SPX может отскочить на 6750 к лету | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным
Summary
- Presents a technical analysis of S&P 500 futures, identifying two primary bullish Elliott Wave scenarios. Both scenarios anticipate a near-term bounce from current levels, with a minimum target of 6600-6700 by April/May.
- Opened a long options position on the SPX (call or call spread) targeting this bounce, citing defined risk. Plans to double down if the market dips further toward the 6000-6100 support zone (key option strikes and former resistance).
- Believes the current decline lacks the volume signature of a panic or impulse wave, suggesting it is a corrective move (flat or expanded flat) within a larger uptrend.
- Advocates for a "buy the dip" strategy in high-quality, fundamentally strong companies currently experiencing sharp but potentially short-lived corrections (e.g., MSFT, ADBE, CRM). Argues the speed of the decline will be matched by the speed of the recovery.
- Highlights specific technical setups: Nvidia (NVDA) may form a head-and-shoulders pattern, Google (GOOGL) appears to have completed a corrective pattern, and Gazprom shows a potential cup-and-handle formation.
- Expresses a secularly bullish long-term view on equities, dismissing a bear market scenario due to persistent monetary inflation. Acknowledges geopolitical (Iran, oil) and stagflationary risks as key uncertainties.
- Distinguishes between investor and speculator mindsets, advising investors in good companies to tolerate high volatility and avoid panic selling during steep corrections.
Trade Ideas
Opened a long options position on the index, expecting a bounce to 6600-6700 by April. Identifies two primary Elliott Wave counts, both of which project an upward move from current levels. The decline from the highs is assessed as corrective (not a new impulse wave), characterized by overlapping waves and currently low volume, suggesting selling pressure is exhausting. Expects a significant counter-trend rally (minimum target ~6700) as part of either a larger wave 4 correction or a wave 2 within wave 3. The trade is structured with options to limit risk. A break below 6480 would invalidate the preferred diagonal count, suggesting a deeper correction toward 6000-6100 support.
Holds a position in Adobe, averaging down. States the company has growing revenue/profits, a cheap valuation (P/E ~13), and an active buyback (~11%). Interprets the prolonged price decline as a wide, volatile consolidation range ("боковик") rather than a fundamental breakdown. The business metrics remain strong. Believes the stock is undervalued and expects a mean-reversion bounce within its large trading range, with a first target near 400. The stock remains in a weak momentum phase and could continue to languish at the bottom of its range for an extended period.
Stated "Microsoft я покупаю" (I am buying Microsoft). Considers it a good company that has reached a reasonable valuation, acting as a key infrastructure provider for AI. The stock is resting on support at the moving average within a larger uptrend. Its business is viewed as defensive (cloud services) whether AI succeeds or not. Buying on the current dip as part of a long-term position, with an expectation it will bounce toward 420 initially. Willing to average down if price falls further to ~290. The current correction could be a deep wave 2 within a diagonal pattern, potentially extending the drawdown.
Stated "золото я начал покупать, я уже говорил, уже купил" (I started buying gold, I already said, I already bought). Shows a chart with a collar strategy (long call + short put) to define risk. The price is seen as correcting within a larger impulsive uptrend, currently testing support from a previous "cup and handle" breakout zone. Momentum oscillators show periods of being oversold. Entering a long position on the expectation the bullish trend will resume, targeting a move to close the gap near 4800-5000. The correction could extend into a deeper zigzag pattern, testing lower levels before reversing.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published March 27, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing SPY, ADBE, MSFT, GOLD. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: SPY, ADBE, MSFT, GOLD