Почему упали ИНФОТЕХИ и стоит ли их ПОКУПАТЬ? | Инвест ГРОГ с Солодиным
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 13, 2026 at 20:00 UTC  |  2:19:31  |  Dmitry Solodin
Speakers
Dmitry Solodin — Trader / Investor

Summary

  • The "SaaS Massacre": A massive sell-off has occurred in the InfoTech and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) sectors, with major names down 50-80% (e.g., TTD, ADBE, CRM, DUOL).
  • The prevailing fear is "AI Disruption": Investors worry that Generative AI will destroy the "moats" of legacy software companies (e.g., AI coding replacing developers, AI agents replacing CRM seats).
  • Solodin’s Contrarian View: This is a "Gray Bull Tale" (a scare story). He argues that established SaaS giants (Salesforce, Adobe) have insurmountable data advantages and high switching costs. AI will likely be a feature they integrate, not a replacement.
  • "Speed of Fall = Speed of Bounce": The volatility works both ways. He expects a sharp V-shaped recovery for quality companies with strong cash flows that were unfairly punished.
  • Institutional Activity: Despite the crash, institutional investors are aggressively buying the dip in specific names (ZETA, DLO, IONQ), while retail sells out of fear.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
SHORT Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Palantir trades at a massive valuation (Market Cap ~$317B vs Revenue ~$4.5B). The chart shows a "Head and Shoulders" pattern and has broken moving average support. While the company is excellent (the "Google of AI"), the stock is priced for perfection. The valuation disconnect (P/S ratio > 60) makes it vulnerable to a deep correction, potentially down to the $60 range. SHORT / AVOID. AI hype could keep the valuation irrational for longer.
AVOID Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Revenue collapsed from $18B to ~$2.2B. The company has no free cash flow and is burning cash. This is a "broken" stock. Without a new blockbuster product to replace Covid revenues, there is no fundamental floor. It is a "falling knife" with no support. AVOID. Unexpected success in their cancer vaccine pipeline could trigger a rally.
AVOID Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Oracle has a massive backlog but huge CapEx requirements ($13B negative free cash flow impact) to build AI infrastructure. The company is borrowing heavily to fund AI expansion. While revenue is growing, the balance sheet strain and high valuation make it a risky bet compared to cash-rich peers. AVOID. Successful execution of AI cloud strategy could justify the spend. 39:44
AVOID Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Ondas Holdings (Combat drones/tech) has weak flows, negative margins, and high dilution risk (negative buyback/share issuance). Companies that cannot self-fund operations dilute shareholders to survive. High short interest here is likely justified due to the "empty" fundamentals. AVOID. Winning a major government contract could spike the price.
WATCH Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
The Cybersecurity sector has been beaten down alongside software. Security is non-discretionary spend. These companies are approaching attractive buy zones. Solodin is watching them for entry but notes some (like ZS) have questions regarding multi-cloud competition. WATCH (Potential Longs). Further sector rotation out of high-multiple tech.
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
CRM (Salesforce) is down ~50% and PEGA (Pegasystems) is trading at attractive valuations despite 300% EPS growth (for PEGA). Solodin notes these are top-tier "System of Record" companies. The market fears AI will replace these tools, but large enterprises (e.g., GM, AIG) cannot easily switch away from Salesforce due to decades of data integration, staff training, and embedded workflows. These companies possess the proprietary data required to train effective enterprise AI models, giving them a "Data Moat" startups cannot match. LONG. These are "sticky" businesses with growing cash flows trading at discount valuations. Continued compression of valuation multiples if AI fears persist longer than expected. 39:48
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Adobe (ADBE) is down ~60%, Intuit (INTU) ~50%, and Workday (WDAY)/ServiceNow (NOW) have seen significant corrections despite stable or growing revenues. Similar to Salesforce, these companies are industry standards. For Adobe, while AI image generation exists, professional workflows require the full Adobe suite (editing, layers, vector). Professionals won't switch to a generic AI tool for complex deliverables. The "AI threat" is overstated; AI will be a feature *within* these platforms (e.g., Firefly in Photoshop). LONG. Buying the "best in breed" during a sector-wide panic. Pricing pressure from clients demanding AI-driven cost reductions. 11:29
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Zeta Global is down significantly but revenue is growing 35% YoY, and it is on the verge of GAAP profitability. Institutional ownership increased by 11.5% in the last 3 months. Unlike legacy tech trying to pivot, Zeta was "born in AI." It is currently in a technical accumulation zone. The combination of strong fundamental flows (revenue growth + approaching profitability) and institutional accumulation suggests the bottom is near. LONG. Target price around $40 (significant upside from current ~$15 levels mentioned). High volatility; price could retest lows before breaking out.
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Both companies have high "Short Float" (>10-14%) and rising institutional buying (Transactions up >12%). DLocal (DLO) has ~30% revenue growth and is profitable. This setup creates a "Short Squeeze" potential. When strong hands (institutions) accumulate while short interest is high, any positive catalyst can force shorts to cover, fueling a rapid price ascent (similar to Tesla's past moves). LONG. Speculative play on a "Transition" phase driven by short covering. High volatility; these are "falling knives" until the trend explicitly reverses. 73:10
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Doximity stock has crashed, but fundamentals remain robust: 20% revenue growth, rising EPS, and P/E around 20x. It operates a "sticky" platform for medical professionals (the "LinkedIn for Doctors"). The crash is a technical "falling knife" into a long-term accumulation zone. The business model is not broken, making this a value entry point. LONG. A long-term compounder currently on sale. Catching a falling knife; volatility remains high.
LONG Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Pinterest is trading near lows ($15 range) but cash flows are positive and growing. EBITDA growth is nearly 100% YoY (though aided by base effects). AI generates content, but that content needs distribution and marketing. Pinterest is a key advertising platform benefiting from increased digital ad spend. The stock is in a massive accumulation zone; a return to the "center" of the range ($25) offers nearly 100% upside. LONG. Competition from other social platforms.