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18:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
1h
SNOW
MSFT
IGV
TOST
TTAN
▾
HIGH
Snowflake is agentic AI data governance layer
Josh argues Snowflake was unfairly punished in the software selloff and is the data-governance layer for the coming agentic AI era. He notes 120-130% net revenue retention, existing customers spending more with no drop-off, and says 9,000 customers are already running agentic workflows directly inside Snowflake data lakes. He is long the stock, which nearly doubled from his late-May call around $205.
SNOW LONG
SaaS apocalypse narrative follows price, false
Jim says the SaaS apocalypse narrative followed price and was driven by hedged shorts and positioning, not fundamentals. Earnings now show software companies were doing fine; even Microsoft was below $400 for much of the first half, and now fundamentals give a lot of reasons to be in software spaces.
MSFT LONG
Software bearish narrative died; IGV recovers
Bryn argues hedge funds have been short the software basket and many software names have had V-shaped bounces off the bottom. She says IGV is about to make a race back to its highs, and the bearish software narrative that these companies are going away has died. The danger is getting too bearish on technology sectors and letting narrative replace price.
IGV LONG
Vertical SaaS disintermediation fears are wrong
Josh says he averaged down into Toast and ServiceTitan because the market narrative had it backwards: Silicon Valley assumed AI would disintermediate SaaS middlemen, but businesses want SaaS vendors that can be held accountable, and vertical end users like restaurant owners and contractors will not build their own software. Toast and ServiceTitan are now selling AI to their existing customer bases.
TOST LONG
TTAN LONG
Private credit systemic-risk narrative wrong
Bryn argues the private-credit systemic-risk narrative went hand in glove with the SaaS-apocalypse narrative and should be debunked too. Names at the epicenter such as Blue Owl and Apollo are up about 30%, showing the bearish thesis was wrong and these stocks are working.
APO LONG
OWL LONG
HIGH
18:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
1h
SRVR 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI compute demand strains data center infrastructure.
New frontier AI models are substantially more compute-intensive, and model releases are hitting data center infrastructure that is already constrained, especially on GPUs. Simultaneous benchmark demand and China's distillation efforts create cascading overloads and outages, keeping AI data center capacity tight.
SRVR LONG
HIGH
18:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
1h
SNOW
TWLO 1ST
PLTR 1ST
CRWD 1ST
OKTA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Snowflake accelerates growth on AI data demand
Snowflake is an accelerating growth story that raised its profit outlook for the third consecutive quarter. As companies adopt AI, Snowflake's data analytics platform helps make data actionable, and its AI agent coding tool CoCo added about 2,000 new customers this quarter, bringing the total to over 9,000. Snowflake also has partnerships with both Anthropic and OpenAI.
SNOW LONG
Software reports soften AI bear case
Twilio, Palantir, CrowdStrike, and Okta all delivered better-than-expected reports, and together with Snowflake's numbers these results soften the AI bear case for traditional software and raise the debate on whether software companies will be replaced by AI.
TWLO LONG
PLTR LONG
CRWD LONG
OKTA LONG
HIGH
18:24
Sep 03
Sep 03
CoinDesk
1h
BTC
AIQ 1ST
HYPE
3-month U.S. Treasuries
10-year U.S. Treasuries
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin can hit $1.3M by 2035.
He expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100K this year and reach $1.3M by 2035 because conditions are extremely bullish; crypto has formed a bottom, Wall Street is returning from summer to allocate, and Bitcoin is the fastest horse if governments inflate away the debt load. He also says 0% Bitcoin is a misallocation.
BTC LONG
Own AI stocks for growth scenario.
In the debt endgame, investors should own both AI stocks and Bitcoin: if Treasury Secretary Bessent is right that AI growth lets the US grow out of its debt, AI stocks win; if he is wrong, governments inflate the debt away and Bitcoin wins. He advises owning both to win either scenario.
AIQ LONG
Hyperliquid TAM is misunderstood 100x.
Hyperliquid has a catalyst in moving into the US market and is misunderstood: the market sizes it against the $2T crypto market, but it is serving all global assets, a $200T market, so its TAM could be 100x larger and it looks attractive.
HYPE LONG
Shorten bond duration to three-month Treasuries.
He sees investors reducing bond-side risk by shortening duration: instead of owning 10-year Treasuries, own three-month Treasuries and add crypto risk to get return. The traditional 60/40 portfolio is 100% fiat currency, so bond portfolios should avoid long-duration risk.
3-month U.S. Treasuries LONG
10-year U.S. Treasuries AVOID
Zcash fills privacy demand outside institutions.
As Bitcoin becomes institutional, a portion of the market will want something outside the institutional realm. Zcash is filling that privacy demand and is a unique story, making it one of three crypto stories to pay attention to.
ZEC LONG
Own L1 basket, not single winner.
He prefers a portfolio bet on layer-1 networks for tokenization rather than picking one winner: he would own ETH, Solana, Avalanche and maybe some XRP. The L1 winner is not 100% clear, and he compares owning a basket to owning Google, Yahoo and Ask Jeeves instead of betting on one during the internet bubble.
ETH LONG
SOL LONG
AVAX LONG
XRP LONG
Tokenization has 2,000x growth runway.
He believes tokenization and real-world assets are a decade-long supercycle: there is about $300B tokenized today versus $600T global assets, a 2,000x growth runway, so anything touching tokenization will have a bid for a long time.
Tokenized real-world assets LONG
Aave is pure play tokenization.
Aave is a very specific pure play in tokenization and real-world assets and is doing well; he names it among his top three tokenization bets.
AAVE LONG
Uniswap brand too small at $5B.
Uniswap is cleaning up from its Robinhood integration and at roughly $5B market cap is remarkably too small for its global brand; it will integrate extremely well in tokenization.
UNI LONG
Stellar leads non-US sovereign debt tokenization.
Stellar's tokenized real-world asset market has surged to nearly $4B and it is number one globally in tokenized non-US sovereign debt. Denelle sees the next leg of growth in private credit, non-US sovereign debt, money market funds and US-backed treasuries, with the opportunity in non-US government debt bigger than most people realize.
XLM LONG
HIGH
17:54
Sep 03
Sep 03
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield
AI-related infrastructure
WTI 1ST
XLE 1ST
XLK
▾
HIGH
Long-term yields rise on inflation/debt.
Higher long-term bond yields are a real signal rather than noise: inflation expectations are ticking up, PCE is above 3.5%, the same yield move is visible in Western Europe and Japan, and U.S. debt/deficits are putting pressure on benchmark rates, especially the 10-year Treasury yield.
10-year U.S. Treasury Yield LONG
AI infrastructure investment boom accelerates.
In the Jackson Hole clip, Kevin Walsh argues AI progress is faster than expected, the potential for substantially higher growth is rising, and ever-expanding pools of capital are pouring into AI-related infrastructure of all sorts, with token sales for leading AI labs up 500% year over year.
AI-related infrastructure LONG
High oil prices boost energy profits.
Higher gasoline and diesel prices are a real cost pressure that will feed into inflation, and the energy sector is a net beneficiary with opportunities and high profits for oil companies even as consumers pay more.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
AI boom carries railway-like bust risk.
AI resembles past transformative booms such as railways and the internet: the technology may be real, but boom-bust cycles, unsustainable financial structures, round-tripping of capital, and disclosure gaps mean investors should keep the risk of a bust in mind.
XLK WATCH
China's automation push hurts its economy.
China's policy preference for automation and robots is running ahead of its labor market, contributing to high youth unemployment and removing lower rungs of development; China is not doing itself any favors with this approach.
FXI AVOID
AI boom pushes chip prices higher.
The AI boom is an inflation shock that is pushing up semiconductor and chip prices, feeding into supply chains.
SMH LONG
Fed likely hikes rates in December.
The Fed is likely to defer rate hikes until December because the October FOMC meeting is right before midterm elections, then likely raise rates as inflationary pressure builds; a half-point hike is possible but depends on data and market pressure.
Federal Funds Rate LONG
Dollar faces inflation-driven depreciation.
Inflationary pressure, the temptation to inflate away debt, and running the economy too hot will tend to depreciate the dollar, so the U.S. dollar faces headwinds even though there is no immediate reserve-currency alternative.
UUP SHORT
HIGH
17:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
SNOW 1ST
HPE 1ST
BNO 1ST
DE 1ST
XLV 1ST
▾
HIGH
Snowflake benefits from AI-driven growth.
Snowflake is positioned as one of the big AI beneficiaries within software. Results confirmed strong AI tailwinds, strong adoption of AI products, and a robust outlook, and because software stocks were beaten down this year there is room for continued upside.
SNOW LONG
HPE report underwhelms high expectations.
HPE earnings were not bad but underwhelmed relative to the high expectations already embedded after the stock's strong run and Dell's blowout forecast. The market treated the report as disappointing even though nothing looked broken, leaving the stock under pressure.
HPE AVOID
Iran conflict keeps crude oil elevated.
Oil prices remain elevated because, despite official reassurances about US escorts, shippers are reluctant to use the Strait of Hormuz on fears of attacks and mines. The lack of a real resolution in the strait keeps energy prices supported even if the administration says flows are protected.
BNO LONG
Deere upgraded on replacement cycle.
Evercore is turning bullish on agricultural machinery names because farmers are nearing a replacement cycle for agricultural equipment. The upgrade supports a long view on Deere based on the replacement cycle.
DE LONG
Diversify into healthcare and international equities.
With elevated yields, investors should stay more diversified and give attention to unloved parts of the equity market. US healthcare and international developed markets have distinct but interesting stories, good cash flow, and diversification benefits.
XLV LONG
International developed equities LONG
Europe offers infrastructure and dividend diversification.
Europe faces energy import and Iran-war headwinds, but it has a distinct infrastructure-focused fiscal spending driver. More than half of long-run European international returns have come from dividends, giving the region a downside yield cushion and good diversification value.
VGK LONG
Still favor semis, Mag7, software.
AI leadership is evolving, but the team still likes hardware and semis. They took profits early in the summer and have added back select Magnificent Seven names and software, while staying nimble because the market can get overextended on both sides of hardware and software.
SMH LONG
MAGS LONG
Rotate into beaten-down software names.
Software stocks have been beaten down all year, but major software names such as Salesforce and Microsoft are now reporting positive results and growth forecasts. With many software names trading at compressed multiples relative to their histories, this offers an opportunity to rotate back into software after chips have already done well.
IGV LONG
BWH sees resilient travel demand.
Travel demand is resilient and deliberate. BWH saw a strong summer with stays up 4.3% and average daily rate up, while midscale and upper-midscale brands benefit from trading down. Loyalty contribution rose 5.7%, luxury is doing well, and World Cup and 250th anniversary cities saw 24% growth.
BWH LONG
Elliott wants buybacks at Deutsche Telekom.
Elliott Management opposes Deutsche Telekom's plan to merge with T-Mobile US and instead wants the company to use cash reserves for buybacks and other shareholder-return improvements. The activist push favors Deutsche Telekom over the ambitious, approval-heavy merger.
DTEGY LONG
Nvidia expands into open-source AI software.
Nvidia's nearly $13 billion Hugging Face acquisition is its largest ever and expands exposure to the software side of the AI ecosystem. Hugging Face is a central hub for open-source large language models, and the market is optimistic because this gives Nvidia a stronger position in the AI software and model-sharing ecosystem.
NVDA LONG
Private credit redemption anxiety remains.
Private credit funds are performing well and returns are holding up, but investors cannot shake fears about AI disruption and its potential long-lasting impact on credit markets. Redemption gates are part of the structure to protect remaining investors, but the liquidity mismatch remains a key watchpoint.
BX WATCH
Broadcom's strong quarter not enough.
Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue is expected to double by 2027 and reach $230 billion by 2028, but that still is not at Nvidia's scale. Customer concentration is a concern because Anthropic is expected to overtake Google as the biggest customer and OpenAI becomes number two, leaving Broadcom dependent on a small group of AI labs.
AVGO AVOID
S&P upside limited after priced-in rally.
The equity market will remain volatile, but the direction and travel are constructive because earnings breadth is strong across sector, region, and market cap. Upward revisions and visibility on AI investments from hyperscalers are creating a positive corporate feedback loop.
SPY WATCH
HIGH
17:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY 1ST
QUAL 1ST
SKYY
International developed equities
VGK 1ST
▾
HIGH
US equities constructive on broad earnings strength
She expects continued ping-pong volatility under the surface, with stock-level dispersion the widest in two decades, but the direction of travel for equities is constructive because earnings strength is broad by sector, region and market cap, revisions are rising, and AI-driven ROI is becoming a positive corporate investment loop that supports the equity market.
SPY LONG
Prefer quality businesses with pricing power
With higher yields, certain market segments and companies with weaker balance sheets are more rate-sensitive, so she wants to be thoughtful and own quality businesses with fortress balance sheets and pricing power that can be more durable and resilient.
QUAL LONG
Hyperscaler financing safe; valuation is risk
She does not think hyperscalers face a financing risk from higher rates because they view returns on AI investment as far superior to higher bond yields; the bigger risk is valuation, along with rate-sensitive and weaker-balance-sheet parts of the market.
SKYY WATCH
International developed equities are interesting diversifier
International developed equities are interesting because they have outperformed the US for 18 months, offer a distinct but equally exciting story that complements AI, and have a good cash-flow story that helps diversify portfolios and make them more resilient.
International developed equities LONG
Europe offers fiscal infrastructure and dividends
Despite energy-import and war risks, Europe has a large infrastructure and fiscal spending focus that is a distinct secular growth driver, and dividends have historically supplied more than half of Europe/international developed returns, providing downside yield and diversification even if growth is lower.
VGK LONG
Still like semiconductors and AI hardware
AI leadership will remain dynamic, but she still likes hardware and semis as a multi-year conviction; the team took profits in semis early in the summer, added back to Mag 7 names, software, and semis as moves got overextended, and still wants nimble trading around AI hardware and software chop.
SMH LONG
HIGH
16:45
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
NVDA
CRWD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia benefits from open-source AI scale.
Nvidia is acquiring Hugging Face for $12.93 billion because open-source AI models are now sufficiently good and growing fast, and Hugging Face's scale of 200,000 enterprise customers, 18 million developers, and 3 million models gives Nvidia an open-model growth engine beyond cloud service providers, which represent only half of Nvidia's business. Jensen says the price is worth every penny and the deal is great for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
CrowdStrike gains from Nvidia open-model cybersecurity.
CrowdStrike's partnership with Nvidia uses Nvidia's open models, such as Nemotron, to create a frontier AI cybersecurity defender. Jensen says this is the first step and that more open-model cybersecurity collaborations are coming, positioning CrowdStrike as an early beneficiary.
CRWD LONG
HIGH
16:33
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
NVDA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia acquisition adds distribution and hedging.
Nvidia's $13 billion acquisition of Hugging Face makes sense because Nvidia is buying the place where developers decide which model to run, giving it distribution and topline, accelerating open source growth, and hedging against closed labs that build their own chips.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
16:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Pablo Gil
3h
Global sovereign long-duration bonds
UK 10-Year Gilt
German 10-year Bund
French 10-year OAT
Japanese 10-year JGB
▾
HIGH
Global long-term sovereign yields breaking higher.
Long-term sovereign yields are rising simultaneously across major developed economies, so this is not one country's problem. The sovereign bond is the base price of money for mortgages, corporate financing, real estate credit and equity valuations. The market is questioning future debt volume, inflation persistence and government credibility, not just central bank policy.
Global sovereign long-duration bonds SHORT
UK gilts target higher yields.
The UK 10-year gilt yield has broken 4.85% and is approaching 5%, a level where the market starts to question how long the government can sustain high deficits before interest payments absorb a growing share of the budget. Technical structure points to targets near the 6.5% area, leaving gilts vulnerable to further price declines.
UK 10-Year Gilt SHORT
German bund yields target 4%.
Germany's 10-year bund yield has exceeded 3%, after years when investors accepted negative yields for safety. The chart structure points to additional rises toward 4%, so Bund prices remain vulnerable.
German 10-year Bund SHORT
French OAT yields approaching 4%.
France's 10-year OAT yield has broken above 3.55-3.60% and is approaching 4%. The market is pricing persistent deficits, public debt above 110% of GDP and political difficulty adjusting spending, so OAT prices face continued pressure.
French 10-year OAT SHORT
Japanese JGB yields rising sharply.
Japan is the most spectacular regime change: after decades of zero rates, deflation and massive BOJ debt purchases, the 10-year JGB yield approaches 3% while 20- and 30-year yields are near or above 4%. Longer maturities are commanding a higher premium, signaling further JGB price weakness.
Japanese 10-year JGB SHORT
Japanese 30-year JGB SHORT
US long Treasuries breaking higher yields.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has broken above 5.2%, clearing a multi-year resistance zone. Long maturities embed inflation, fiscal risk, term premium and uncertainty about lending for decades; the market is demanding more compensation to lock up money long-term. That is the cleanest message of rising long-end yields.
TLT SHORT
Avoid expensive AI-linked equities.
AI can transform the economy, but some AI-linked equities may deliver disappointing returns if investors paid too much for them. The higher the valuation and the greater the sensitivity to a rising discount rate, the more risk those companies face.
High-valuation AI stocks AVOID
Avoid excessive bond duration.
Rising yields hurt existing long-duration bondholders but improve expected returns for new buyers. Since the adjustment may not be over and yields may break new resistance, investors should distinguish earning an attractive coupon from taking excessive duration.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
Avoid debt-heavy real estate/infrastructure.
AI is becoming an unexpected competitor for capital, electricity, land and financing capacity. Highly indebted traditional real estate and infrastructure projects will need to prove sufficient returns to survive a higher cost of money, leaving the sector exposed.
Listed real estate and infrastructure AVOID
Gold favorable long-term; buy corrections.
The combination of growing debt, persistent deficits and doubts about fiat currencies remains favorable for gold over the long term. However, spikes in real yields can produce important short-term corrections that may become big buying opportunities.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
TSLA
▾
MED
Cybercab deployment evidence key for Tesla stock
Tesla's Austin Cybercab event is a key stock catalyst because Morgan Stanley's Tesla analyst said tangible evidence of commercial deployment tends to be an important differentiator for Tesla stock performance at past events; with the stock already up about 28% over the past month from under $300, the reaction depends on whether Elon Musk provides concrete deployment markers rather than just influencer demos.
TSLA WATCH
MED
16:11
Sep 03
Sep 03
Macro Voices
3h
Advanced nuclear energy
Data center nuclear power
Small modular reactors
URA
Supercritical CO2 turbines
▾
HIGH
Hyperscaler PPAs make advanced nuclear financeable.
Hyperscalers and data center builders are creating the conditions for a nuclear renaissance by signing 20-year PPAs around $100 per megawatt hour, something utilities could not do. This creates order books for a dozen or more reactors, provides secure offtake, makes projects financeable, and makes the data center market the most attractive return opportunity for advanced nuclear deployment, with smaller reference reactors expected online around 2028-2029 and cost reductions into the early 2030s.
Advanced nuclear energy LONG
Data center nuclear power LONG
Factory mass production makes reactors cheap.
Erik argues that factory mass production, especially assembly-line manufacturing with robotics, is the single most important thing needed to make nuclear reactors cheaper and faster. He distinguishes true mass production from mere offsite factory fabrication and argues it will do for nuclear reactors what Henry Ford did for automobiles, eventually making nuclear energy cheaper than fossil fuels.
Small modular reactors LONG
Existing US nuclear capacity can expand fastest.
The nuclear fuel supply chain needs significant capacity investment because uranium conversion is highly concentrated, the sole US conversion plant is old, and much current capacity is in Russia; there are executive orders to exit Russian conversion supply by 2028, but no current alternative. This supports a buildout of Western uranium conversion, enrichment, and fuel-cycle capacity.
URA LONG
Supercritical CO2 turbines boost power efficiency.
Supercritical CO2 turbine cycles can operate at higher pressures, shrink turbine equipment, and reach efficiencies around 50%, versus about 30% for conventional steam turbines. That makes them well suited to small nuclear plants, enables mass manufacturing, and can be added as bottoming cycles to existing assets to unlock another 10-20% of power generation.
Supercritical CO2 turbines LONG
Lasers are future uranium enrichment technology.
Laser enrichment is emerging as a potentially more efficient next-generation uranium enrichment technology because lasers can selectively excite uranium-235 versus uranium-238, requiring fewer units. She cites General Matter's updated centrifuge work, GLE's laser separation, and Hexium's lithium-metal laser route as candidates to modernize enrichment.
Laser uranium enrichment LONG
Silicon carbide unlocks smaller power electronics.
Silicon carbide has become cheap thanks to electric vehicle demand and is now moving into power control devices, wide bandgap semiconductors, fuel cladding, and solid state transformers. Its high-voltage switching, thermal tolerance, and small device footprint are enabling lower-cost, smaller power management and grid equipment, and Carly's fund is looking at plays in this space.
Silicon carbide LONG
Wide bandgap semiconductors LONG
Solid state transformers modernize data center grids.
Grid interconnection for data centers is a bottleneck because AI training loads can swing from 80% to 20% within seconds while the grid requires smooth demand. Solid state transformers, rack-level power management devices, and virtual power plants that aggregate demand are being developed to standardize and scale data center grid connections, reducing lead times from years to months or weeks.
Solid-state transformers LONG
Data center power management LONG
Critical materials supply chains are stressed.
Upstream material production is a major opportunity because rare earth refining, mining, and magnet production are concentrated outside the US, aluminum refining largely left the US, and bringing new copper and aluminum mines online is slow. Her fund is focused on technologies that shorten these timelines for grid and manufactured products.
REMX LONG
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
Geothermal drilling technologies unlock subsurface heat.
Geothermal activity is set to increase as better subsurface characterization, modeling, and drilling technology improve access to 400-degree heat closer to loads. Companies like Fervo and Quaise are working on the drilling and subsurface challenges, and there are material opportunities in drill bits and thermally conductive materials, though power density and cost still need to improve.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY LONG
Fusion power arrives by mid-2030s.
Carly expects fusion power plants to be operational in the early-to-mid 2030s, roughly when many new fission SMRs arrive, because HTS magnets, high-power lasers, and simulation have dramatically improved and fusion can avoid uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, decommissioning, and waste costs, potentially making fusion cheaper than fission.
Nuclear fusion LONG
HTS magnets and lasers enable fusion.
Fusion's acceleration is driven by enabling technologies: high-temperature superconducting magnets have shrunk magnetic fusion devices from stadium scale to house scale, while laser technology from ASML, Star Wars programs, and solid-state diode lasers has driven down the cost per watt. Companies like Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Thea Energy, Examer, and Focused Energy are examples across integrated plants and enablers.
High-temperature superconducting magnets LONG
High-power laser technology LONG
Industrial robotics automate dangerous physical work.
In robotics, Carly's fund focuses on non-humanoid industrial form factors used in dangerous, remote, or difficult tasks, where she sees the most penetration. Applications include shipbuilding, decommissioning, construction, and autonomous crop dusting, with companies like Pyka and Fort Robotics; she believes humanoid home robots are still five-plus years away.
Industrial robotics LONG
HIGH
16:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
BNO
WTI
FXY 1ST
CAD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Earnings keep equity bull market intact.
The primary equity uptrend remains intact because earnings will ultimately support the market; valuations have reset lower while earnings estimates keep being revised higher, and a single quarter-point Fed move is manageable, whereas a series of hikes would be the real risk.
SPY LONG
Iran escalation keeps oil risk premium.
The ongoing Iran conflict places repeated upward pressure on oil prices, and the chance of escalation rises after the midterms as political pressure fades; global spare capacity keeps prices around the $90s rather than $120 or higher, but low inventories and stretched diesel markets keep the risk premium persistent.
BNO WATCH
WTI WATCH
BOJ hikes will strengthen yen.
BOJ rate hikes are the only sustainable way left to reverse yen weakness; officials are expected to signal a more aggressive hiking path, which is driving an unwind of extreme yen short positions and supports further yen strength.
FXY LONG
CAD and CHF become carry funders.
A larger yen carry unwind would shift funding to currencies where central banks are least likely to hike; she thinks the Canadian dollar and Swiss franc become the next preferred carry funders, implying they should weaken.
CAD SHORT
CHF SHORT
Buy Brazil real after election risk.
She likes the Brazilian real as a long-term carry trade but would wait until after the second round of the presidential election because headline risk makes the period before every election the worst time to be long.
BRL WATCH
South African rand has more upside.
South African rand is a favored carry currency for clients because it has more room to outperform, is well diversified by commodities, and benefits from ticking commodity prices.
ZAR LONG
Mexican peso is too crowded.
The Mexican peso is looking crowded, implying less attractive risk/reward and vulnerability relative to other carry currencies.
MXN AVOID
Hated bonds are attractive now.
Bonds are deeply hated and yields have become attractive at 5-6%; she suggests leaning into the intermediate/belly of the Treasury curve rather than staying in cash-like short maturities because higher yields have a self-limiting effect on the economy and investors tend to hate bonds right before they love them.
US Treasuries (5-10 year) LONG
Ten-year yields fall toward 4%.
He sees fair value for 10-year Treasury yields around 4% and a near-term equilibrium around 4.5%, below current levels; inflation softness in housing and goods supports lower yields and supports the long end.
10-Year US Treasury LONG
Semiconductors could drop another 10%.
AI capex is entering a late-stage cycle and the economy may be too small to justify all the spending; semiconductors are the most vulnerable part of the market and could fall another 10% as investors shift focus to 2028 sustainability.
SOC SHORT
Consumer spending rebound supports retail.
Consumer spending is stronger than the July retail sales slowdown suggested; August spending normalized back to near 8% year-over-year retail sales growth, with participation across income levels, supporting US consumer-facing equities.
XLY LONG
AI revenue acceleration overpowers higher rates.
AI-related revenue acceleration for hyperscalers is strong enough to override higher-rate pressure for now; a nine percentage point increase in revenue growth is huge and is what the equity market is hinging on.
AI/hyperscaler equities LONG
Higher rates cap AI stock valuations.
Higher rates raise borrowing costs and will put pressure on AI stock multiples, capping valuations even if AI capex plans continue; he would look for companies with independent earnings upside.
AIQ AVOID
HIGH
15:51
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
3h
NTAP
▾
HIGH
Record quarter, raised outlook, strong momentum.
NetApp had a record-setting fiscal Q1, beating on revenue and EPS, with revenue up 30% YoY and all-flash/high-performance storage up 47% YoY. The company substantially raised its full-year outlook and saw strength across every customer size, industry, and geography. Product gross margin beat was driven by a richer mix of software and higher-performance configurations.
NTAP LONG
HIGH
15:50
Sep 03
Sep 03
Macro Voices
3h
Advanced nuclear energy
Small modular reactors
Microreactors
NLR 1ST
URA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hyperscaler PPAs unlock nuclear renaissance.
Hyperscalers and data center builders are now willing to sign 20-year $100 per megawatt hour PPAs, creating order books and secure offtake that make advanced nuclear projects financable and open the nuclear renaissance.
Advanced nuclear energy LONG
Mass-produced SMRs cut nuclear costs.
Mass manufacturing reactor components and small shippable reactor units can shrink lead times from years to months and drive nuclear costs down to compete with diesel first and later other generation; reference plants by 2028 or 2029 start this cost curve.
Small modular reactors LONG
Microreactors replace remote diesel generators.
Advanced microreactors can replace large diesel generator sets at remote mining and Arctic installations, eliminating weekly fuel flights and creating large cost savings even though that niche is smaller than data centers.
Microreactors LONG
US needs exportable reactor model.
Global nuclear construction is split between Chinese and Russian designs, while the US lacks a proven on-time, on-budget reactor model; getting a US reference microreactor built creates a pathway to larger exportable US reactors.
NLR LONG
Restart old nuclear plants fastest.
Uranium conversion capacity is highly concentrated, with much capacity in Russia and only one old US plant; executive orders require exiting Russian conversion supply by 2028 but no alternative yet exists, so companies filling the gap are well positioned.
URA LONG
Laser enrichment may dominate uranium enrichment.
Laser enrichment can selectively excite U-235 rather than both isotopes, making enrichment much more efficient than gas centrifuges; GLE and Hexium are pursuing laser and lithium routes, so laser enrichment is likely the future though not fully proven.
Uranium enrichment LONG
Supercritical CO2 turbines boost efficiency.
Supercritical CO2 power cycles allow higher pressures, much smaller turbine equipment, mass manufacturing, and up to 50% thermal efficiency; bottoming cycles can add another 10% to 20% more power generation from existing assets.
Supercritical CO2 turbines LONG
Fusion could undercut fission by 2030s.
Fusion power plants could be operational in the early to mid 2030s, around the same time as larger SMRs, and should cost less than fission because hydrogen fuel eliminates uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and storage; HTS magnets and lasers have dramatically shrunk devices.
Nuclear fusion LONG
Fusion enabling tech and superconducting magnets.
Both integrated fusion power plant developers and enabling component suppliers are attractive; high-temperature superconducting magnets and laser technologies are key, and Spinner Energy applies superconducting magnets to data center and grid power transfer.
Fusion enabling technologies LONG
High-temperature superconducting magnets LONG
Silicon carbide enables compact power electronics.
Silicon carbide became cheap thanks to electric vehicle scale and enables small, high-voltage, thermally tolerant power devices; it is important for solid-state transformers, grid interconnections, and nuclear cladding, with wafering advances like Halo Industries.
Silicon carbide LONG
Wide bandgap semiconductors LONG
Copper and aluminum supply chains tight.
Copper and aluminum are critical for the electric grid and manufactured components; US aluminum refining largely disappeared and new mine timelines are scary, so shrinking timelines and adding supply is a key opportunity.
COPPER LONG
Aluminum LONG
Solid-state transformers cut interconnection lead times.
Transformers are a limiting grid interconnection component; companies are mass manufacturing solid-state transformers using silicon carbide to cut lead times from years to weeks or months, which is essential to connect more nuclear and data center power.
Solid-state transformers LONG
Rare earths and magnets attractive.
Upstream material production for the electric grid and energy hardware, including rare earth element refining, mining, and magnet production, is an attractive opportunity as new energy and grid equipment scales.
REMX LONG
800V data centers need power management.
Nvidia's 800V data center distribution roadmap and the scale of one megawatt per cabinet create a need for low-cost, standardized rack-level power management and smooth grid interfaces because AI training loads swing violently.
Data center power management LONG
Virtual power plants reduce peak load.
Aggregating flexible demand into virtual power plants can reduce peak load and behave like a real power plant, reducing the need to build additional generation capacity.
Virtual power plants LONG
Geothermal depends on deep drilling advances.
Geothermal is attracting more activity and could reach 5 to 7 cents per kilowatt hour if deep drilling and power density improve; Quaise is working on cost-effective deep drilling near load, and drill-bit materials are a cross-industry opportunity.
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY LONG
Industrial robotics dominate near term.
Industrial robotics in dangerous, remote, or difficult tasks is seeing the most penetration now, including crop dusting via Pyka, shipbuilding, decommissioning, and construction, while home humanoid robots are five-plus years out; robotic safety remains key.
Industrial robotics LONG
Humanoid robotics WATCH
HIGH
15:40
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
4h
BTC
GLD
UNI
HOOD
LIT
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin bullish above 79k.
Crypto and Bitcoin are following gold's 2% breakout. He is bullish if Bitcoin clears mid-$79k and then $82k, which would confirm 'go time' and a bull-market leg. He later adds Q4 is a 'guaranteed bottom' and the market is in a bull trend.
BTC LONG
Gold ripping amid macro uncertainty.
Gold is up 2% and putting in a striking candle. Macro is bad and Fed/Warsh are in a rate trap, so gold is going nuts and looks amazing.
GLD LONG
Uniswap benefits from Robinhood chain.
Uniswap's chart looks unbelievable; he caught a prior breakout and sees it as a huge beneficiary of Robinhood chain activity.
UNI LONG
Robinhood stock leverages crypto chain revenue.
Robinhood's chain did $4M in fees in one day, annualizing near $1.4B or about 25% of total company revenue, making HOOD a crypto proxy. The stock is up 8-14% on crypto flows, not just Trump accounts, and he thinks it can really go.
HOOD LONG
Fed September no-change odds are bullish.
He bet heavily on no Fed rate move in September; odds rose from 44% to 55-62%. Waller leans hold. If the Fed does nothing after hawkish talk, risk markets can rally; if it hikes, both Fed and Treasury are trapped.
FOMC September no-change LONG
Brent crude is breaking higher.
Brent crude is around $98 and about to break $100 as war and inflation rage; oil is going parabolic and rates are reacting to it.
BNO LONG
Solana losing activity to Robinhood.
Solana is getting 'mogged' by Robinhood chain; Pump.fun fee activity is at its lowest since August while on-chain activity is elsewhere, and Solana's high fees hurt small memecoin traders. He does not declare Solana dead but sees near-term pressure and a need for a new narrative.
SOL AVOID
Circle looks strong with crypto.
Circle stock is up 7% and looks pretty good as a crypto proxy; it is ripping with crypto.
USDC LONG
Robinhood chain attracts OG crypto capital.
Robinhood chain is becoming the new on-chain speculative center; OG crypto traders who ignored Solana are returning, TVL is still low, and meme-stock tokenization is a new game. He is buying Robinhood coins and highlights leaders Pawns, CashCat, and AI.
Pawns LONG
CASHCAT LONG
AI LONG
Pump remains his core long.
He is heavily long Pump and has not sold any; Pump is the biggest alt gainer, has app/buyer-base advantages, and if Bitcoin breaks out, Pump should lead again. He plans to trim some but hold the rest.
PUMP LONG
Zcash privacy narrative and chart breakout.
Zcash has a diehard outside-crypto buyer base tied to surveillance-state fears and private money; he sees it as a reflexive, Lindy narrative asset. The chart reclaimed his 880 entry and he expects a nuclear move.
ZEC LONG
Anomcoin benefits from top trader narrative.
Anomcoin is likely the savior narrative for Solana because top trader Anom is the cycle's social-trading narrative; if Bitcoin rips, Anomcoin could go to $1B. He says the coin should do very well.
ANOM LONG
Hyperliquid has non-crypto demand.
Hyperliquid is one of the few coins with a buyer base and use case outside crypto; it was a top pick for that reason.
HYPE LONG
Anthropic pre-IPO markets could be monster.
Anthropic pre-IPO perp open interest surpassed $10M; if this market really catches, it could be a monster. He is watching it as a pre-IPO trading area.
Anthropic pre-IPO WATCH
HIGH
15:27
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
4h
SNOW
▾
HIGH
AI flywheel drives Snowflake growth.
Snowflake's AI flywheel is accelerating: more data is moving to Snowflake because having data on Snowflake makes it AI-ready, and Snowflake's AI products help customers get value quickly, which drives new customers and new data. The company posted $1.49 billion in product revenue, up 37% year over year.
SNOW LONG
HIGH
15:02
Sep 03
Sep 03
WEALTH 1ST
▾
MED
Customization demand benefits wealth management firms.
Customization and tax management are becoming table stakes for serving high-net-worth clients; most high-net-worth investors expect customized portfolios and proactive tax reduction, and asset/wealth managers are investing in scalable technology and fractional shares to extend these strategies to mass affluent clients.
WEALTH LONG
MED
14:35
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
5h
U.S. Treasury complex
▾
MED
Treasury curve bull steepening as yields drop
Treasury yields are falling across the curve and the market is bull steepening, with short-end yields dropping faster than long-end yields after Waller from the Fed shifted rate expectations; all maturity yields are lower on the day.
U.S. Treasury complex WATCH
MED
14:28
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
5h
SNOW 1ST
DDOG 1ST
NOW 1ST
CRM
AVGO 1ST
▾
MED
Snowflake rallies on strong quarterly results
Snowflake shares surged more than 20% in early trading after reporting strong quarterly results.
SNOW LONG
Snowflake rally lifts Datadog, ServiceNow, Salesforce
Snowflake's strong results and 20% rally are lifting software peers including Datadog, ServiceNow, and Salesforce, signaling positive read-through for software names.
DDOG LONG
NOW LONG
CRM LONG
Broadcom slips on weak revenue forecast
Broadcom shares slipped as investors reacted negatively to the chipmaker's fourth-quarter revenue forecast.
AVGO AVOID
Nvidia's Hugging Face deal scales open AI
Cramer applauds Nvidia buying Hugging Face because the US needs its own open-model ecosystem to blunt Chinese progress; he says the deal is asymmetric because AMD or Broadcom buying Hugging Face would have been sold off, and Nvidia avoiding a lost bidding war preserves its perceived edge in open AI.
NVDA LONG
MED
14:21
Sep 03
Sep 03
IHI 1ST
European cybersecurity
European critical infrastructure
▾
HIGH
Europe must boost defense spending
Martin argues that Russia's aggression and increasing recklessness, combined with a shifting US posture, are forcing the European Union to do far more on security and defense capability. He says Europe has major gaps in self-reliance and that eastern flank states view Russia as an existential threat, supporting stronger European defense spending.
IHI LONG
Europe must invest in cybersecurity infrastructure
Martin says security has a broad economic dimension that includes critical infrastructure such as energy interconnectors, subsea cables, and cybersecurity, and that Europe needs more investment and collaboration to counter sophisticated hybrid threats.
European cybersecurity LONG
European critical infrastructure LONG
HIGH
14:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
5h
Philadelphia 76ers
Stadium-anchored real estate development
Los Angeles Lakers
Private equity minority sports investments
Youth sports events and tournaments
▾
HIGH
LeBron signing boosts Sixers franchise value.
Josh Harris says LeBron James chose Philadelphia because he thought he could win and spend the final chapter of his career there; the signing immediately energized the city, sold out tickets, and opened sponsorship opportunities, strengthening the 76ers franchise.
Philadelphia 76ers LONG
Stadium-anchored real estate creates long-term value.
Harris believes sports-anchored real estate is a major value driver: he is making the largest private investment in Washington with a $4 billion stadium development and over the next decade building thousands of housing units, hotels, restaurants, and similar mixed-use development in Philadelphia with Comcast.
Stadium-anchored real estate development LONG
Lakers worth every bit of $12.5 billion.
Harris argues the Lakers at $12.5 billion are not an overpay because the franchise went from about $10 billion 14 months ago to $12.5 billion now, roughly 25% growth in line with sports franchise appreciation, and the Lakers are one of the existential NBA franchises in the biggest media market with scarcity value.
Los Angeles Lakers LONG
Private equity increasingly lifts sports values.
Harris highlights private equity's influx into minority sports team stakes as a new source of demand and liquidity, reducing illiquidity and letting investors participate, which supports continued growth in sports franchise values.
Private equity minority sports investments LONG
Youth sports demand exceeds supply.
Harris sees youth sports as a growth industry because demand for tournaments exceeds supply; his group provides tournaments, coaching, better food and lodging, and inclusive access, creating both social value and economic value.
Youth sports events and tournaments LONG
Sports franchise values are not a bubble.
Harris does not see a bubble in sports team valuations; he points to expected revenue and cash-flow growth, scarcity value similar to art or beachfront real estate, very low required cap rates, and strong demand from buyers.
Sports franchise valuations LONG
Commanders at $6 billion looks attractive.
Harris says the Commanders purchase at $6 billion, which was criticized as the highest price ever, now looks like an attractive deal as NFL team valuations have climbed above $10-12 billion and he expects values to keep going.
Washington Commanders LONG
HIGH
13:37
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
QUAL 1ST
Value stocks
Mid-cap equities
Low-quality/momentum stocks
▾
HIGH
Stocks still constructive on extraordinary earnings.
The firm remains very constructive on stocks because earnings power is extraordinary, even after four straight years of the strongest bull run in history and massive wealth appreciation.
SPY LONG
Rotate into quality value mid caps.
After a period dominated by low-quality, high-momentum and junkier stocks, she recommends peeling back at the margin and leaning into quality and value, including mid caps, which have underperformed and are among the most hated parts of the market.
QUAL LONG
Value stocks LONG
Mid-cap equities LONG
Low-quality/momentum stocks AVOID
Favor intermediate bonds over short and long.
She favors moving into the intermediate part of the Treasury curve, rather than staying in money markets/ultra-short bonds or taking excess long-end volatility in 30-year Treasuries. She sees an upside ceiling in yields because mortgage rates near 7%, weak housing, firmer oil prices, and higher U.S. yields versus the rest of the world are self-limiting forces.
Intermediate-term Treasuries LONG
TLT LONG
Money market funds/ultra-short bonds AVOID
Strong corporate demand faces issuance liquidity test.
Demand for corporate bonds has never been stronger and corporate credit may be less risky than government debt, but massive hyperscaler debt/equity issuance is colliding with central banks removing liquidity, creating a key test for corporate bond demand.
LQD WATCH
HIGH
13:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
196170.KQ
KBE
▾
HIGH
KOSPI short sellers retreating; September weak-strong
The current KOSPI decline is qualitatively different from July because the KOSPI stock borrow balance is falling, which indicates short sellers are reducing downside bets; in July the borrow balance surged before the sharp drop. With downside short supply retreating, he expects a weak-early, strong-late September and says investors should watch borrow balance and short-selling data as a leading indicator rather than assume another July-style selloff.
EWY WATCH
Hold Samsung and SK Hynix until December
Medium- and long-term investors should hold Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix toward December as long as their July lows hold; by December he expects prices to be higher than now. Short-term weakness should be hedged with inverse ETFs rather than selling, but if the July lows break, positions should be cut because the whole market would be at risk.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Alteogen shows clear short-selling downside pressure
Alteogen's short-selling ratio has repeatedly reached double-digit levels around 10-12%, including consecutive prints, indicating short sellers have clearly been building downside exposure in the stock. He uses it as a specific example of a stock where short-selling supply pressure is visible.
196170.KQ WATCH
Accumulate Korean banks before October rate trade
He is adding Korean bank stocks now because they are part of the rate and inflation benefit trade and should be accumulated before October; banks have not run much yet, so he is increasing allocation as he reduces semiconductor overweight.
KBE LONG
Reduce AI-derivative power and cable names
He has significantly reduced or closed AI-derivative plays such as power equipment, cable, and related names because if the AI momentum trade produces a final rally, it should be concentrated in semiconductors rather than in secondary AI-theme stocks.
Korean power equipment and cable stocks AVOID
HIGH
13:15
Sep 03
Sep 03
Taiki Maeda
6h
ZEC
BTC
HYPE
LIT
Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens
▾
HIGH
Zcash is asymmetric privacy store-of-value long.
Zcash is a proof-of-work privacy coin with Bitcoin-like 21 million supply and halving cycles. After nearly a decade of distribution and declining inflation, it is breaking out while shielded-pool usage is rising. ZEC is only about 1% of Bitcoin's market cap, with room to close toward a silver-like 10-15% store-of-value role. A spot ETF is live, its quantum roadmap is framed as stronger than Bitcoin, and surviving the Orchard exploit is treated as anti-fragile trust evidence. Taiki holds the majority of his net worth in the trade and argues higher prices reflexively improve privacy capacity and network effects, so $1,000 is not resistance.
ZEC LONG
Crypto bull market early; Bitcoin supported.
Crypto is in the early innings of a bull market because the debasement trade has returned. Gold and Bitcoin pumped after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to buy long-term bonds, and gold-to-Bitcoin correlation hit new all-time highs, signaling non-crypto money now treats Bitcoin as a store of value. Crypto natives are also too bearish and underallocated, so sideline capital should continue supporting Bitcoin and broader crypto upside.
BTC LONG
Within crypto, reallocate to quality assets.
Within crypto, capital is rotating in a K-shaped way away from last cycle's broken infrastructure and VC tokens into good assets: store-of-value assets like Bitcoin and Zcash, and buyback/cash-flow tokens like Hyperliquid and Lighter. These winners can outperform even while Bitcoin chops, so the trade is to own quality assets and avoid dead, over-supplied tokens.
HYPE LONG
LIT LONG
Crypto infrastructure/VC tokens AVOID
HIGH
13:10
Sep 03
Sep 03
10-Year U.S. Treasury
TLT 1ST
JPM 1ST
GS 1ST
MS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long-dated Treasuries are an incredible deal.
The bond bear market is a sentiment-driven 'mind virus': inflation is falling and economic data such as payrolls, JOLTS, and PMI are deteriorating, while the $2 trillion deficit is only about 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010. Everyone measures bond supply but ignores demand; a risk-off event would send money into bonds. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold and calls 5.2-5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal.
10-Year U.S. Treasury LONG
TLT LONG
Financials and broker-dealers are topping.
His top-50 S&P chart review shows financials topping, with broker-dealers looking worst. JP Morgan was a pretty good short, and Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo all look like they are topping.
JPM SHORT
GS SHORT
MS SHORT
WFC SHORT
Semiconductors are topping on growth deceleration.
He sees semiconductor charts as topping and is waiting for Nvidia's second derivative of growth to slow from 70% toward 50-60%, which he says is when these stocks top. Retail investors are heavily concentrated in names like Nvidia and Broadcom, while hedge funds have been crowded long semis.
NVDA SHORT
AMD SHORT
SMH SHORT
Healthcare and JNJ are topping.
His chart work indicates healthcare is topping, and Johnson & Johnson is called out as a topping healthcare name.
XLV AVOID
JNJ AVOID
Intel and Oracle are bottoming.
In the same top-50 S&P chart review, Intel and Oracle look like they are bottoming even though more charts are rolling over than basing.
INTC LONG
ORCL LONG
Copper is least favorite metal.
Copper is his least favorite metal: AI-driven sentiment is hot, the chart is stretched in the upper right, and recent price action has been ugly. He would much rather own gold, silver, and platinum than copper.
COPPER AVOID
Gold cautiously bullish on weakening labor.
Gold rallied 15% in a month and then broke back below its 200-day after Jackson Hole; he doubts the amateur technical call for a retest to 4,000 and is cautiously bullish, especially because deteriorating payrolls will make the Fed dovish and support gold.
GLD LONG
AI is a debt-financed bubble.
He believes AI is a bubble because this is the first cycle he has seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at roughly 6% coupons, for assets that become obsolete in about three years. That leverage dynamic is distinct from the dot-com bubble and creates downside risk for AI/tech.
AI/technology sector AVOID
Equal-weight multi-asset cuts volatility and drawdowns.
He advocates replacing a 100% S&P 500 index-fund portfolio with an equal-weight mix of stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. Historically this gives up only one to two percentage points of return but cuts volatility roughly in half, with a worst drawdown around 12% versus about 40% for the S&P 500.
Equal-weight multi-asset portfolio (stocks/bonds/gold/cash/real estate) LONG
Private credit and PE still bearish.
He remains bearish on private credit and private equity: private-market unwinds lack liquidity, portfolio companies are being held rather than sold, and the bear market has not found a bottom. He sees this as connected to the AI unwind.
BIZD AVOID
PSP AVOID
HIGH
13:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
ARB 1ST
SOL 1ST
Boner 1ST
CINEMA 1ST
Tokenized Equities
▾
HIGH
Robinhood Chain surge benefits Arbitrum.
Robinhood Chain's explosive memecoin and tokenized-stock activity has already driven a rally in Arbitrum because Robinhood Chain is built on the Arbitrum stack, while Ethereum captures only small data-availability fees and little of the transaction economics.
ARB LONG
Memecoin traders are no longer chain loyal.
Most Robinhood Chain users came through FOMO and the app/wallet abstraction has made memecoin traders chain-agnostic, meaning the previous Solana memecoin-trader loyalty is gone and traders will go wherever the app takes them.
SOL AVOID
Stock memecoin depegs reward hedge funds.
Weekend pumps in stock-paired memecoins such as Boner/HIMS and Cinema/AMC cannot achieve a GameStop-style short squeeze because the tokenized stock floats are tiny; the resulting depeg hands guaranteed arbitrage to hedge funds and destroys late retail buyers.
Boner AVOID
CINEMA AVOID
Meme frenzy grows tokenized equity issuance.
The meme frenzy is increasing actual retail-sized tokenized-stock/RWA issuance on Robinhood Chain from almost nothing to about $70-80m, up around 50% week-on-week, and some days stock-token volume exceeds memecoin volume, so the activity may stick and create a new primary venue for tokenized equities.
Tokenized Equities WATCH
Onshore Hyperliquid separate but brand positive.
A Kraken/Bitnomial onshore Hyperliquid will likely be a separate regulated instance with centralized clearing, collateral, surveillance and different liquidation mechanics rather than unified liquidity, but it makes sense for brand expansion and dual offshore/onshore products can both grow, similar to Polymarket US.
HYPE WATCH
HIGH
12:43
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
7h
NVDA
▾
HIGH
Nvidia grows on both AI paths.
The $12.9 billion acquisition of Hugging Face gives Nvidia a strategically important open-model platform with 200,000 enterprise customers, 18 million developers, and 3 million models across AI fields; Jensen says the price is what it is worth, open models are a large growth driver of Nvidia, and scaling the open community faster will be great for Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
HIGH
12:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY
EWJ 1ST
JGBUX FLIP
TLT FLIP
OAT 1ST
▾
MED
Coordinated intervention risk could sharply lift yen
Intervention risk is centered on the 160 level in dollar-yen; the market is nervous and may defend key levels for the Bank of Japan. Unilateral intervention typically fails to create sustained appreciation, but if the US is involved in a more concerted multilateral intervention than last time, it would be more credible because the US has ample dollars, and could trigger a significant yen appreciation.
FXY LONG
GPIF domestic shift could support Japanese assets
The Government Pension Investment Fund's unusual review, prompted by the prime minister's calls to invest more domestically, could shift large Japanese pension assets toward local markets. Japanese equities have become significantly more attractive and Japanese bonds now offer income, and a government-driven allocation shift has historically been large enough to support Japanese assets and the yen.
EWJ LONG
JGBUX LONG
GPIF repatriation could pressure U.S., French bonds
If GPIF and other Japanese pension funds repatriate foreign holdings, they could sell U.S. Treasuries and French government bonds, putting pressure on those markets. France has about 60% foreign ownership of government bonds and more price-sensitive holders, while the US has roughly 25%; Japanese investors have been sticky but could follow a GPIF change.
TLT AVOID
OAT AVOID
MED
12:36
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
USD/JPY term premium could unwind sharply.
A rate-differential model alone puts dollar-yen near 140, but adding a Japanese term premium because the BOJ fell behind the curve gives fair value near 160. If that premium unwinds, it can unwind very quickly, and the move in the last 24 hours shows nervousness that an outsized move from Japan could be very large.
USD/JPY WATCH
HIGH
12:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
N225
Taiwan TAIEX
FXY
USD/JPY
▾
HIGH
Watch Asia basket algorithmic selling.
The 2 p.m. KOSPI drop was not a domestic-only event; Japan and Taiwan moved the same way. The most likely cause was foreign algorithmic selling of a Korea-Taiwan-Japan equity basket, with local derivative arbitrage then amplifying the cash selloff. Investors should treat this as a recurring risk and monitor the Asia basket response instead of panic selling on unexplained sharp drops.
EWY WATCH
N225 WATCH
Taiwan TAIEX WATCH
Watch yen strength as trigger.
The trigger behind the selling was likely yen strength. Japan's 10-year JGB yield has broken above 3%, and BOJ 50bp rate-hike chatter pushed the yen from around 164 to 156, activating yen-carry or NK-trade liquidation. Yu says he does not think a full NK trade occurred today but says this mechanism must be monitored around the 159-157 area.
FXY WATCH
USD/JPY WATCH
Watch Treasury yields for risk signal.
The key macro variable is the US 10-year Treasury yield. Treasury issuance, hyperscaler bond supply, Fed uncertainty, and inflation worries keep long rates elevated; buybacks are only temporary and yields are unlikely to fall all the way to 4.5. He argues investors should watch rates and wait for weak employment, lower CPI, and FOMC signals that the money bottleneck is easing before adding risk.
US10Y WATCH
Prefer insurers and banks over securities.
Current tight money and thin trading volumes favor financial groups that benefit from expensive money and defensive institutional allocation. Yu ranks Korean insurance first, banks second, and securities last; Shinhan Financial Group is making new highs, while Kiwoom Securities has broken moving averages and is resting near its 520-day line because retail trading volume has collapsed.
Korean Insurance Sector LONG
KBE LONG
055550.KS LONG
Korean Securities Sector AVOID
Watch AI share for memory stocks.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix now move with Anthropic and OpenAI market share. If OpenAI takes share from Anthropic, it is not a severe issue because both are core Korean semiconductor customers, but if Chinese open-weight models take AI share, that is a negative since those are not major Korean memory buyers. The Anthropic IPO and third-quarter AI model share data are therefore key watch items for these two stocks.
000660.KS WATCH
005930.KS WATCH
Hyperscaler bonds beat Treasuries.
Hyperscaler corporate bonds yielding about 5.5-5.6% are more attractive than 10-year Treasuries and carry strong credit, so bond investors have little reason to buy government debt; this corporate issuance is crowding out Treasury demand and contributing to upward pressure on long rates.
US Hyperscaler Corporate Bonds LONG
HIGH
12:19
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
7h
Equities
TIP 1ST
GLD 1ST
10-Year Treasury Yield
▾
HIGH
Fed tolerance supports continued equity rally.
The Fed is willing to tolerate inflation at current levels and is unlikely to tighten aggressively; in this inflation-overshoot regime, one or two more rate hikes over the next 12 months do not change the regime and give equity investors a green light to expect a continued rally and continued strong earnings growth.
Equities LONG
Add inflation protection and real assets.
In an inflation-overshoot regime with likely elevated bond market volatility, investors should balance core fixed income exposure with inflation protection and real assets to protect against inflation.
TIP LONG
GLD LONG
Higher bond yields may signal stronger growth.
The bond market selloff is getting a lot of attention, but the 10-year Treasury yield is only up five basis points since early August; higher bond yields could reflect stronger near-term growth or AI productivity showing up in the data, meaning the economy can handle higher rates.
10-Year Treasury Yield WATCH
HIGH
12:16
Sep 03
Sep 03
FXY FLIP
CHF 1ST
DIESEL 1ST
CRAK
AVGO
▾
HIGH
Yen supported by BOJ hike confluence
The yen's sharp strengthening is not intervention but a confluence of the BOJ leaning toward a 25 basis point hike this month, a strong 30-year JGB auction showing demand for Japanese bonds, reports of a large Japanese pension fund reallocating more to domestic bonds sooner, and short covering. A BOJ signal of willingness to move faster would further lift the yen, though he doubts the BOJ will move at a quicker pace.
FXY LONG
Swiss franc gains on earlier hike bets
Swiss CPI exceeded expectations and GDP beat estimates, in line with the Swiss central bank's expected path, leading traders to price an earlier interest rate hike and driving Swiss franc strength after a period of depreciation.
CHF LONG
Refined products tighten on supply disruptions
Global fuel markets are tight because a partially blocked Strait of Hormuz and reduced Gulf refinery exports, plus Russian sanctions and refinery attacks, have cut supplies of diesel and jet fuel to Europe. Diesel refining margins have tripled since the war started, and competition from China and India keeps crude and product flows tight, supporting refined product prices.
DIESEL LONG
CRAK LONG
Broadcom long-term AI growth, short-term bottleneck
Broadcom's near-term guidance disappointed because optical supply-chain bottlenecks are restricting growth, but its massive custom AI chip orders imply growth will double and then double again over the next two fiscal years, driven by Anthropic and OpenAI, with Google becoming only the third-largest customer by fiscal 2028.
AVGO WATCH
Snowflake wins enterprise AI adoption
Snowflake is showing real-world enterprise AI adoption at scale because it runs AI models where corporate data lives and is seeing mass uptake by thousands of clients for its AI assistant, giving it a first-mover and technology-footprint advantage and driving a large premarket market-cap gain.
SNOW LONG
Central banks diversify gold amid US distrust
The Dutch central bank's decision to move gold from New York to London is about declining trust in the US financial system and US policymaking, echoing prior reserve behavior. It highlights gold's role as a reserve asset and supports the idea of central banks diversifying gold holdings outside the US.
GLD WATCH
Stocks can grind higher on macro
Equity markets are not showing real signs of discomfort with current yields, and as long as the macro backdrop stays constructive and supportive, stocks can continue to deliver modest positive gains, though volatility may increase around the midterms.
SPY LONG
Tech/AI trade remains positive but broadening
The tech and AI trade remains positive and investors still want exposure, but gains will likely flatten and broaden out as productivity gains from the AI buildout spread through the economy, making stock-specific analysis more important.
Technology / AI trade LONG
Financials benefit from steepening and AI
Financials and banks are increasingly attractive because they were unloved at the start of the year on Iran war concerns, the macro backdrop has not deteriorated, steepening yield pressure supports bank margins, and financials also benefit from the AI capex buildout.
XLF LONG
KBE LONG
AI issuance keeps Treasury yields elevated
AI-related capital expenditure is yield-agnostic and heavy AI-related issuance is likely to keep coming to market, creating competition for capital and keeping upward pressure on Treasury yields for the foreseeable future. Current yield levels are close to fair value and not at a level that would trigger intervention.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
11:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
EWY
ANTHROPIC 1ST
USD/KRW
APR 1ST
Cosmax
▾
MED
Hold current KOSPI support as opportunity.
The market is in a liquidity-drained sideways range, but he argues that if the KOSPI holds current support without breaking down, low-price buying is emerging and the index offers opportunities; the best scenario for now is sideways resilience.
EWY WATCH
Participate in Anthropic IPO strongly.
Anthropic's IPO is expected in late September or early October and is a must-participate event; he believes it could attract more capital than SpaceX, and the need to fund IPO allocations may already be causing investors to sell existing equities.
ANTHROPIC LONG
Watch USD/KRW for rebound toward 1,400.
After the won's sharp appreciation from the 1,500 area to the 1,320 area, he says it is hard to bet on further won strength and warns of a possible rebound toward 1,400; FX whipsaw also makes foreign investors hesitant to enter Korean stocks.
USD/KRW WATCH
Buy Korean cosmetics on dips.
Korean cosmetics is sensitive to the won but sales are growing about 20% per quarter on exports; after mild pullbacks in APR and Cosmax, the sector remains attractive on dips and is a representative export-growth sector to watch.
APR LONG
Cosmax LONG
Korean cosmetics LONG
Favor six-percent corporate bonds over stocks.
In a weak sideways equity market, AI-related companies are issuing corporate bonds at 6-7% yields to fund data centers; large cash holders may prefer these corporate bonds over stocks, making corporate credit attractive and diverting demand from equities.
US corporate bonds LONG
Construction stocks gain on data center buildout.
Construction stocks are rebounding because data center construction and nuclear power plant needs are becoming new cyclical drivers; GS E&C and the broader construction group showed renewed strength and should be watched as part of AI power/data center infrastructure.
006360.KS LONG
Korean construction sector LONG
Shipbuilding stocks are September catch-up buys.
Shipbuilding stocks have solid earnings but did not rally in August, so September is a catch-up opportunity; among shipyards, Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive because it is not already carrying the specific project expectations embedded in Hanwha Ocean or HD Hyundai Heavy.
010140.KS LONG
Korean Shipbuilding LONG
Strong won may cut semiconductor profit estimates.
The Beige Book shows AI data centers are an actual economic driver, so AI demand remains alive; for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix the current problem is short-term supply/demand positioning rather than fundamentals, so the AI semiconductor thesis does not need to be abandoned.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
US Treasuries face upward yield pressure.
He interprets the Treasury Secretary's and New York Fed president's comments as political rather than reassuring; rising yields reflect fiscal debt burden and supply-driven inflation, and corporate bond supply is crowding out Treasuries, so the US Treasury market faces upward yield pressure.
TLT AVOID
MED
11:21
Sep 03
Sep 03
EEM 1ST
European financials
IEUS 1ST
XLY 1ST
KXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Overweight emerging market equities for growth.
Lombard Odier is overweight equities and sees emerging market equities as attractive given lower valuations and stronger earnings, offering a way to capture resilient global growth and a pro-risk stance.
EEM LONG
European financials benefit from steeper yields.
European equity indices have large financial sector exposure, and steeper yield curves and higher average yields should boost bank interest income, supporting European financials and the broader European equity market.
European financials LONG
Utilities hedge energy scarcity risk.
Utilities have been beaten down by higher interest rates but are a useful way to hedge renewed energy and gas market tension and the broader energy scarcity theme in Europe.
IEUS LONG
Avoid European consumer sectors.
Barclays does not like consumer discretionary or consumer staples because higher energy prices, higher inflation and higher rates are squeezing consumers, so it prefers the investment/CapEx side of the economy.
XLY AVOID
KXI AVOID
Soitec benefits from AI photonics demand.
Soitec raised revenue guidance and is leveraged to photonics, which is an early-stage shift from electrical to optical transmission and is seeing huge incremental demand from AI data centers.
SOITEC LONG
Nokia exposed to AI optics demand.
Nokia has large exposure to the same photonics/optics layer in AI data centers, with an encouraging share price run and AI-related data center connectivity demand.
NOK LONG
Broadcom AI chip sales accelerating.
Broadcom's AI revenue trajectory is supported by its large customers diversifying AI chip supply; the 2028 revenue outlook is roughly 10-15% above consensus, with OpenAI and Anthropic expected to overtake Google as demand drivers.
AVGO LONG
M&G has record earnings and momentum.
M&G reported record first-half results with adjusted operating income up 15%, growth across asset management and life, and visible catalysts including BPA Plus, private markets and cost/income improvement.
M&G LONG
Yen set for sharp appreciation.
The yen is trading far below model fair value around 140; the divergence is sustained by a Japan term premium, and if that premium unwinds or BOJ/intervention catalysts hit, the move can be very large.
FXY LONG
Hormuz supply keeps oil elevated.
Strait of Hormuz crude flows are only about 7 million barrels a day, enough to avoid $100 but not enough to meet all demand, with vessel availability and product constraints keeping crude and US diesel prices elevated.
BNO LONG
US retail diesel LONG
European gas prices likely stay high.
Europe faces a race to rebuild low gas storage, especially Germany at 53%, forcing spot purchases and competition with Asia; this points to elevated European gas prices over the winter even if shortages are avoided.
UNG LONG
Activist pressure unlocks Deutsche Telekom value.
Elliott has built a sizable stake in Deutsche Telekom and wants management to drop a T-Mobile merger and instead boost shareholder value through larger buybacks, creating activist-driven pressure.
DTEGY WATCH
Watches of Switzerland guidance on track.
Watches of Switzerland reiterated full-year guidance, recovering from luxury sector worries and remaining on track with its Rolex showroom pipeline.
WOSG LONG
Eni adds major Venezuelan oil field.
Eni is starting to drill a new Venezuelan oil field with 25 years exclusive access and nearly 35 billion barrels of certified oil, a long-term resource upside despite short-term market pressures.
E WATCH
HIGH
11:08
Sep 03
Sep 03
CNBC
8h
FXY
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
DBC
WTI
Bloomberg AG Index
▾
HIGH
BOJ hawkish hike supports stronger yen
The Bank of Japan is lining up a rate increase on September 18 and will need to talk hawkishly about continued hikes because its overnight rate is only 1% while inflation is running at 2%. The 160 level in dollar-yen has been a line in the sand, and intervention is likely, supporting a stronger yen and dollar weakness against the yen.
FXY LONG
Long-term Treasury yields remain in uptrend
Even if a hawkish BOJ can temporarily calm global long-term rates, the trend in U.S. and European long-term interest rates is still higher because of debts and deficits, competition for capital, and persistent inflation. He watches the 10-year Treasury yield rather than only the Fed because the yield curve is setting the price of money.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield LONG
Full-fledged commodity bull market underway
Boockvar believes we are in a full-fledged commodity bull market, with higher trends across energy, agriculture, precious metals, and industrial metals. That commodity strength is an underlying bid to inflation and complicates the job of central banks.
DBC LONG
WTI crude oil trend remains higher
WTI around $90-92 is still pricing in too lightly that the Iran/U.S. conflict could disrupt supply and that inventory disruptions can be handled. Commercial and strategic reserves and inventories have been drawn down enormously, so the energy price trend is still higher.
WTI LONG
Agricultural commodity rally will continue
The Bloomberg AG Index just touched its highest level since 2023, led by higher corn, wheat, and soybeans, with coffee also moving. Boockvar expects that agricultural price rise to continue and feed persistent inflation.
Bloomberg AG Index LONG
CORN LONG
WEAT LONG
SOYB LONG
KC LONG
Watch if dollar weakness broadens beyond yen
The dollar weakening against the yen may mark the start of broader dollar weakness against other currencies. Boockvar flags this as a key development to watch.
UUP WATCH
HIGH
11:07
Sep 03
Sep 03
034020.KS
196170.KQ
Korean cosmetics
APR
KBE
▾
HIGH
Nuclear stocks may rally further.
A broker report named Doosan Enerbility as the top pick in Korean nuclear power, followed by Hyundai E&C and BH, based on project expectations. Lee agrees and sees room for nuclear-related stocks to rally further, especially Doosan Enerbility.
034020.KS LONG
Alteogen's dip is short-covering buy.
Alteogen has large tech-transfer deals but is falling on heavy short selling. Lee sees support around 270,000 KRW as likely to hold, expects Q3 milestones to beat forecasts, and thinks accumulated shorts could trigger covering; he would buy more if he had cash.
196170.KQ LONG
Sell Korean cosmetics into strength.
Korean cosmetics have been overheated and are entering a correction phase. APR's Singapore product issue is a catalyst for selling pressure, and existing holders should sell into strength; new entrants should wait until the sector turns back up.
Korean cosmetics AVOID
APR AVOID
Prefer banks, avoid securities.
Within financials, Lee prefers banks first because they have market cap and valuation support: KB Financial is around 1.03 PBR and could re-rate toward 1.2. Korean securities are unattractive near term because trading volumes have halved and Mirae Asset faces political risk.
KBE LONG
KB LONG
Korean securities AVOID
006800.KS AVOID
Sell battery rallies.
Secondary battery stocks should be sold on rallies because the current market is driven by fast rotation, and the sector is unlikely to trend persistently higher.
Korean secondary batteries AVOID
Financials benefit from sticky high rates.
Korean financials are the clearest beneficiary of high, sticky interest rates. The sector is large enough for institutional rotation and should be held as a barbell with AI/semiconductors because financials rebounded strongest during market dips.
Korean financials LONG
Oil supported above $90.
Oil is staying above $90 because Middle East risks remain unresolved and attacks on ships with AIS off reduce traffic through Hormuz. This keeps upside pressure on crude despite occasional truce headlines.
BNO LONG
WTI LONG
Watch three market stress triggers.
Watch three trigger levels: 10-year Treasury yield at 5%, dollar index at 100, and Brent at 100. A breach in any of these would likely cause a major market shock.
US10Y WATCH
DXY WATCH
Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive.
Among shipbuilders, Samsung Heavy Industries looks attractive because it has no specific bad news and the sector was underowned in August. Order backlogs and rotation into shipbuilding support interest.
010140.KS LONG
Insurance first, banks second, securities last.
Insurance is the top financial subsector, followed by banks, then securities. Insurance and banks are defensive rate beneficiaries with dividends, while securities suffer from lower trading volumes and weak earnings.
Korean insurance LONG
Foreign selling pressure remains.
Foreigners still have not finished rebalancing out of Korean equities and are using Samsung and SK hynix buybacks as selling windows. With sentiment brittle and buying power absent, KOSPI is vulnerable to shocks and aggressive buying should wait.
EWY AVOID
Korean memory is not priority yet.
Medium-term investors who held through the July low should not exit in this consolidation. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are likely higher by December, but short-term traders should step aside and holders can hedge with inverse exposure rather than selling, as long as the July low holds.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
HIGH
11:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Leveraged ETFs
161890.KS
Cosmax 1ST
Cosmecca Korea
APR FLIP
▾
HIGH
Reduce leverage and margin exposure now.
Korea's margin/credit balance has risen back to about 33 trillion won, and adding leveraged ETF balances of roughly 5-6 trillion puts leveraged funds near 40 trillion won against only about 100 trillion won in deposits, which is excessive. With macro uncertainty, dried-up trading value, and repeated afternoon selling, any new bad news can trigger forced selling, so investors should cut credit/leverage exposure and keep cash rather than chase aggressively.
Leveraged ETFs AVOID
Buy cosmetics ODM leaders after consolidation.
Cosmetics-led consumer names are one of the two main sectors. The ODM leaders such as Kolmar Korea, Cosmax, and Cosmecca Korea led the rally from early August and are now in a normal rest/consolidation phase rather than a deep breakdown. The speaker expects that after the adjustment ends, these names will again give tradeable buying opportunities.
161890.KS LONG
Cosmax LONG
Cosmecca Korea LONG
Avoid late-rising cosmetics laggards now.
APR, Amorepacific, LG Household & Health Care, and Dalba Global were late followers in the cosmetics trade, rising only from mid-August after the ODM leaders had already moved. When funds concentrated, there was no one left to keep buying these already-crowded names, so the move broke down. The speaker warns investors to be cautious about these late-rising cosmetic laggards.
APR AVOID
090430.KS AVOID
LG Household & Health Care AVOID
AP AVOID
Watch AI data center value chain rotation.
AI data center value chain is one of the two main sectors. Funds have rotated through secondary batteries, SK Telecom, power equipment, shipbuilding, steel, and construction on AI data center issues. Power equipment names such as Hyosung Heavy Industries, Sanil Electric, LS Electric, and HD Hyundai Electric had long rests and showed late-session rotation, but the speaker says a meaningful trend does not yet exist and this is still the early stage of whether a trend will form.
Korean AI data center value chain WATCH
298040.KS WATCH
010120.KS WATCH
267260.KS WATCH
006400.KS WATCH
L&F WATCH
SK Telecom WATCH
000720.KS WATCH
004020.KS WATCH
Korean equities near bad-news exhaustion.
The speaker believes the negative macro news, especially Iran/oil and rate-related issues, is near its late stage and that the freshness of bad news is fading. From current levels, the probability of improvement is higher than the probability of further meaningful deterioration. However, a final selling climax could still occur, so he advises holding cash and waiting until after Chuseok for the higher-conviction account-growing window rather than making aggressive bets now.
EWY WATCH
KOSDAQ WATCH
Watch Samsung and Hynix range resolution.
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have not completed a technical rebound and have not confirmed a bottom. They are trading inside a narrowing range between key moving averages, and as those averages converge the range is getting smaller. The speaker says the next direction will be determined by whether good news or bad news emerges when the range resolves.
005930.KS WATCH
000660.KS WATCH
Fade foreign futures buying signals.
Ahead of futures expiration, foreign investors had cut their futures position to around 20,000 contracts. The speaker says that if foreigners start buying futures and pushing the index higher, it likely reflects arbitrage or opposite positioning and next-day reversal risk, so investors should reduce arbitrage-related exposure. If foreigners instead reduce futures, that is safer. The key edge is that market makers tend to position opposite to retail expectations.
KOSPI 200 futures WATCH
HIGH
10:20
Sep 03
Sep 03
AVGO
U.S. data centers
005930.KS 1ST
000660.KS 1ST
TSM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Broadcom AI chip boom with customer diversification.
Broadcom is benefiting from insatiable AI demand and offers a cheaper alternative silicon ecosystem to Nvidia as Nvidia systems are supply-tight and expensive. Broadcom's conference call signaled that Google, currently its largest customer, will become only the third-largest over the next two years as Anthropic becomes the largest customer followed by OpenAI, implying rapid diversification and scaling of new AI customers.
AVGO LONG
US light-touch AI rules boost data centers.
G20 AI principles support the US light-touch approach to AI regulation: no pre-emptive regulation, no new bodies, easier copyright rules, and encouragement of data center construction. This creates a favorable policy environment for US AI and data center buildout relative to Europe.
U.S. data centers LONG
Tariffs hit Samsung, SK hynix, TSMC.
Proposed US chip tariffs are most likely to hit Asian memory chip makers with large overseas facilities—Samsung, SK hynix, and possibly TSMC—because the tariff exemption depends on actual core manufacturing in the US, not just packaging or facilities, and these firms ship products into the US from overseas capacity.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
TSM AVOID
Yen weakening risk; BOJ already priced.
The Bank of Japan rate move is already priced in, and Japanese rates remain deeply negative. Keeping the yen at current stronger levels would require more than has been done, so the clear risk is that the yen weakens.
JPY SHORT
US equities resilient despite high yields.
US equities can continue to do well even with bond yields near 5% as long as growth and earnings stay resilient. Second-quarter earnings exceeded forecasts and 2027 estimates are being revised up because earnings are broadening beyond AI; the main risk would be a stagflation repricing, which is not the current base case.
SPY LONG
European manufacturing recovery can surprise higher.
European manufacturing is in a recovery that should remain strong over the next 6-12 months because companies have found alternatives to high energy costs, there is fiscal support in countries like Germany, and AI electrification is driving a mini factory cycle; the sector is less sensitive to energy prices and can surprise on the upside.
European manufacturing LONG
Chevron triples Venezuelan output within capex.
Chevron has agreed to invest $7 billion across three joint ventures in Venezuela over five years to more than triple production, with the fields holding many billions of barrels of heavy oil and output lasting decades. The investment was already in forward planning, so overall capital guidance is unchanged, and US refiners prefer this crude.
CVX LONG
HIGH
10:06
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD/JPY
Japan 30-year government bonds
DXY
TLT 1ST
JNK 1ST
▾
HIGH
BOJ hike risk fuels yen swings
Mark Cranfield says intervention is very unlikely because a real intervention move would be much bigger, but BOJ board member Takata opened the door to a larger-than-25-basis-point hike or back-to-back hikes, so traders are now pricing above 25 basis points and dollar-yen has slipped to 158, making the BOJ meeting a fluid event risk for the yen.
USD/JPY WATCH
Japanese long bonds look attractive
Japanese 30-year bonds look attractive after yields reached about 4% and the long end cheapened; he thinks the government pension fund is starting to put money back into the long end and today's 30-year JGB auction is probably going to be okay.
Japan 30-year government bonds LONG
Dollar downside risk persists
The US dollar faces downside risk from concerns about wide fiscal and current account deficits and rising long-end yields, creating a sell-America theme, but the decline should be drawn out because alternatives like the euro and yen are not yet compelling enough.
DXY WATCH
Bearish bonds on term premium risk
Hamza Ayub says he is bearish bonds because the US curve has risen without much term premium or interest rate volatility, real bond yields have gone up while inflation expectations are stable, and he sees the term premium potentially seeping into interest rate volatility, making him not very positive on bonds despite high carry.
TLT AVOID
Crossover credit offers carry sweet spot
He favors crossover credit over US investment-grade credit because crossover is the sweet spot with inefficiencies in benchmark-relative fixed-income allocation and offers significant carry and high real yields in dollars.
JNK LONG
China equities de-rated, policy support expected
China equities have significantly de-rated on investor concerns about business model monetization and negative economic surprises, but he expects policy support especially in the second half and sees this as a technically good strategic positioning opportunity.
FXI LONG
Positive global equities despite downside risk
He remains positive on global equities because broad global spending and investment themes are driving economic growth, though he keeps one eye on downside risk.
VT LONG
Diaspora inflows bolster rupee stability
India's diaspora deposit scheme delivered around $127 billion to $136 billion, far above estimates and about 3.1 percent of GDP; the dollars are swapped directly with the RBI, swelling reserves and giving the central bank more firepower to intervene and keep the rupee steady.
Indian rupee WATCH
Long equity volatility protects downside
He thinks long equity volatility is a very good opportunity because implied volatility has stayed low, individual stock volatility is high, and it allows portfolios to keep upside while protecting downside through optionality.
Equity volatility LONG
Taiwan chip demand ten-year supercycle
Taiwan semiconductor suppliers at SemiCon Taiwan say they do not see a fallback in demand at least into the early part of next decade, with one data-center NAND flash controller maker calling it a ten-year supercycle, so capacity and labor are bigger concerns than demand.
Taiwan semiconductor suppliers LONG
Gold target $5000, diversification intact
UBS's Joni Teves expects gold to edge higher to a $5,000 target because investor diversification, fiscal and debt sustainability concerns, central bank buying including China, and seasonal physical demand remain intact, with risks increasingly skewed to the upside.
GLD LONG
Silver to outperform gold into year-end
Silver has the potential to outperform gold into year-end due to its high beta to gold, supportive supply and demand fundamentals, and longer-term demand from vehicle electrification.
SILVER LONG
India vulnerable to yields and oil
India's foreign inflow recovery is at risk because higher global bond yields and oil prices reduce emerging-market appeal; Indian equities are expensive relative to EM and Asian peers, earnings growth is just starting, 90 percent of FPI holdings are US-based, and a weak rupee makes returns less favorable.
Indian equities AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Thread Guy
9h
HOOD 1ST
PUMP.FUN 1ST
PONS 1ST
FWA
Bonercoin
▾
HIGH
Robinhood Chain ecosystem is long-term opportunity.
Robinhood Chain resembles Solana Q4 2023 or Base Q1 2024 as an upstart ecosystem starting a longer rally, not a flash in the pan; Robinhood is a powerful distribution platform planning equities, collectibles, and portfolio assets onchain, and the chain did $3 million in network revenue in a day, so if crypto is in a bull market, investors need to be positioned on Robinhood Chain.
HOOD LONG
Launchpads with revenue are permanently underpriced.
Launchpads like Pump.fun and PONS have the clearest product-market fit in crypto, do millions of dollars in daily revenue even in bear markets, and trade at low buyback multiples; Pump.fun was around 10-15x FDV while PONS was around 1-2x, so launchpads are permanently underpriced and both are undervalued in an onchain bull market.
PUMP.FUN LONG
PONS LONG
FWA token alignment should eventually work.
FWA is another example of aligning users through a day-one token and he remains fully positioned; tokens are good for aligning incentives and attracting attention, so FWA should have its day in the sun even if it has lagged lately.
FWA LONG
Stock-paired memecoins tie cultural assets upward.
He is very bullish on Robinhood Chain's stock-paired memecoin primitive: AMM pools tie a memecoin directly to the underlying value driver, so a HIMS-paired coin like Bonercoin can track HIMS moves; pairing AI memes to Nvidia or pre-IPO shares instead of ETH raises ceilings and brings stock supply onchain.
Bonercoin LONG
Robinhood Chain stock-paired memecoins LONG
Bitcoin is bullish after worst bear market.
He is a permanent Bitcoin bull; with Bitcoin having held despite Saylor selling and lingering macro overhangs, it is hard to envision downside outside a macro collapse, so crypto is in bullish consolidation and now needs any reason to go up, with more reasons up than down.
BTC LONG
Solana benefits from Robinhood user spillover.
Rather than treating Solana and Robinhood Chain purely as PvP, he wants to be long both because Robinhood Chain can onboard new users and spill over to Solana, similar to Q4 2024 when Pump.fun and Virtuals both rallied.
SOL LONG
Avoid illiquid stock-paired memecoins during weekends.
Stock tokens on Robinhood Chain can only mint and redeem during market hours, so on weekends there is no arbitrage supply; illiquid onchain names like AMC can depeg dramatically, so traders should be careful buying stock-paired memecoins with poor onchain liquidity when markets are closed.
AMC onchain token AVOID
HIGH
10:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
SPY
TLT
▾
HIGH
Weak jobs push yields down, stocks up.
Park argues that US employment is already soft, and because consumption is about 70% of the US economy, weaker jobs will slow consumption and GDP growth, which will bring real yields down and push interest rates lower next year; that expected decline in yields should let the equity market rise even if 10-year Treasury yields trade in a 3.8%-4.5%/5% range.
SPY LONG
Rising yields create long-term bond opportunity.
He says the current rise in bond yields is not a disorderly bond dumping but is creating a rare long-term fixed-income opportunity: the MOVE index remains below its long-term average, the speed of rate increases and drawdowns are far milder than in 2022, and fixed-income managers such as PIMCO's global bond CIO and Steven Miller see current yields as attractive for long-term bond and fixed-income investors.
TLT LONG
HIGH
09:26
Sep 03
Sep 03
The Block
10h
AVAX
RWA perpetuals
ENA 1ST
HYPE 1ST
Black Opal
▾
HIGH
Avalanche wins as invisible embedded finance infrastructure.
Avalanche is positioning itself as the invisible infrastructure layer for consumer and embedded finance. EthenaPay launching exclusively on Avalanche shows the network can support better fintech products, while the payment collective, stablecoin/card rails, and RWA/tokenization push are designed to make Avalanche the backend for next-generation financial apps and draw non-crypto users.
AVAX LONG
RWA perps expand market to $150T.
Guy argues real-world asset perpetuals are a larger opportunity than crypto perpetuals, expanding the relevant market from about $2.5 trillion of crypto to roughly $150 trillion of traditional assets. He notes RWA perp volumes on Hyperliquid have already flipped crypto perps and views perps as the most efficient instrument for simple leveraged long/short exposure, making RWA perps/tokenization one of his highest-conviction growth areas.
RWA perpetuals LONG
HYPE LONG
EthenaPay vertical integration drives Ethena growth.
EthenaPay is Ethena's direct-to-consumer neobank built around save, send, and spend. It is the first time a dollar issuer at Ethena's scale has vertically integrated stablecoin issuance, yield generation, card interchange, on/off-ramps, and multi-currency savings, allowing Ethena to capture margins, offer the best savings yield, free FX and free on-ramps, and target a much larger non-crypto user base, which should help scale USDe supply back toward prior highs and beyond.
ENA LONG
Avalanche RWA products like Black Opal grow.
Avalanche is building out a real-world asset and credit/receivables stack. John specifically calls Black Opal a great product with fantastic yield and expects an RWA looping or RWA rush to bring capital back, with Securitize and other tokenization platforms forming a full on-chain finance stack that benefits Avalanche.
Black Opal LONG
HIGH
09:12
Sep 03
Sep 03
BNO
▾
LOW
Brent crude muted as escalation stays contained
Despite renewed US-Iran military escalation and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states, Brent crude has not moved much because traders view the escalation as contained and short-lived; energy traders are watching whether the back-and-forth stays contained or broadens while diplomacy remains absent.
BNO WATCH
LOW
09:07
Sep 03
Sep 03
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS
MU
SNDK
285A.T
▾
HIGH
Foreign rebalancing not over; buybacks enable selling.
Foreign investors have not finished reducing their Korea exposure because their Korea market weight is still elevated. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix buybacks are giving foreign investors a good opportunity to sell into strength, so there is still more selling capacity than fresh buying demand near term.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
EWY AVOID
Watch Micron/SanDisk/Kioxia to lead Korean memory.
Foreign inflows into Korean memory names will only resume if global storage and memory names such as Micron, SanDisk, and Kioxia rally first. That would signal renewed global appetite for memory and justify buying Korean memory stocks; until then, there is no FX-led foreign buying support.
MU WATCH
SNDK WATCH
285A.T WATCH
Energy bottlenecks delay AI data center buildouts.
AI earnings and capex are strong, but the market is worried about execution because data center buildouts face power bottlenecks. PJM capacity auction prices rose about 10x year-on-year, new AI data centers may be excluded from grid interconnection, Bloom Energy fuel cells are limited to about 2GW, LNG prices are rising, and nuclear is not being approved, so near-term AI infrastructure delivery is uncertain.
SMH WATCH
One-year horizon: semiconductors likely higher.
For investors who can wait one year and do not need to trade short-term volatility, semiconductors are likely higher than current levels. Therefore, long-term holders with capacity should hold through this volatile period rather than panic.
Korean semiconductor sector LONG
Short-term traders should raise cash.
If an investor is already trading short-term and has taken losses, the speaker advises selling and raising cash rather than forcing positions in a low-visibility, liquidity-constrained tape. Long-term holders with deeper losses are told to hold.
CASH LONG
Yen carry unwind risk remains low.
The yen carry unwind risk is currently low because Japan is raising rates while also easing fiscal policy to manage its enormous debt burden; this prevents strong yen appreciation. Even if the BOJ hikes, rapid or aggressive tightening is unlikely, so a fast carry-trade unwind is not expected.
FXY WATCH
Watch 10yr 5%, DXY 100, Brent 100.
The speaker is monitoring three break levels for a potential major market shock: US 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, the US Dollar Index above 100, and Brent crude above $100. If any one breaks, the market impact could be severe.
US10Y WATCH
DXY WATCH
Weak payrolls would hit consumer and banks.
If the upcoming nonfarm payroll report is much weaker than expected, markets will question the AI-led growth narrative and start seeing broader US economic weakness; consumer discretionary and bank stocks would likely be hit. Employment merely in line is the benign outcome.
XLY WATCH
KBE WATCH
Global bond selloff reflects debt debasement distrust.
Global government bond yields are rising not just on US strength but because markets distrust countries that are debasing their currencies and inflating away debt; this debasement trade is visible in Europe and Japan as well. The speaker therefore cannot fully trust dovish Fed messaging, and bond selloff risk remains.
IEF SHORT
Oil remains elevated on unresolved Mideast risk.
Oil is not breaking down because the market sees the Iran-Trump tanker truce as incomplete and the Middle East conflict as unresolved. WTI is holding above $90 and Brent remains elevated, with geopolitical risk premium keeping oil sticky. High oil is becoming a persistent inflation input.
WTI LONG
BNO LONG
HIGH
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