Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Supply-chain executives reportedly see no Nvidia order cuts, while Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) argues Kress's leadership is negative for Nvidia-centric financing.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia after Huang
Reports of unchanged 2027 Nvidia orders contrasted with @michaelsikand, who sold all their Nvidia shares.
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Market Radar →Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says Kress's leadership is negative for Nvidia-centric ecosystems and financing
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) argues suppliers like Coherent that sell to everyone with long-term visibility are more isolated, citing reports that Kress challenged Huang's proposed customer investments, including deals involving Lambda, and that cloud executives have now considered AMD and Google TPUs.
My personal opinion is that Kress leadership is negative for $NVDA centric ecosystems and its financing.
Nvidia-centric partners look more exposed than broad suppliers such as Coherent, in Serenity's view.
Watch Whether cloud providers move toward AMD or Google TPUs.
Source →Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) still likes AXT after a $13-to-$140-to-$45 round trip in their position
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) cites near-term backlog rising from $100 million to $500 million, an annualized Q4 P/E compressed to 18.8x before 2027 capacity expansion and price hikes, and confirmed counterparty visibility with LITE and COHR.
I personally love $AXTI here, even after I watched my position round trip $13 -> $140 -> $45.
China risk remains a wildcard given Nvidia's scandals and China hawks in Washington.
Watch AXT's 2027 capacity expansion and price hikes.
Source →Four upstream executives reportedly say Nvidia orders are unchanged for 2027
Despite rumors of cuts after Huang's scandal, the executives say 2027 orders are unchanged and mass-production orders look ahead to 2028; an insider said the company expects orders to remain strong for the next two to three years.
There have been no order cuts for Nvidia, according to four senior executives in the upstream semiconductor supply chain.
One insider says the GPU-versus-ASIC landscape may partly shift toward ASICs, but the AI industry will not experience a bubble.
Watch Any revision to Nvidia's 2027 or 2028 orders.
Source →SMIC posted record 3Q26 revenue of $3.19 billion at 97.3% utilization
Revenue rose 6.1% quarter over quarter and 33.9% year over year on AI peripheral pull-ins, with gross margin at 29.9%; 4Q26 guidance calls for revenue up 4% to 6% at a 26% to 28% gross margin.
SMIC 3Q26 - Revenue up 6.1% q/q and 33.9% y/y to ATH $3.19B;
China is 90.8% of SMIC's revenue, and FY26 revenue is above $12 billion, up 30%.
Watch Whether 4Q26 gross margin holds within the 26% to 28% guide.
Source →CoreWeave reportedly seeks a $4 billion Meta-backed loan at about 7.5%
The rate is well below the 16% yield on CoreWeave's unsecured bonds but higher than the 5.9% it secured in March.
$CRWV is seeking a $4B loan backed by $META contracts at ~7.5% which is well below 16% yield on its
Investment-grade customers locked into long-term contracts make financing new AI capacity cheaper.
Watch Final terms of the Meta-backed loan.
Source →