Еженедельник Investor+ | 08 Февраля 2026
Summary
- The AI Bubble Thesis (2026 Context): Solodin argues the market is in a massive bubble comparable to the dot-com era, driven by AI infrastructure spending (Capex). However, he believes the bubble has 1.5–3 years remaining before bursting.
- Capex vs. ROI Disconnect: Hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, Meta) are spending record amounts (Google forecasted $160B Capex for 2026). This boosts GDP now but creates a "depreciation bomb" for future earnings if AI efficiency gains don't materialize quickly.
- Consumer Weakness: Despite GDP growth, US consumer sentiment is at 40-year lows (52 reading), and credit delinquencies are rising. The economy is supported by corporate investment, not consumption.
- Liquidity & Rates: Global liquidity is expanding (M2 up 11% YoY), and financial conditions are easing, supporting asset prices despite fundamental cracks.
- Crypto Cycle: Bitcoin is predicted to face a significant cyclical downturn towards the end of 2026, potentially dropping 60-70% from highs based on historical 4-year cycle alignments.
Trade Ideas
PayPal has dropped significantly (80% from highs) and is now trading at deep value multiples, yet revenue and earnings continue to grow. The market is pricing it for bankruptcy, but the cash flows tell a story of a mature "value" company. Solodin removed his hedges, signaling a shift from "cautious holding" to "conviction holding." Long (Deep Value). Competition from Apple Pay/fintech; margin compression.
Bitcoin is following a precise 4-year cycle that aligns with previous tops. Based on "Top-to-Bottom" and "Bottom-to-Bottom" time cycles, a significant correction is due, targeting a bottom in late 2026. The current price action mimics the distribution patterns of previous cycle peaks. Short / Avoid (Expect correction to 40k-50k range). Institutional adoption (ETFs) breaks the historical retail-driven cycle.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is breaking out of a 20-year historic resistance level. This technical breakout coincides with a projected global copper deficit. When a commodity producer breaks a multi-decade level during a supply crunch, it signals a violent repricing upward. A high-conviction long based on the convergence of macro supply/demand and a massive technical breakout. Global recession crushing industrial demand.
Inflation-adjusted natural gas prices are at 1990 levels (historic lows). The chart shows a completed diagonal pattern. The downside is mathematically limited by the cost of production and historic floors. The technical setup (diagonal) implies a sharp reversal or "impulse" move upward is imminent. Long as a contrarian mean-reversion play. Warm winter; continued oversupply; political pressure to keep energy cheap.
The stock attempted a Head & Shoulders pattern but failed to break the neckline decisively. Solodin is currently holding a short position via options. While the specific bearish pattern failed, the stock is struggling to maintain momentum compared to peers. However, the failure to break down suggests resilience, making this a tactical/managed trade rather than a "sell the house" conviction. Short (Tactical/Cautious). Solodin regrets not closing earlier, implying limited downside momentum remaining. The "AI Bubble" mania continues; price reclaims highs.
AMD has formed a "Regular Flat" correction pattern where the recent low matched the previous low (Double Bottom), and the price is reacting positively. Unlike Nvidia, which is showing exhaustion, AMD's technical structure suggests the correction is complete. The "Regular Flat" is a continuation pattern that typically precedes a run to new all-time highs (target ~$280). Long on technical mean reversion and trend continuation. Semiconductor sector weakness; failure to hold the double bottom support.
The Technology Services sector (SaaS/Cybersecurity) dropped 10-15% recently while hardware/semis held up. Solodin specifically highlights Salesforce (CRM) showing strong flows despite the price drop. This is a classic sector rotation. High-quality cash-flowing software companies are being sold off to fund hardware Capex. This divergence creates a "buy the dip" opportunity in best-in-breed names like Palo Alto (PANW) and Salesforce (CRM) which are becoming value plays relative to their growth. Long via sector rotation. Enterprise spending slowdown; persistent high rates hurting high-duration stocks.
* CALM: Correction appears finished. * VITL: Forming a flat transition pattern. * CPRX: Trading near highs ($26.50) with strong fundamentals (low P/E, growing revenue). These are specific idiosyncratic setups unrelated to the broader tech beta. CPRX specifically is a breakout candidate if it clears resistance. Long (Tactical). Low liquidity in smaller caps; specific industry risks (e.g., avian flu for CALM).
Both companies have pristine balance sheets and growing earnings, but Free Cash Flow (FCF) is dipping due to massive AI Capex ($160B forecast for Google). The market is punishing them for spending, but this spending is necessary to secure future dominance. The dip in price offers a favorable risk/reward (e.g., MSFT risk $50 vs reward $200) before the AI investments potentially pay off. Long (Dip Buy). "Depreciation bomb" – if AI Capex doesn't generate returns, amortization costs will crush future EPS.
UnitedHealth is in a large Wave 4 distribution/correction. The stock is trading at the lower bound of its historical range. Technical analysis suggests a mean reversion to the median price (~$450) and potentially higher to complete the long-term Wave 5. Long. Regulatory changes in US healthcare; rising medical costs.
Disney is forming an "impulse" wave structure off the lows and is trading at a reasonable P/E of 16. The technicals (impulse + zigzag correction) create a high-probability setup for a continued rally toward $170-$200. Fundamentals are stabilizing with buybacks active. Speculative Long. Streaming profitability issues; legacy TV decline.
Palantir broke below its key moving average support. While the AI narrative is strong, the technical damage (breaking the trend) takes precedence. It is expensive and now lacks momentum support. Avoid / Neutral. It could regain the moving average and squeeze shorts.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published February 08, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing PYPL, BTC, FCX, UNG, NVDA, AMD, CRM, NOW, INTU, ADBE, PANW, FTNT, CALM, VITL, CPRX, GOOGL, MSFT, UNH, DIS, PLTR. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: PYPL, BTC, FCX, UNG, NVDA, AMD, CRM, NOW, INTU, ADBE, PANW, FTNT, CALM, VITL, CPRX, GOOGL, MSFT, UNH, DIS, PLTR