 basis points and are not enough compensation for volatility or loss. CCC-rated credits are showing pronounced underperformance, with real stress in areas like software, cable, and idiosyncratic names, signaling growing vulnerabilities under the surface.

Ira Jersey Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist 37:07

Long-end Treasuries face fiscal and demand headwinds

Long-end Treasury yields above 5% reflect persistent $1.5 trillion deficits and a shift in global demand because overseas investors now have alternatives such as hedged Japanese 30-year bonds. This fiscal and competitive supply backdrop makes the long end vulnerable entering the 30-year auction.

Ira Jersey Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist 39:47

Fed likely cuts 50-75 basis points

The Fed is not likely to hike again; after holding, the next move is likely a cut. Market inflation expectations imply reaching the 2% target by Q2 2027, and if job growth stays weak, the Fed may cut 50-75 basis points to stimulate the economy and avoid recession.

Up Next

Trading Desk - August 13th 2026

Macro Voices · Aug 13

Art Berman: The Global Energy Order Is Breaking

Wealthion · Aug 13

I Interviewed a North Korean Hacker Posing as a Crypto Dev

Unchained (Chopping Block) · Aug 13

Market Close: Stocks Higher, S&P 500 Hits New High, Inflation Lingers • 8/13/26

Ex-Goya COO on the $1.4 Trillion Family Business Opportunity in Three Consumer Sectors | Andy Unanue

Monetary Matters · Aug 13

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 13, 2026, features Matt Wrzesniewsky, Gargi Chaudhuri, Anya Andrianova, James Crombie, Tony Rodriguez, Jerry Cudzil, Ira Jersey discussing LQD, U.S. real yields, TLT, Intermediate U.S. Treasuries, 7-10 year U.S. Treasuries, FXY, JGBUX, AI-related corporate credit, Hyperscaler investment-grade credit, CCC-rated high yield bonds, 30-year U.S. Treasuries, U.S. front-end interest rates. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Matt Wrzesniewsky, Gargi Chaudhuri, Anya Andrianova, James Crombie, Tony Rodriguez, Jerry Cudzil, Ira Jersey · Tickers: LQD, U.S. real yields, TLT, Intermediate U.S. Treasuries, 7-10 year U.S. Treasuries, FXY, JGBUX, AI-related corporate credit, Hyperscaler investment-grade credit, CCC-rated high yield bonds, 30-year U.S. Treasuries, U.S. front-end interest rates