Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Celestica guided 2027 revenue to $40.0 billion, Gavin Baker argued Anthropic's margins can rise as token prices fall, and StoneX initiated Lumentum and Coherent at Buy.
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Market Radar →Gavin Baker: revenue per GPU can rise as token prices fall
Baker argued Anthropic's revenue and margins can both go up as token prices go down if GPU prices rise less than the product of the token-price decline and the per-GPU throughput increase.
Revenue per GPU can increase as token prices decline if per GPU token throughput increases enough.
Ties lab margins to per-GPU throughput gains rather than token prices alone.
Watch Token price declines against GPU price increases.
Source →An expert put GB300 rack pricing at $6.3 million in Q3'26 and Rubin racks at $8 million
The expert said Nvidia's GB300 rack delivery pricing was $6 million in Q2'26 and went up to $6.3 million in Q3'26, and that the Rubin rack is currently priced at $8 million per rack.
Expert: Nvidia's GB300 rack delivery pricing was $6 milion in Q2'26, and went up to $6.3 million in Q3'26.
Puts a price on Nvidia's next rack generation.
Watch Rubin rack pricing as deliveries begin.
Source →Nebius carries 0.22x debt to market cap versus 1.17x at CoreWeave
The post lists debt to market cap of 0.01x at Microsoft, 0.05x at Meta, 0.22x at Nebius, 0.33x at Oracle and 1.17x at CoreWeave, and says Nebius is spending $20–25B of capex on $3.0–3.4B of revenue this year.
$NBIS Nebius is the only "NeoCloud" with a balance sheet that looks like a hyperscaler’s. Debt to market cap:
Separates Nebius from more leveraged neoclouds and the bitcoin miners turned AI hosts.
Watch Nebius earnings on November 12.
Source →Celestica guided 2027 revenue to $40.0 billion, up 90%, after a Q3 beat
Q3 revenue was $5.83 billion, up 83%, and adjusted EPS $3.30, both above the high end of guidance. FY26 revenue guidance was raised to $21.0 billion, while the FCF outlook was lowered to $460 million on working capital investment for the 2027 ramp.
CELESTICA $CLS Q3'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $5.83B (Est. $5.47B) ; +83% YoY, above high end of guide Adj. EPS:
A record 8.5% adjusted operating margin came with a 9.0% margin outlook for 2027.
Watch Q4 revenue against the $6.275 billion to $6.575 billion guide.
Source →StoneX initiated Lumentum and Coherent at Buy with $1,200 and $425 targets
Per the notes, Lumentum management's demand timeline moved from late 2028/late 2029 to late 2027/early 2028. Coherent's management targets more than doubling InP capacity again by year-end 2027 and expects a quarter above $3B of revenue by FY27-end.
StoneX initiated $LITE and $COHR at Buy today, with targets of $1,200 and $425. Some specifics from the notes...
Per the notes, Lumentum's NPO momentum brings its FY28 investment case forward.
Watch Coherent's Zurich production in H1 2027 and the initial scale-out CPO ramp in Q4 2026.
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