Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
r/ValueInvesting authors priced EQT's all-stock Range deal and Criteo's cash and free cash flow, while an r/UraniumSqueeze sum-of-the-parts put Cameco above even a moon-case valuation.
Themes on this desk
Anthropic S-1 valuation
Reddit authors called Anthropic's finances solid but its reported ~$2T valuation expensive, flagged extreme customer concentration and $450B of near-non-cancellable cloud commitments, and one commenter compared AI models to early internet b
Highest engagement
by score · day changeCriteo trades at ~$700m market cap with ~$300m cash and ~$180m TTM FCF
The author discloses a recently built long position, arguing the valuation is too cheap if earnings merely stabilize rather than keep collapsing, with aggressive buybacks.
CRTO: ~$700m Market Cap, ~$300m Cash, ~$180m TTM FCF — What Am I Missing? *First investment write-up here.
The post sets ~$300m of cash against a ~$700m market cap.
Watch Whether Criteo's earnings stabilize.
Source →EQT's all-stock deal values Range at $54.91 a share, 20.6% above its close
On the October 23 closes, 0.987 EQT shares equal $54.91 per Range share, 20.6% above Range's close. The author discloses a long EQT position and questions Range's implied premium.
EQT and Range merge. On the October 23 closes, 0.987 EQT shares is $54.91 per Range share, 20.6% above Range's
Sets Range holders' value at a fixed 0.987 EQT shares.
Watch The gap between Range's price and 0.987 EQT shares.
Source →A Cameco sum-of-the-parts says $78.60 still needs the moon case
Cameco is down 41% since January, and the author argues $78.60 is above even a moon-case valuation. They watch for entries near $44 and $32 and disclose long LEU and URNM calls.
Cameco is down 41% since January. On my sum-of-the-parts, $78.60 still needs the moon case.
Argues the shares still price in the most optimistic case.
Watch Cameco trading near $44 or $32.
Source →oRo (3983.T) holds a third of its market cap in net cash
The author argues oRo's net cash and cloud growth make the shares cheap, priced as if cash flow shrinks forever, while flagging near-term contract and retention risks ahead of Q3 results.
oRo (3983.T): Tokyo accounting software with a third of its market cap in net cash, priced as if cash flow
Net cash covers a third of the market cap.
Watch oRo's Q3 results.
Source →A PagerDuty bear holds December $17.50 puts after a 160% rally
The author holds 20 December $17.50 puts, arguing PagerDuty's 160% six-month rally on only 5% growth is unjustified given a commodity product, customer exits to competitors and a street price target 30% below spot.
A Ber position worth taking? Position: 20x $17.50p 12/18 PagerDuty tripled off its April low on vibes.
Earnings in mid-November are the catalyst for the bear case.
Watch PagerDuty's mid-November earnings.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteA Reddit (RDDT) holder goes into earnings after a 5% drop
The author holds RDDT into earnings, citing a history of beating guidance and improving ad quality, and notes the stock was down 5% at 137 as they wrote.
RDDT pre-earnings assessment Reddit -5% at 137 as I am writing this.
A history of beats is the holder's case going into the print.
Watch RDDT's earnings results.
Source →A GOOGL holder averaged down to ~$347
The author has held GOOGL since ~$354 and averaged down to ~$347, arguing mega-cap AI names have cash flows to absorb AI spending and are not priced like dot-com bubble peaks.
Do we Agree on GOOGL? GOOGL has been a frustrating name to hold.
Argues mega-cap cash flows can absorb AI spending.
Source →