Что ждать от SPX после "Тройного Колдвоства"? | Еженедельник Investor+
Speakers
Summary
- Global liquidity conditions are stable; central bank balance sheets (especially the Fed) have stopped contracting, which is a positive for market liquidity.
- Current financial regime is risk-off: real bond yields are positive and exceed the S&P 500's forward earnings yield (4.28% vs 3.43%), making bonds relatively attractive. However, select mega-cap tech stocks like Microsoft and Google have much higher forward earnings yields (~27%).
- The oil market is in extreme volatility (99th percentile) due to the Hormuz Strait disruption. Russian Urals crude now trades at a $5-6 premium to Brent (vs. a previous $20 discount), which could significantly boost future cash flows for Russian oil companies and the Russian budget, though logistical challenges remain.
- Bitcoin is in a downtrend and is expected to find a bottom between $25,000 and $50,000 by late 2026/early 2027. A buy trigger would require a break above and successful test of the moving average.
- Silver is being accumulated via the SLV ETF and options, anticipating a triangle pattern will eventually resolve upwards after further possible downside.
- Gold is being re-entered with an expectation of a mean reversion bounce to around $5,000 by April-May, driven by technical patterns (potential triangle completion) and extreme deviation from its moving average.
- The March OPEX (quadruple witching) created massive negative gamma, exacerbating the sell-off in equities. With that options series expired, a technical bounce is likely in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, targeting ~6,750-6,800 on the NDX.
- Intuitive Surgical (INSI) is being bought for its explosive fundamental growth (EPS up 2000% YoY) and a cup-and-handle technical pattern; a break above $150 would be a signal to add.
- Cyclical sectors, particularly housing (e.g., Lennar) and financials with private credit exposure (e.g., KKR, Apollo), are seeing institutional selling and deteriorating fundamentals, signaling elevated risk.
- Market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index) is at extreme fear levels (~9.4), which historically coincides with market bottoms and suggests a bounce is probable.
Trade Ideas
Speaker explicitly says Bitcoin will likely reach its low by the end of 2026/early 2027, in a range of $25,000 to $50,000, and advises against buying now ("не торопитесь сейчас покупать"). Price remains below key moving averages and is in a clear downtrend. A proper buy setup requires a breakout above the MA and a subsequent successful retest, which is not present. AVOID because the trend is down, a significant lower low is expected, and no constructive buy trigger is in sight. A sudden surge in global liquidity could cause an earlier rally.
Speaker explicitly states he has started actively accumulating silver ("Я серебро начал активно отрабатывать уже в лонг") using the SLV ETF and options. He analyzes a triangle pattern and believes the current zone is a good area to start building a position, using options to limit risk instead of buying the spot asset outright. LONG because he is initiating positions in anticipation of the pattern eventually resolving to the upside. Price could make another leg down to the $62-60 area before reversing.
Speaker states he is starting to re-enter gold positions ("Я начинаю заново заходить в золото") and is improving his cost basis. He expects a strong mean reversion bounce back to the ~$5,000 level by April-May, based on technical patterns (triangle, wave count) and the large current deviation from the moving average. LONG because the setup offers a favorable risk/reward for a bounce, and he is actively rebuilding his position. The pattern could extend into a larger correction before the anticipated bounce.
Speaker expects a bounce in the S&P 500 following the March OPEX expiration, likely by the end of the next week ("Я ожидаю в следующую неделю... какой-то отскок"). The massive negative gamma from the March options series (which exacerbated selling) has now expired. This removes a technical selling pressure and allows for a rebalancing bounce. WATCH for a short-term bullish reversal setup as the technical selling pressure from options market makers abates. A new series of large put options could be written in the next quarter, recreating negative gamma and selling pressure.
Speaker identifies a target zone of 6,750-6,800 for a bounce in the Nasdaq (NDX) and notes the market is at local support with oversold indicators. The recent decline is not impulsive but rather a diagonal or complex correction, which typically implies a sharp retracement (second wave). Market sentiment is also at extreme fear. WATCH for a significant technical rebound to the cited target zone from current oversold conditions. The decline could become impulsive, invalidating the corrective pattern and leading to further downside.
Speaker highlights Lennar (LEN) and KKR as examples of companies being sold by institutions, with falling revenues/profits and significant exposure to weakening cyclical sectors (housing) and private credit, respectively. Institutional selling in the face of deteriorating fundamentals suggests these companies face headwinds. For financials like KKR, there is hidden risk from private credit loans that may need to be written down. AVOID because fundamental deterioration is driving institutional capital away, increasing downside risk. A stronger-than-expected economy could prevent a deeper cyclical downturn and stabilize these businesses.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published March 21, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing BTC, SLV, GOLD, SPY, NDX, LEN, KKR. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: BTC, SLV, GOLD, SPY, NDX, LEN, KKR