Ближний Восток в огне! Что будет с нефтью? | Еженедельник Investor+
Speakers
Summary
- Macro Context (2026): The video is set in a future context (March 1, 2026). A major conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has erupted, potentially killing the Iranian leader. This is a "shock scenario" for oil markets.
- Oil Prediction: Expects a gap up and a "Wave 5" impulse move. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Oil could target $120–135.
- Crypto Bear Market: Solodin believes the Bitcoin cycle top is in ($126k peak). He predicts a massive correction (70-80% drop) lasting until late 2026/early 2027, targeting $25k–30k.
- Tech Divergence: He is rotating out of high-capex/low-FCF tech (like Amazon) into "Blue Chip" tech with stable cash flows (Microsoft, Google). He is cautious on Nvidia due to a potential Head & Shoulders pattern.
Trade Ideas
Amazon's Free Cash Flow has dropped from ~$48B to ~$7.6B and is trending toward negative territory in 2026 due to massive Capex increases. While technically the stock could still hit $270 (new high), the fundamental deterioration makes it a dangerous hold compared to peers like MSFT. Avoid or Watch. Solodin prefers MSFT/GOOG. Technical momentum could override fundamental weakness in the short term.
Microsoft and Google have maintained stable Free Cash Flow (FCF) despite high Capex, unlike Amazon whose FCF is collapsing. MSFT trades at a reasonable 24 P/E with strong "Rule of 40" metrics. As the market becomes volatile, capital will rotate into "Blue Chip" tech that can self-fund growth without deteriorating balance sheets. Solodin explicitly bought MSFT for diversification and stability. Long for fundamental stability and reasonable valuation. General market correction dragging down all beta assets.
There is a structural deficit in the copper market. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is in a technical "Wave 5" upward impulse. The fundamental shortage combined with the technical breakout suggests the trend will continue throughout 2026. Long Copper miners. Global recession reducing industrial demand.
TLT is forming a base. Solodin suggests a "Collar" strategy (Buy TLT, Buy Put, Sell Call) to create a risk-free trade. The dividend yield (3.7%) plus the option premium (3.2%) creates a ~7% yield with capped upside but protected downside. Long via Options Strategy (Collar). Capped upside if rates drop significantly faster than expected.
These stocks are testing major historical accumulation zones or breaking out with strong momentum (specifically INTU). Solodin identifies these as having strong "network effects" and favorable technical setups (testing support with volume) while other sectors look overextended. Long on technical support tests. Broader S&P 500 correction.
Nvidia is forming a potential Head & Shoulders pattern. Valuation is high relative to sales. If the "neckline" breaks, the stock could drop to $120–130. However, a bullish alternative (Triangle) exists if it holds support. Neutral/Avoid until the pattern resolves. If it is a triangle pattern, it could break out to new highs ($220+).
Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Silver had an extreme momentum spike and is now cooling off. The market needs to consolidate. Solodin is waiting for a pullback to the $55–65 range to re-enter for the next leg up. Wait for the dip to buy. Price may not dip deep enough to hit his entry zone.
Dmitry Solodin
Trader / Investor
Bitcoin hit a cycle peak of ~$126k and is now correcting. Historical "Halving Cycles" suggest the bottom won't occur until late 2026 or early 2027. Solodin expects a 77% drawdown from the peak, targeting the $25k–30k range. Any current rallies are likely "B-wave" bull traps (to ~$80-90k) before the final crash. Sell rallies; do not hold long positions. If BTC breaks above the $90k resistance and invalidates the lower high structure.
Up Next
This Dmitry Solodin video, published March 01, 2026, features Dmitry Solodin discussing AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, FCX, COPPER, TLT, INTU, UBER, LYFT, CRM, NVDA, SLV, BTC. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Dmitry Solodin · Tickers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, FCX, COPPER, TLT, INTU, UBER, LYFT, CRM, NVDA, SLV, BTC