Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit split over AMD's valuation after earnings and flagged Supermicro's negative operating cash flow despite quadrupled revenue.
Themes on this desk
AMD after earnings
One poster estimates AMD's 2027 revenue near $100B with data center over 80% of revenue, while another argues AMD is overvalued because Nvidia makes about 25x its profit but is worth only about 6x as much.
Midterm drawdowns
One post notes the S&P rose a year after every midterm since 1954, but in 6 of 18 cases it first fell 7% or more.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeSupermicro's operating cash flow was negative despite quadrupled revenue
The post says Supermicro quadrupled revenue to $19.9bn and earned $1.6bn last quarter, but cash from operations was negative at −$434m and the full-year guide implies smaller second-half quarters.
Supermicro quadrupled revenue to $19.9bn and earned $1.6bn last quarter.
Strong profit is not converting to operating cash.
Source →An Uber holder sees about $121 probability-weighted value
The author holds Uber and presents a 2029 FCF-minus-SBC scenario analysis arguing the bear case is largely priced in, with a probability-weighted target of about $121.
UBER Analysis before earnings Disclaimer : I redacted my post partially with AI as English isn't my main language.Source →
VICI beats Realty Income on most numbers, with Caesars as the catch
The author argues VICI has a higher yield, faster dividend growth, less debt and a cheaper AFFO multiple than Realty Income but carries Caesars concentration risk, while O offers tenant diversification with little dividend growth; the author holds both.
I put Realty Income and VICI side by side. VICI wins almost every number. The catch is Caesars.Source →
Fiserv trades at about 8x this year's earnings guidance after a 75% drawdown
The author notes Fiserv is 75% below its 2025 high and trades at about 8x this year's earnings guidance, asks whether the guidance is trustworthy, and discloses no position.
Fiserv is 75% below its 2025 high and trades at 8x this year's earnings guidance Fiserv closed at $58.40 onSource →
Samsung sees 8nm-and-below utilization topping 100% in 2027
A news-style post says Samsung sees 8nm-and-below utilization topping 100% in 2027 and 2nm projects more than doubling, alongside Taylor fab bookings and narrowing foundry losses.
Samsung Sees 8nm-and-Below Utilization Topping 100% in 2027;Source →
Most argued
by comments per upvoteWalchandnagar Industries is positioned for an NPCIL End Shield tender of over ₹100 crore
The post highlights Walchandnagar Industries' positioning for an NPCIL End Shield tender potentially exceeding ₹100 crore, with outcome confirmation expected within about a month.
Walchandnagar Industries Set for Major Nuclear Business Opportunity; ₹100 Crore+ End Shield Procurement in Focus ​
Watch NPCIL End Shield tender outcome within about a month.
Source →A WSB poster argues existing capacity and neoclouds win if no new data centers are built
The author argues no new data centers will be built under the new Congress, making existing capacity and neoclouds winners, with INTC as a hedge against a Taiwan blockade-driven AI bust.
Did the AI bubble burst last week? Absoultely NOT!Source →
A value investor asks whether Nvidia could de-rate like Micron
The author says Nvidia looks considerably undervalued on standard PE metrics but asks whether it could de-rate to about 5x earnings like Micron, given semiconductor cyclicality.
Nvidia just another Micron Nvidia looks considerably undervalued right now, using all the standard PE metrics.Source →