Bloomberg Surveillance 8/25/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 25, 2026 at 15:48 | 2:24:14 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Kit Juckes — Macro Strategist, Société Générale

Lisa Shalett — Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Ted Mortonson — Senior Research Analyst, Baird

Meghan Swiber — Rates Strategist, Bank of America

Dan Suzuki — Investment Strategist, Schroders

Scott Kirby — CEO, United Airlines

Robert Sockin — Citi

Dan Greenhaus — Chief Strategist, ICAP

George Goncalves — Head of Research, Blockworks

Lt. Gen. Karen Gibson — Retired Lieutenant General, Academy Securities

Kate Kalutkiewicz — Former Trump White House Trade Official

Henrietta Treyz — Political Analyst, Veda Partners

Summary

Bloomberg Surveillance discusses bond market intervention pushback after Treasury Secretary Bessent's buyback plan, with guests debating fiscal and debasement risks and the Fed's path, alongside Iran sanctions and US-Canada trade escalation. The program also covers AI and tech positioning into NVIDIA earnings, led by bullish semiconductor and hyperscaler calls. United Airlines sees strong travel demand, while macro guests debate rate hikes and whether the economy is fine enough.

Treasury buyback plan faces criticism from Druckenmiller and others, with yields lower but debate over intervention, deficits, and bond vigilantes.
Iran sanctions strategy and China's role dominate geopolitics, with oil prices easing.
US-Canada tariff fight escalates on autos, with retaliation expected and political motivations discussed.
Markets look ahead to Jackson Hole, PCE, and NVIDIA earnings.
Baird and Morgan Stanley guests favor NVIDIA and hyperscalers while flagging fragile broader tech and small-cap valuations.
United Airlines announces its largest international expansion and says travel demand shows no cracks.
PGIM expects three Fed rate hikes, while Solus says the economy and risk assets look fine enough.

Ideas

Kit Juckes Macro Strategist, Société Générale 44:38

Weaker dollar favored over bond intervention

Treasury buyback intervention is less about fixing market disorder than signaling a desired weaker dollar; the dollar is overvalued on long-term fundamentals, and pushing the dollar down is preferable to rigging the Treasury market, supporting a stronger euro/weaker dollar stance.

Lisa Shalett Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 57:31

10-year rising threatens stock valuations

Equities have so far absorbed 4.5% 10-year Treasury yields, but if the 10-year pushes through 4.75% toward 5%, valuation multiples are likely to face a reckoning.

Lisa Shalett Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 58:21

Fragile small-cap and unprofitable tech valuations

The broader tech ecosystem, small-cap land, unprofitable tech, and some semiconductor makers have fragile valuations and are vulnerable after momentum and high-valuation parts of the market have already seen tough days.

Lisa Shalett Chief Investment Officer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management 59:48

Hyperscalers can withstand rising rates

Hyperscalers such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon deserve to be interest-rate insensitive because of rock-solid balance sheets and extraordinary cash flow generation; they can continue to grind up even if rates stay higher.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 77:17

NVIDIA earnings and demand strong

NVIDIA has pricing leverage and more demand than it can fulfill, with AI capex expected to rise roughly 40% to about $1.1 trillion next year; earnings should surprise the Street above consensus.

Ted Mortonson Senior Research Analyst, Baird 77:35

Reload long chip hardware

The AI buildout will require a large volume of components, and after mutual-fund sector rotation drove the SOX through its 100-day moving average, a snapback in semiconductor/chip hardware is likely; global sovereign AI builds have barely started.

Meghan Swiber Rates Strategist, Bank of America 89:29

Prefer long 30-year swap spreads

Rather than an outright long duration trade in long-end Treasuries, the better way to express the Treasury buyback/lower-long-end-rates view is long 30-year swap spreads or the 20-year part of the curve, as supply reduction should support that expression.

Dan Suzuki Investment Strategist, Schroders 102:54

Long-term yields stay higher longer

Bond vigilantes are back for the first time in decades because structural deficits, inflation, demographics, and AI-related capital supply are putting a floor under long-term yields; Treasury jawboning and buybacks are symbolic and temporary, leaving a higher-for-longer yield environment.

Scott Kirby CEO, United Airlines 112:08

Travel demand strong; United expanding

United sees no cracks in travel demand, with stable strength across business, leisure, premium and economy; its largest international expansion in history is being enabled by reliable hubs and aircraft deliveries, and it can offset elevated jet fuel costs with higher fares.

Robert Sockin Citi 130:44

Fed to hike three times

With real GDP growth running well above trend, inflation above 3% and unemployment near 4%, the Fed needs to cool pressures and will likely hike rates at least three times this year, starting in September; a skip would lower October odds and push the path further out.

Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 139:55

Risk assets attractive as economy fine

The economy is fine enough: growth around 1.5-2%, labor market holding, consumer spending okay, broad stock market participation and tight credit spreads; the AI story remains dominant and rate-independent, so risk assets can continue to provide opportunities.

Up Next

Perplexity and Nvidia partner for local-first AI platform

JPMorgan's Kevin Curtin on AI backlash: There's always risk with financing infrastructure projects

MARKET OPEN: BITCOIN BREAKS $80K, NVDA Earnings TOMORROW, Anthropic is in TROUBLE

Thread Guy · Aug 25

Why Trend Following Feels Wrong (But Could Boost Your Portfolio)

Meb Faber Show · Aug 25

Opening Bell: August 25, 2026

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 25, 2026, features Kit Juckes, Lisa Shalett, Ted Mortonson, Meghan Swiber, Dan Suzuki, Scott Kirby, Robert Sockin, Dan Greenhaus discussing EUR/USD, US10Y, Small-cap technology stocks, Unprofitable technology stocks, SMH, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, SOXX, US 30-year swap spreads, TLT, UAL, SHY, SPY. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kit Juckes, Lisa Shalett, Ted Mortonson, Meghan Swiber, Dan Suzuki, Scott Kirby, Robert Sockin, Dan Greenhaus · Tickers: EUR/USD, US10Y, Small-cap technology stocks, Unprofitable technology stocks, SMH, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, SOXX, US 30-year swap spreads, TLT, UAL, SHY, SPY