TL TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Загрузка... EDV : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

Global bond yields have been rising due to resilient global growth and past policy accommodation, with real yields being the main driver. Going forward, yields can remain higher for longer, though falling oil prices may cause a near-term dip of a few basis points. Bond vigilantes are pushing long-end yields up to force the Fed to hike, but the market has priced in two to three rate rises, and there isn't a strong reason for aggressive hikes. Overall, yields are likely to stay elevated.

Author frames the Fed's FIMA repo facility as a routine tool to backstop Treasury market crises, citing Paulson, without taking a directional position.

Real returns on both corporate and government bonds will be zero or negative over the next several years, with likely price decreases, making bonds unattractive.

Stocks hit all-time highs on hopes of a Strait of Hormuz deal, with bonds climbing, oil falling below $80, and the Nasdaq 100 rising 3.3%.

Treasuries rose as oil prices fell on diplomatic progress in the Iran war, reducing expectations for more than one Fed rate hike this year.

TIPS and nominal long-term bonds are currently in a negative momentum state, signaling elevated risk. Elm Wealth is underweight these bonds and instead overweight treasury bills, waiting for interest rates and bond prices to stabilize before potentially re-entering.

Author outlines a macro framework favoring stocks and commodities over bonds due to cyclical inflation and an oil shock, but offers no explicit positions or trade calls.

Author notes copper's rise above $14,000 driven by AI demand but frames it as a market observation, not a personal position or trade call.

Oil prices rose and Treasuries fell as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated while the U.S. government moved to advance a stopgap funding bill.

The bond market has priced a high risk premium for uncertainties (geopolitics, Fed reaction, supply). Unless those risks fully materialize, there is positive skew for owning bonds, keeping yields in their existing range and offering upside.

Global bond market faces pressure as Japanese yields surge following a poorly received 10-year JGB auction.

Sticky energy prices limit the upside for bonds, especially in the US where there is a real rate story, and also in Europe. This means bond prices will struggle to rally, and yields will remain elevated.

The article says longer-term Treasury yields have climbed as investors demand greater inflation compensation and doubts the Fed can deliver 2% inflation; higher long-term yields imply lower prices for long-duration Treasuries. Risk: A flight-to-safety bid or sudden recession fears could push yields down and TLT up despite persistent inflation.

US Treasury yields, especially 10-year and 30-year, are set to decline. Treasury Secretary Bessent's FX intervention using the FIMA repo facility and the decision to lower the Treasury General Account to $850 billion (from $1 trillion consensus) are injecting liquidity and capping long-end yields. Falling yields are essential for big tech and memory stocks to recover, and the CDS premium for mega-cap tech has already started declining after the intervention.

Rising German real yields signal tighter global financing conditions, impacting bond markets and borrower costs without a direct trade call.

Risks for US Treasury yields remain skewed to the upside. Even without another oil price surge, rising AI capex spending is keeping prices elevated and growth resilient, putting sustained pressure on yields. The recent pullback in oil helped, but the underlying dynamic continues to push yields higher.

Author speculates on Bessent's motivation regarding Japan's FX tools and their potential reverberation into Treasuries, but offers no directional position.

The bond market reacted to the July FOMC with a steepening of the yield curve, signaling disbelief in the Fed's 2% inflation target. Long-term factors—including de-globalization, demographic shifts, and massive AI infrastructure capex—are pulling money into the real economy instead of financial markets, causing a structural shift from the low-inflation regime of 1990–2020 to a persistently higher inflation regime. As a result, long-term US Treasury yields will continue to rise, and bonds have lost their safe-asset appeal. Experts now see fair CPI around 3-3.5% and corresponding long-term bond yields of 3.5–4.5%, with risk of overshoot on shocks.

Structural inflation from deglobalization, AI capex, and demographic changes makes US long-term bonds unattractive as their appeal drops.

The author discusses the potential impact of Japan selling U.S. Treasury holdings to defend the yen as long-term yields reach multi-year highs.

Palantir jumped 14% in extended trading after raising revenue and income forecasts, Amazon fell 1.9% after Bezos filed to sell shares, and oil dropped on cooling Middle East tensions while Brent edged up to $84.10 after Trump's warning.

The author rhetorically questions bonds' role while quoting a post noting bonds diverged from equities, implying confusion rather than a directional call.

Avoid TLT/long-duration bonds: speaker argues yields are moving higher, inflation/oil pressure keeps bonds unattractive, and absent equity weakness there is no forcing function into bonds; bearish view but no explicit short/puts/actionable short call.

Stocks and bonds rallied as cooling Middle East tensions lowered oil prices and eased inflation worries, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% and Amazon's market value topping $3 trillion.

Bond yields and oil prices fall while big-tech stocks and Bitcoin rally as markets anticipate another Trump deal and Japanese intervention fades.

Bank of America strategist Mark Cabana says US Treasuries may resume their retreat if the Federal Reserve fails to improve communication on meeting its 2% inflation target.

Author argues rising rates and a stronger dollar threaten the UST market, explaining Bessent's intervention as a macro concern rather than a trade call.

The author suggests that an eight percent nominal GDP print will force market participants to choose between buying gold or selling bonds.

Japan may sell US Treasuries as part of its intervention, creating upward pressure on US interest rates and adding to the already concerning US debt situation; any factor pushing rates higher worries him.