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19:11
Apr 03
Apr 03
CEG
VST
NEE
D
ETN
▾
Speaker calls Constellation Energy the largest nuclear plant operator in the US with an insurmountable "protective moat" (permits, personnel, lack of competitors). It signed a historic 20-year, $16B contract with Microsoft and can bypass the 5-year grid connection queue. Nuclear power is the "gold standard" for providing 24/7, emission-free baseload power to energy-hungry data centers. CEG's exclusive assets and contracts position it to capture the structural growth in electricity demand. LONG due to its monopoly-like position in nuclear generation, direct contracts with hyperscalers, and ability to benefit from rising power prices. The entire sector could sell off in a broad market recession.
CEG LONG
Speaker identifies Vistra as the largest unregulated power producer in the US, operating in liberalized markets (PJM, ERCOT). It owns a large fleet of gas and nuclear assets and has long-term contracts with Amazon and Meta. As an unregulated producer, VST directly benefits from price spikes in electricity caused by AI-driven demand. It has flexibility to manage peak loads and can pass on cost increases. LONG because its business model allows it to fully capitalize on rising and volatile power prices driven by data center demand. Exposure to potential regulatory changes or a sharp economic downturn reducing energy demand.
VST LONG
Speaker highlights NextEra Energy's scale and dominance in *transmitting* energy via its subsidiary NextEra Energy Transmission. It has expertise in overcoming regulatory barriers for interstate power lines and a partnership with Google Cloud to use AI for grid optimization. The crisis is as much about grid capacity as generation. NEE controls critical transmission infrastructure, which is in severe shortage and has a multi-year development backlog, giving it pricing power. LONG due to its monopoly-like position in a scarce, essential service (power transmission) required for AI expansion. Execution delays in building new transmission lines or adverse regulatory decisions.
NEE LONG
Speaker notes Dominion Energy's "unique geography" as a monopoly servicing Northern Virginia's "data center alley," which handles ~70% of global internet traffic. It has signed agreements to supply 4.85 GW to data centers and owns critical, non-replicable rights-of-way. Physical location is a key moat. Dominion is the essential utility for the world's most concentrated data center region, guaranteeing demand for its power. LONG because it is a regulated monopoly in the epicenter of data center growth, with visible, contracted demand. Regulatory pushback on rate increases or operational issues.
D LONG
Speaker describes Eaton Corporation as controlling the supply chain for critical electrical equipment (transformers, switchgear, power management systems). It co-developed a 480-volt power architecture for AI racks with NVIDIA. The transformer shortage is acute, with lead times of 3-5 years. ETN's vertical integration and patented technology (e.g., Busway) allow it to pass on cost increases and benefit directly from the build-out of data center physical infrastructure. LONG due to its dominant position in a bottleneck market (electrical equipment) with a direct technological link to NVIDIA's AI hardware ecosystem. A slowdown in data center capex spending or supply chain normalization.
ETN LONG
Speaker explicitly mentions Freeport-McMoRan as a major copper play, highlighting an existing and growing copper deficit driven by electrification of grids and data centers. Massive investments in power infrastructure (wiring, transformers) are highly copper-intensive. Supply has not kept up with this projected demand, creating a favorable medium-term setup. LONG as a medium-term investment in the copper supercycle theme, which is directly related to the energy infrastructure build-out. The stock is cyclical and volatile; a global recession could crater demand for industrial metals.
FCX LONG
21:43
Mar 27
Mar 27
SPY
MSFT
ADBE
GOLD
▾
Opened a long options position on the index, expecting a bounce to 6600-6700 by April. Identifies two primary Elliott Wave counts, both of which project an upward move from current levels. The decline from the highs is assessed as corrective (not a new impulse wave), characterized by overlapping waves and currently low volume, suggesting selling pressure is exhausting. Expects a significant counter-trend rally (minimum target ~6700) as part of either a larger wave 4 correction or a wave 2 within wave 3. The trade is structured with options to limit risk. A break below 6480 would invalidate the preferred diagonal count, suggesting a deeper correction toward 6000-6100 support.
SPY LONG
Stated "Microsoft я покупаю" (I am buying Microsoft). Considers it a good company that has reached a reasonable valuation, acting as a key infrastructure provider for AI. The stock is resting on support at the moving average within a larger uptrend. Its business is viewed as defensive (cloud services) whether AI succeeds or not. Buying on the current dip as part of a long-term position, with an expectation it will bounce toward 420 initially. Willing to average down if price falls further to ~290. The current correction could be a deep wave 2 within a diagonal pattern, potentially extending the drawdown.
MSFT LONG
Holds a position in Adobe, averaging down. States the company has growing revenue/profits, a cheap valuation (P/E ~13), and an active buyback (~11%). Interprets the prolonged price decline as a wide, volatile consolidation range ("боковик") rather than a fundamental breakdown. The business metrics remain strong. Believes the stock is undervalued and expects a mean-reversion bounce within its large trading range, with a first target near 400. The stock remains in a weak momentum phase and could continue to languish at the bottom of its range for an extended period.
ADBE LONG
Stated "золото я начал покупать, я уже говорил, уже купил" (I started buying gold, I already said, I already bought). Shows a chart with a collar strategy (long call + short put) to define risk. The price is seen as correcting within a larger impulsive uptrend, currently testing support from a previous "cup and handle" breakout zone. Momentum oscillators show periods of being oversold. Entering a long position on the expectation the bullish trend will resume, targeting a move to close the gap near 4800-5000. The correction could extend into a deeper zigzag pattern, testing lower levels before reversing.
GOLD LONG
17:13
Mar 21
Mar 21
NDX
SLV
GOLD
BTC
SPY
▾
Speaker identifies a target zone of 6,750-6,800 for a bounce in the Nasdaq (NDX) and notes the market is at local support with oversold indicators. The recent decline is not impulsive but rather a diagonal or complex correction, which typically implies a sharp retracement (second wave). Market sentiment is also at extreme fear. WATCH for a significant technical rebound to the cited target zone from current oversold conditions. The decline could become impulsive, invalidating the corrective pattern and leading to further downside.
NDX WATCH
Speaker explicitly states he has started actively accumulating silver ("Я серебро начал активно отрабатывать уже в лонг") using the SLV ETF and options. He analyzes a triangle pattern and believes the current zone is a good area to start building a position, using options to limit risk instead of buying the spot asset outright. LONG because he is initiating positions in anticipation of the pattern eventually resolving to the upside. Price could make another leg down to the $62-60 area before reversing.
SLV LONG
Speaker states he is starting to re-enter gold positions ("Я начинаю заново заходить в золото") and is improving his cost basis. He expects a strong mean reversion bounce back to the ~$5,000 level by April-May, based on technical patterns (triangle, wave count) and the large current deviation from the moving average. LONG because the setup offers a favorable risk/reward for a bounce, and he is actively rebuilding his position. The pattern could extend into a larger correction before the anticipated bounce.
GOLD LONG
Speaker explicitly says Bitcoin will likely reach its low by the end of 2026/early 2027, in a range of $25,000 to $50,000, and advises against buying now ("не торопитесь сейчас покупать"). Price remains below key moving averages and is in a clear downtrend. A proper buy setup requires a breakout above the MA and a subsequent successful retest, which is not present. AVOID because the trend is down, a significant lower low is expected, and no constructive buy trigger is in sight. A sudden surge in global liquidity could cause an earlier rally.
BTC AVOID
Speaker expects a bounce in the S&P 500 following the March OPEX expiration, likely by the end of the next week ("Я ожидаю в следующую неделю... какой-то отскок"). The massive negative gamma from the March options series (which exacerbated selling) has now expired. This removes a technical selling pressure and allows for a rebalancing bounce. WATCH for a short-term bullish reversal setup as the technical selling pressure from options market makers abates. A new series of large put options could be written in the next quarter, recreating negative gamma and selling pressure.
SPY WATCH
Speaker highlights Lennar (LEN) and KKR as examples of companies being sold by institutions, with falling revenues/profits and significant exposure to weakening cyclical sectors (housing) and private credit, respectively. Institutional selling in the face of deteriorating fundamentals suggests these companies face headwinds. For financials like KKR, there is hidden risk from private credit loans that may need to be written down. AVOID because fundamental deterioration is driving institutional capital away, increasing downside risk. A stronger-than-expected economy could prevent a deeper cyclical downturn and stabilize these businesses.
LEN AVOID
KKR AVOID
23:01
Mar 13
Mar 13
USO
XOM
PLTR
MOS
WEAT
▾
"The Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed... blocking about 20% of world oil exports. The technical ability to release from reserves is only 3 million barrels a day, which is incomparable to the 20 million barrels lost." The physical limitation of extraction and logistics means strategic reserves cannot plug the supply hole. As the blockade drags on, the compounding daily deficit will drain global inventories, forcing oil prices significantly higher (potentially $150-$200) to destroy demand. LONG. The math of the supply deficit heavily favors a continued breakout in oil prices. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic resolution that immediately reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
USO LONG
"Exxon Mobil is not threatened because it operates all over the world and can easily replace one direction with another. They will increase both the volume of sold material and the price." Global oil majors with diversified, worldwide logistics networks will not be bottlenecked by the Middle East blockade. They will capture a massive revenue windfall by selling their non-Middle Eastern oil at inflated global prices. LONG. These companies get the pricing benefit of the crisis without the localized logistical risk. A severe global recession triggered by high energy prices, leading to widespread demand destruction.
XOM LONG
"The business looks great, but the current valuation is 77 times earnings, which is very expensive. It dropped below the moving average and is testing it as resistance, forming a head and shoulders pattern." When a stock with a priced-for-perfection valuation breaks key technical support levels, it signals that institutional distribution is occurring. The stock is vulnerable to a deep mean-reversion correction (potentially down to the $45-$80 range) to normalize its multiple. SHORT. The combination of extreme valuation and a bearish technical breakdown provides a high-probability downside setup. Unexpectedly massive earnings beats or new AI contract announcements that trigger a short squeeze.
PLTR SHORT
"Mosaic... technically it can go up. It broke the resistance level, tested it, and is reversing. Its chart correlates with oil because fertilizers are made using hydrocarbons." The geopolitical shock is creating a broader commodity supercycle. High energy input costs and disrupted global supply chains will drive up the end-market prices for agricultural chemicals, expanding top-line revenue for major fertilizer producers. LONG. The stock is breaking out of a long-term downtrend, supported by macro tailwinds in the commodity sector. High fertilizer prices causing farmers to reduce application rates, leading to demand destruction.
MOS LONG
"Wheat was falling to a massive cluster... it is starting to leave this cluster upwards. This is a commodity supercycle associated with shock scenarios and supply chain disruptions." Logistical bottlenecks in global shipping routes do not just affect energy; they disrupt the transport of global food supplies. As wheat hits major historical technical support, fear of supply shortages will attract buyers and drive prices higher. LONG. A strong technical bounce aligns with the macro narrative of global supply chain stress. Rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions easing shipping and logistics fears.
WEAT LONG
"Bitcoin broke support... usually the price corrects 70-80% from the high in each cycle. We have only done 50%. We should hit the bottom between October and April 2027." Cryptocurrency follows strict historical boom-and-bust cycles. Because the current drawdown has not yet reached the historical 70-80% threshold, there is still significant downside risk (potentially to $43,000 or $27,000) before the true cyclical bottom is formed. AVOID. The asset is in a confirmed cyclical bear market with lower targets pending. Premature macro liquidity injections (like emergency QE from the Fed) that spark an early crypto bull run.
BTC AVOID
"We have a lot of negative gamma on the market right now hanging on the March contracts. After the 20th, these options will expire and the gamma will change sharply." Options market mechanics (dealers hedging negative gamma) are currently suppressing the broader market and exacerbating volatility. Once the March OPEX clears, this mechanical selling pressure will lift, potentially allowing the market to reverse and rally. WATCH. Wait for the March 20th options expiration to clear before taking aggressive directional positions on the broader index. A severe exogenous macro shock (e.g., oil spiking to $200) overrides options dealer positioning and forces a true fundamental market crash.
SPY WATCH
"I see institutional purchases going in large volumes for ServiceNow... CRM and MSFT have excellent cash flows, are fundamentally attractive, and are testing support zones." While the broader market faces volatility, high-quality enterprise software companies with robust cash flows are being actively accumulated by institutions on dips. These technical support tests offer asymmetric entry points for long-term capital. LONG. Strong fundamentals combined with visible institutional buying at technical support levels. A systemic market sell-off that drags down all high-beta tech stocks regardless of individual cash flow strength.
NOW LONG
CRM LONG
MSFT LONG
"Tesla is likely to go down... it is falling out of the triangle, wave C has finished, and it will go to the $220 area to create another shoulder for distribution." The completion of a long-term technical consolidation pattern (a triangle) to the downside indicates that sellers have fully overwhelmed buyers. This initiates a new bearish impulse wave as institutional distribution continues. SHORT. The technical breakdown signals a high-probability move to lower support zones. Surprise positive delivery numbers or unexpected product announcements that invalidate the technical breakdown.
TSLA SHORT
"It dropped 85% because it was expensive... now we are entering an extreme oversold zone, and the company is slowly moving into the profitable zone with revenue still growing." The massive valuation reset is complete. As the underlying business transitions from unprofitable to profitable while maintaining top-line growth, the extreme technical oversold conditions will trigger a sharp mean-reversion rally as the market re-rates the stock positively. LONG. The combination of fundamental business improvement and extreme technical exhaustion of sellers creates a strong buy setup. The company fails to achieve projected profitability, causing the market to punish the stock further.
TEAM LONG
19:15
Mar 01
Mar 01
FCX
SLV
INTU
UBER
MSFT
▾
There is a structural deficit in the copper market. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is in a technical "Wave 5" upward impulse. The fundamental shortage combined with the technical breakout suggests the trend will continue throughout 2026. Long Copper miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand.
FCX LONG
COPPER LONG
Silver had an extreme momentum spike and is now cooling off. The market needs to consolidate. Solodin is waiting for a pullback to the $55–65 range to re-enter for the next leg up. Wait for the dip to buy. Price may not dip deep enough to hit his entry zone.
SLV WATCH
These stocks are testing major historical accumulation zones or breaking out with strong momentum (specifically INTU). Solodin identifies these as having strong "network effects" and favorable technical setups (testing support with volume) while other sectors look overextended. Long on technical support tests. Broader S&P 500 correction.
INTU LONG
UBER LONG
LYFT LONG
CRM LONG
Microsoft and Google have maintained stable Free Cash Flow (FCF) despite high Capex, unlike Amazon whose FCF is collapsing. MSFT trades at a reasonable 24 P/E with strong "Rule of 40" metrics. As the market becomes volatile, capital will rotate into "Blue Chip" tech that can self-fund growth without deteriorating balance sheets. Solodin explicitly bought MSFT for diversification and stability. Long for fundamental stability and reasonable valuation. General market correction dragging down all beta assets.
MSFT LONG
GOOGL LONG
TLT is forming a base. Solodin suggests a "Collar" strategy (Buy TLT, Buy Put, Sell Call) to create a risk-free trade. The dividend yield (3.7%) plus the option premium (3.2%) creates a ~7% yield with capped upside but protected downside. Long via Options Strategy (Collar). Capped upside if rates drop significantly faster than expected.
TLT LONG
Amazon's Free Cash Flow has dropped from ~$48B to ~$7.6B and is trending toward negative territory in 2026 due to massive Capex increases. While technically the stock could still hit $270 (new high), the fundamental deterioration makes it a dangerous hold compared to peers like MSFT. Avoid or Watch. Solodin prefers MSFT/GOOG. Technical momentum could override fundamental weakness in the short term.
AMZN WATCH
Nvidia is forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern. Valuation is high relative to sales. If the "neckline" breaks, the stock could drop to $120–130. However, a bullish alternative (Triangle) exists if it holds support. Neutral/Avoid until the pattern resolves. If it is a triangle pattern, it could break out to new highs ($220+).
NVDA WATCH
Bitcoin hit a cycle peak of ~$126k and is now correcting. Historical "Halving Cycles" suggest the bottom won't occur until late 2026 or early 2027. Solodin expects a 77% drawdown from the peak, targeting the $25k–30k range. Any current rallies are likely "B-wave" bull traps (to ~$80-90k) before the final crash. Sell rallies; do not hold long positions. If BTC breaks above the $90k resistance and invalidates the lower high structure.
BTC SHORT
16:32
Feb 20
Feb 20
ADBE
PYPL
AAPL
ORCL
PFE
▾
Solodin highlights Adobe trading around $256. He notes that buying 100 shares requires ~$25,600, whereas a deep ITM LEAPS Call (Strike 150, Jan 2026) costs only ~$8,000. Alternatively, selling a Cash Secured Put at Strike 230 yields significant premium. Using LEAPS provides 3x leverage with a similar P&L profile to the stock but less capital at risk in a catastrophic failure. Selling the Put allows the investor to monetize the willingness to buy the dip, generating ~20% annualized yield if the stock stays flat or rises, or acquiring the stock at a steep discount ($200 net cost) if it falls. LONG via LEAPS for capital efficiency or Short Puts for income/acquisition. For LEAPS, time decay if the stock stagnates for years. For Short Puts, assignment of stock during a massive market crash.
ADBE LONG
Solodin discusses a scenario where an investor bought PayPal at $100 and it crashed to $60 (and lower). He explains his personal strategy of holding a Protective Put at the time of entry. Instead of suffering the full -40% drawdown, the investor sells the appreciated Put option (which gained value during the crash) and buys a new, cheaper Put at a lower strike. The profit from this transaction is used to mathematically lower the cost basis of the stock (e.g., from $100 to $53). LONG (Recovery Play). This "rolling down" strategy allows investors to hold high-conviction assets through deep drawdowns without realizing full losses, positioning for a rebound with a lowered breakeven point. The stock continues to zero or stays flat below the new breakeven for an extended period, expiring the new hedges.
PYPL LONG
Solodin identifies a pricing anomaly due to interest rates: Calls are expensive and Puts are cheap. He proposes a "Collar" strategy: Buy Stock at $255, Buy Jan 2027 Put (Strike 270), and Sell Jan 2027 Call (Strike 300). Because the Call is expensive, selling it generates enough premium to pay for the Put and lock in a guaranteed profit. The structure creates a position with zero downside risk (due to the Put) and a capped upside (due to the Call), yielding ~13% annualized—better than risk-free rates with equity exposure. LONG (Risk-Free Structure). This exploits the interest rate skew to create a bond-like return profile using equities. Opportunity cost if Apple skyrockets above $300; the investor is capped and misses out on excess gains.
AAPL LONG
Oracle experienced a "flash crash" (drop from $170 to $140), pushing Implied Volatility (IV) to the 100th percentile (2-year high). Buying calls is too expensive due to the IV spike. Selling naked puts is risky in a crash. The optimal move is a "Credit Put Spread" (Sell ATM Put / Buy OTM Put). This strategy sells the expensive volatility to the market while capping downside risk. LONG (Volatility Short). As the stock stabilizes and IV crushes (reverts to mean), the spread becomes profitable even if the price doesn't rebound significantly. The stock continues to crash through the protective put strike, resulting in a max loss on the spread.
ORCL LONG
Solodin uses Pfizer as an example of a "dead money" stock—trading between $22 and $29 with a high dividend yield (7%). Investors holding for the dividend face price risk. By selling Covered Calls (e.g., Strike 35) when volatility spikes (like during earnings), the investor collects extra yield (~5%) on top of dividends. NEUTRAL/INCOME. If the stock falls, the call premium buffers the loss. If it rises, the investor is happy to exit at the strike price. The stock rallies aggressively past the strike, forcing the investor to sell their shares and lose the dividend stream.
PFE NEUTRAL
20:00
Feb 13
Feb 13
FTNT
PLTR
MRNA
ORCL
ONDS
▾
The Cybersecurity sector has been beaten down alongside software. Security is non-discretionary spend. These companies are approaching attractive buy zones. Solodin is watching them for entry but notes some (like ZS) have questions regarding multi-cloud competition. WATCH (Potential Longs). Further sector rotation out of high-multiple tech.
FTNT WATCH
PANW WATCH
ZS WATCH
OKTA WATCH
Palantir trades at a massive valuation (Market Cap ~$317B vs Revenue ~$4.5B). The chart shows a "Head and Shoulders" pattern and has broken moving average support. While the company is excellent (the "Google of AI"), the stock is priced for perfection. The valuation disconnect (P/S ratio > 60) makes it vulnerable to a deep correction, potentially down to the $60 range. SHORT / AVOID. AI hype could keep the valuation irrational for longer.
PLTR SHORT
Revenue collapsed from $18B to ~$2.2B. The company has no free cash flow and is burning cash. This is a "broken" stock. Without a new blockbuster product to replace Covid revenues, there is no fundamental floor. It is a "falling knife" with no support. AVOID. Unexpected success in their cancer vaccine pipeline could trigger a rally.
MRNA AVOID
Oracle has a massive backlog but huge CapEx requirements ($13B negative free cash flow impact) to build AI infrastructure. The company is borrowing heavily to fund AI expansion. While revenue is growing, the balance sheet strain and high valuation make it a risky bet compared to cash-rich peers. AVOID. Successful execution of AI cloud strategy could justify the spend.
ORCL AVOID
Ondas Holdings (Combat drones/tech) has weak flows, negative margins, and high dilution risk (negative buyback/share issuance). Companies that cannot self-fund operations dilute shareholders to survive. High short interest here is likely justified due to the "empty" fundamentals. AVOID. Winning a major government contract could spike the price.
ONDS AVOID
CRM (Salesforce) is down ~50% and PEGA (Pegasystems) is trading at attractive valuations despite 300% EPS growth (for PEGA). Solodin notes these are top-tier "System of Record" companies. The market fears AI will replace these tools, but large enterprises (e.g., GM, AIG) cannot easily switch away from Salesforce due to decades of data integration, staff training, and embedded workflows. These companies possess the proprietary data required to train effective enterprise AI models, giving them a "Data Moat" startups cannot match. LONG. These are "sticky" businesses with growing cash flows trading at discount valuations. Continued compression of valuation multiples if AI fears persist longer than expected.
PEGA LONG
CRM LONG
Adobe (ADBE) is down ~60%, Intuit (INTU) ~50%, and Workday (WDAY)/ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant corrections despite stable or growing revenues. Similar to Salesforce, these companies are industry standards. For Adobe, while AI image generation exists, professional workflows require the full Adobe suite (editing, layers, vector). Professionals won't switch to a generic AI tool for complex deliverables. The "AI threat" is overstated; AI will be a feature *within* these platforms (e.g., Firefly in Photoshop). LONG. Buying the "best in breed" during a sector-wide panic. Pricing pressure from clients demanding AI-driven cost reductions.
ADBE LONG
INTU LONG
WDAY LONG
NOW LONG
Zeta Global is down significantly but revenue is growing 35% YoY, and it is on the verge of GAAP profitability. Institutional ownership increased by 11.5% in the last 3 months. Unlike legacy tech trying to pivot, Zeta was "born in AI." It is currently in a technical accumulation zone. The combination of strong fundamental flows (revenue growth + approaching profitability) and institutional accumulation suggests the bottom is near. LONG. Target price around $40 (significant upside from current ~$15 levels mentioned). High volatility; price could retest lows before breaking out.
ZETA LONG
Both companies have high "Short Float" (>10-14%) and rising institutional buying (Transactions up >12%). DLocal (DLO) has ~30% revenue growth and is profitable. This setup creates a "Short Squeeze" potential. When strong hands (institutions) accumulate while short interest is high, any positive catalyst can force shorts to cover, fueling a rapid price ascent (similar to Tesla's past moves). LONG. Speculative play on a "Transition" phase driven by short covering. High volatility; these are "falling knives" until the trend explicitly reverses.
IONQ LONG
DLO LONG
Doximity stock has crashed, but fundamentals remain robust: 20% revenue growth, rising EPS, and P/E around 20x. It operates a "sticky" platform for medical professionals (the "LinkedIn for Doctors"). The crash is a technical "falling knife" into a long-term accumulation zone. The business model is not broken, making this a value entry point. LONG. A long-term compounder currently on sale. Catching a falling knife; volatility remains high.
DOCS LONG
Pinterest is trading near lows ($15 range) but cash flows are positive and growing. EBITDA growth is nearly 100% YoY (though aided by base effects). AI generates content, but that content needs distribution and marketing. Pinterest is a key advertising platform benefiting from increased digital ad spend. The stock is in a massive accumulation zone; a return to the "center" of the range ($25) offers nearly 100% upside. LONG. Competition from other social platforms.
PINS LONG
19:50
Feb 08
Feb 08
DIS
PLTR
FCX
CALM
VITL
▾
Disney is forming an "impulse" wave structure off the lows and is trading at a reasonable P/E of 16. The technicals (impulse + zigzag correction) create a high-probability setup for a continued rally toward $170-$200. Fundamentals are stabilizing with buybacks active. Speculative Long. Streaming profitability issues; legacy TV decline.
DIS LONG
Palantir broke below its key moving average support. While the AI narrative is strong, the technical damage (breaking the trend) takes precedence. It is expensive and now lacks momentum support. Avoid / Neutral. It could regain the moving average and squeeze shorts.
PLTR AVOID
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is breaking out of a 20-year historic resistance level. This technical breakout coincides with a projected global copper deficit. When a commodity producer breaks a multi-decade level during a supply crunch, it signals a violent repricing upward. A high-conviction long based on the convergence of macro supply/demand and a massive technical breakout. Global recession crushing industrial demand.
FCX LONG
* CALM: Correction appears finished. * VITL: Forming a flat transition pattern. * CPRX: Trading near highs ($26.50) with strong fundamentals (low P/E, growing revenue). These are specific idiosyncratic setups unrelated to the broader tech beta. CPRX specifically is a breakout candidate if it clears resistance. Long (Tactical). Low liquidity in smaller caps; specific industry risks (e.g., avian flu for CALM).
CALM LONG
VITL LONG
CPRX LONG
Bitcoin is following a precise 4-year cycle that aligns with previous tops. Based on "Top-to-Bottom" and "Bottom-to-Bottom" time cycles, a significant correction is due, targeting a bottom in late 2026. The current price action mimics the distribution patterns of previous cycle peaks. Short / Avoid (Expect correction to 40k-50k range). Institutional adoption (ETFs) breaks the historical retail-driven cycle.
BTC SHORT
Inflation-adjusted natural gas prices are at 1990 levels (historic lows). The chart shows a completed diagonal pattern. The downside is mathematically limited by the cost of production and historic floors. The technical setup (diagonal) implies a sharp reversal or "impulse" move upward is imminent. Long as a contrarian mean-reversion play. Warm winter; continued oversupply; political pressure to keep energy cheap.
UNG LONG
AMD has formed a "Regular Flat" correction pattern where the recent low matched the previous low (Double Bottom), and the price is reacting positively. Unlike Nvidia, which is showing exhaustion, AMD's technical structure suggests the correction is complete. The "Regular Flat" is a continuation pattern that typically precedes a run to new all-time highs (target ~$280). Long on technical mean reversion and trend continuation. Semiconductor sector weakness; failure to hold the double bottom support.
AMD LONG
The stock attempted a Head & Shoulders pattern but failed to break the neckline decisively. Solodin is currently holding a short position via options. While the specific bearish pattern failed, the stock is struggling to maintain momentum compared to peers. However, the failure to break down suggests resilience, making this a tactical/managed trade rather than a "sell the house" conviction. Short (Tactical/Cautious). Solodin regrets not closing earlier, implying limited downside momentum remaining. The "AI Bubble" mania continues; price reclaims highs.
NVDA SHORT
The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.
CRM LONG
NOW LONG
INTU LONG
ADBE LONG
PANW LONG
FTNT LONG
PayPal has dropped significantly (80% from highs) and is now trading at deep value multiples, yet revenue and earnings continue to grow. The market is pricing it for bankruptcy, but the cash flows tell a story of a mature "value" company. Solodin removed his hedges, signaling a shift from "cautious holding" to "conviction holding." Long (Deep Value). Competition from Apple Pay/fintech; margin compression.
PYPL LONG
Both companies have pristine balance sheets and growing earnings, but Free Cash Flow (FCF) is dipping due to massive AI Capex ($160B forecast for Google). The market is punishing them for spending, but this spending is necessary to secure future dominance. The dip in price offers a favorable risk/reward (e.g., MSFT risk $50 vs reward $200) before the AI investments potentially pay off. Long (Dip Buy). "Depreciation bomb" – if AI Capex doesn't generate returns, amortization costs will crush future EPS.
GOOGL LONG
MSFT LONG
UnitedHealth is in a large Wave 4 distribution/correction. The stock is trading at the lower bound of its historical range. Technical analysis suggests a mean reversion to the median price (~$450) and potentially higher to complete the long-term Wave 5. Long. Regulatory changes in US healthcare; rising medical costs.
UNH LONG
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