Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
On X, Gavin Baker said $100 billion-plus year-end ARR looks possible again for Anthropic, and ChairmansLedger said Meta is raising up to $95 billion in equity.
Themes on this desk
Anthropic S-1
ChairmansLedger highlighted $11.6 billion of Q2 revenue on $5.6 billion of compute spend; Gavin Baker said Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after token price cuts.
Meta equity raise
ChairmansLedger said Meta is raising up to $95 billion in equity days after guiding up to $145 billion of capex, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom interested in up to $5 billion.
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Market Radar →Citrini's Agentic Utilities basket beat SOXX by about 38% over six months
Citrini says the basket's drawdown from YTD highs is -9% versus SOXX's -27%, after BAND and TWLO posted strong results.
Our Agentic Utilities basket has outperformed SOXX by about 38% over the last six months.
Citrini points to AI driving earnings beats outside the semiconductor complex.
Source →Gavin Baker says Anthropic ARR likely went vertical in October after token price cuts
Baker says the same thing happened across the AI market, which is why GPU rental prices surged while token prices declined, and that $100 billion-plus in year-end ARR looks possible again.
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, that Anthropic ARR has likely gone vertical in October after they cut token prices.
Baker ties falling token prices to rising GPU rental prices across the market.
Watch Anthropic's year-end ARR against $100 billion.
Source →TSMC's A14 node is reported to shrink SRAM bitcells below 0.017 µm²
Jukan, citing Korean media, says SRAM bitcells have been stuck at 0.021 µm² since N5 in 2020, and A14 would put TSMC ahead of Intel's 18A at 0.021 µm².
TSMC is finally set to resume SRAM scaling with its A14 node, following a stall that began after N5, according
Smaller bitcells fit more cache into the same area, affecting performance and power efficiency.
Source →Anthropic earned $2.08 of revenue per compute dollar in Q2 2026, up from $0.40
ChairmansLedger says Anthropic posted $11.6 billion of Q2 revenue on $5.6 billion of compute spend while compute spend still rose 6x.
The bears’ best argument is does the spend generate ROI. Well this answers it.
The account expects Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon to sound confident on capex this week.
Watch Hyperscaler capex commentary this week.
Source →Meta's raise combines forward sales, a mandatory convertible and a $60 billion ATM
Zerohedge details $22.5 billion of Class A stock via forward sales, $12.5 billion of mandatory convertible preferred and a $60 billion Class C at-the-market program starting in Q1 2027. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom indicated non-binding interest in up to $5 billion.
Here is what META is selling:
Three of Meta's biggest chip suppliers indicated interest in buying its stock.
Watch Start of the Class C at-the-market program in Q1 2027.
Source →